gymengineer

The first forecasts for storm surge, beginning on Friday for coastal GA and SC have the water level at #4 all time at Fort Pulaski, GA (close to the water level from the October 1947 hurricane) and #10 all time at Charleston, SC (close to the water level from Hurricane David in 1979). The river/water forecasts don’t extend into Saturday yet; I would guess Friday overnight’s high tides would be even higher as Ian gets to Georgia. And all this is without a forecast track yet of Ian making it offshore and headed back toward the GA/SC coast.

Northeast eyewall

Allan’s graphic, as always, is super helpful to see the range of landfall points and why it’s always so hard to nail down the exact landfall location on the west coast of Florida:

It was a buoy mission.

955 mb

Both the HWRF and HMON are so much more intense at landfall than yesterday’s runs. The HMON shows a Cat 4 landfall just northwest of Ft. Myers and the HWRF shows a mid Category 3 landfall at Indian Shores.

There was something weird about that particular dropsonde though. It happened before the 961 mb dropsonde in the eye and was labeled northwest eyewall.

Yup, Charleston is already forecasted to reach major flood stage on Thursday just from the northeasterly fetch. Their third highest water level was from Irma when the center was in southwestern Georgia. Ian’s wind field is not going to be as large as Irma’s, but a track overwater toward the SC coast would push saltwater flooding even higher.

The Euro still does its thing to otherwise level headed people. After the 6Z run today, there were so many accredited meteorologists on Twitter explaining why because that model consistently underdeveloped Ian, once it finally picked up the strength of the vortex, of course it caved to the GFS solution of stronger means further west….and therefore possible minimal effects on the FL west coast. Now, with one single 18Z run, the same rush to explain, except now it’s for the south of Tampa landfall, is building.

And then Elsa underperformed the storm surge warnings a season later, even though it was at hurricane status closer to Tampa. So the size of the wind field and lead time fetch matter a lot for storm surge height, especially in the GOM.

Are you all comparing the same frame? 72 hours on the 18Z Euro is 18Z on Wednesday. Compared to 18Z Wednesday on the 12Z run, it’s a bit further north, not west.

The 18Z GFS is still showing the “yank” NNW to place the center just south of the NS coast.

With another "I" storm possibly bringing significant damage to the US, I thought it would be a quick, interesting exercise to see how much "I" storms have cost the US in just the past two decades. I left out Iniki because Iniki was the third name used that season from the Central Pacific list, not the ninth. These damage totals are in 2022 CPI adjusted dollars. Isabel (2003): $8.7 Billion Ivan (2004): $31.6 Billion Ike (2008): $40.2 Billion Irene (2011): $17.4 Billion Isaac (2012): $3.5 Billion Irma (2017): $59.5 Billion Imelda (2019): $5.7 Billion Isaias (2020): $5.3 Billion Ida (2021): $78.7 Billion Total: $250.6 Billion in damage As a frame of reference, this amount is close to the total damage to the US from the 2005 hurricane season, and about 80% the total damage from 2017, the two costliest seasons by far.

Why does it seem the former director of the NHC does not know about the best track files tipping off impending upgrades?

At 48 hours is where it splits for the GFS ensemble members. The northern tracks turn NW while the southern group continues WNW for one more day.

This is a fairly obvious point, but it’s hard to get the landfall city nailed down in advance when you have a hurricane moving northward (NNE or NNW) toward the west coast of the peninsula part of Florida…given the angles along the coastline. Both Charley and Irma were forecast to landfall significantly further north less than 24 hours before the actual landfall. If this storm is going to the panhandle instead, it’s an easier forecast.

After Temple’s ridiculously good premier in the EAGL Championships where they won last year, I’ve been following the program this whole season. Didn’t watch EAGL’s session 1 today, but I did look at scores and saw Temple did well to break 196 in the first session. Congrats on your daughter being a part of a surging program!

I still enjoy small events too. I took pictures of pavement being covered Friday evening. And I really enjoyed the 2” we got on the scraps of another Boston blizzard on 1/26/2015. Comparing to what’s happening in other locations only limits the ability to actually enjoy falling snow. And comparing to 09/10, as you said, is bonkers. Just simply on a return period way of thinking, it took about 110 years to have a return on 1898/1899. The fact that DCA was the site for beating 54” vs. in NW DC, and you can add in even more years. (BWI and IAD clearing 70”- even more absurd!) I gladly regard that winter as the winter of a lifetime snow-wise, but even there, other more recent winters have produced extremes in ways 2009/2010 didn’t. Like, mid-February through early March 2015, with the extreme cold that never happened during 09/10, plus multiple moderate to major snow events and the top March freezing rain event, sits very high on my enjoyment list.

We got in the scraps of the storm that this one has been compared to many times because of the Euro/NAM failure in NYC. Boston did get crushed to start their record snow blitz: 1/26/2015. 1-3” started falling in the evening in our area as the coastal was deepening too far east to deliver 20-30” for NYC.

I don’t understand how someone with so little control over his temper, reverting back to a toddler-like mindset, thinks telling other people to “grow up” makes any sense.

There is no confusion actually when people are just posting around your posts. You’re the one who’s confused about the importance your sequence of posts.

Anyone else seeing blue flashes every ten minutes or so? Power is flickering here in North Bethesda, but in the flicker off moments, the blue flashing is pretty eerie.

You’ve seen enough moderate snowstorms (6-8”) that I don’t know if it’s worth it to travel just for another one. I get you may want to be back early, but home cooked meals also are a luxury you’ll probably miss one day in the future. Maybe that would be an interesting poll question- what threshold of snow would it be worth it to travel for? The way I see it, I’ve already experienced five 20”+ snowstorms so far in southeast Montgomery County. So to travel, it would have to be for something extraordinary. Like if I would only get 5” while somewhere relatively close is getting 45”.

Oh, his Annapolis tornado antics is just one example. And his response to other meteorologists’ criticism of him for that reinforced a pattern.