gymengineer

Preliminary recorded wind gust of 205 mph: https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2023-10-31-hurricane-otis-extreme-wind-preliminary-report

The 18Z GFS fantasy hurricane manages to outdo Gilbert for Jamaica, repeat a version of Flora for Cuba, and then Cleo for Miami all in one journey .

The Lidia (10/10/23 landfall), Norma (10/21/23 landfall), Otis (10/25/23 landfall) sequence has got to be a record or tied a record for most hurricane landfalls in a single country in that short period of time, right? Let alone the more astonishing fact of a Cat 4 and Cat 5 landfall separated by only 15 days in a single country- I can’t imagine that that’s ever happened in recorded history.

From npr today- Conditions are grim in the city. https://www.npr.org/2023/10/27/1208982615/acapulco-mexico-hurricane-otis

Seriously, though, this is one of those instances where it feels like someone controls the weather, not predicts it. I mean that in the best way possible. Just wow.

It’s already 22 mph/G 31 mph with the arrival of the first rain band at DCA. Not hard to imagine getting to frequent 40 mph+ gusts tomorrow at that location.

62 kt surface from a dropsonde in the SW band…maintaining. Ophelia was modeled to be a pulse-y storm with center jumps, etc. We happened to witness one very quick pulse up because of the timing of recon.

From 992 mb for the 2 pm advisory to 987/986 mb in about an hour and 15 minutes.

The Mid-Atlantic thread on this is moving quicker.

Yup, almost as soon as the plane reached the northwest side: hurricane-force flight level winds and 60+ kt unflagged SFMR

TS Ophelia-60 mph

The winds are decent on the east side too with only low clouds. I wonder what they’ll find in the northwest side.

The wind’s kind of surprising given the lack of convection in the areas probed so far.

That the “x” is orange, not red, on the NHC website is indicating they think there’s a 40% this system remains extra-tropical the whole time, right? If that were the case, it would never get a name, but the warnings would remain?

The record at Lewes was set by the January 2016 blizzard, which displaced the previous record from Ash Wednesday.

I know people have pointed out issues with these gust products, but here are the "peak" panels from various 12Z model runs: https://weather.us/model-charts/standard/maryland/gusts-1h-3h-mph/20230923-1800z.html https://weather.us/model-charts/conus-hd/maryland/gusts-mph/20230923-1800z.html https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/maryland/gusts-3h-mph/20230924-0300z.html https://weather.us/model-charts/gbr/maryland/gusts-1h-3h-mph/20230924-0000z.html https://weather.us/model-charts/can/maryland/gusts-3h-mph/20230923-2100z.html

I know I haven’t posted much lately so maybe I missed something… did some other sub-forums turn to no moderation as practice? The New England sub-forum reads as a “post anything you want.”

I just popped into the New England sub-forum

A lot of focus was on the storm surge record at Cedar Key, but it looks like Steinhatchee also easily broke its record set by Hermine. And Clearwater Beach had its highest water level as well, breaking the record set by the 1993 Superstorm. St. Petersburg was really close to its record water level as well, ending up a close second.

What’s happening right now in SE Virginia is a bit unexpected, right? TS-force gusts and a solid rain shield…covered by wind advisories and coastal flood warnings.

Charleston at 9+ ft above MLLW about half an hour ahead of high tide: https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/map/index.html?id=8665530 This event could slip between Matthew and Irma for #4.

Time sensitive- but it’s fascinating to me that one of the planes’ sole flight pattern for the past couple of hours is to find winds- and maybe pressure, which it did find- to justify an 11 pm upgrade to Major Hurricane status. Meanwhile the other one is doing “normal” geographical sweeps through quadrants.

Whoops, glanced too quick. Thanks for pointing that out!

Two things that make Idalia seem ominous: 1) The forecast track adjustments for multiple advisories in a row is heading toward the biggest population centers, not away (e.g. Irma away from Miami, and at the end, Ian away from Tampa Bay). One more eastward adjustment brings landfall to Cedar Key, and that track change plus any increase in intensity forecast would send the 5-8’ storm surge zone to include Tampa Bay. 2) There was so much more notice for Ian and especially Irma (Cat 5 monster days away). Tuesday night, Idalia will be at the latitude of Tampa Bay. We’re going to be within the ideal start of the evacuation timeframe by the end of this evening.

It happens quite a bit… when recon is investigating but the package has to go out. The NHC isn’t shy about issuing updates whenever.