gymengineer

There was a period when the eyewall was onshore (see pic), but a westward jog moved it back offshore. NHC is still saying a WNW motion, so we'll see what the next hour or two brings.

Beryl still is gaining latitude. The southwest "corner" of Jamaica where the coastline is pretty much running east-west could definitely get the eyewall head-on in a couple of hours.

Very impressive NW eyewall dropsonde

Probably stronger than most of us expected at this point!

This 12Z HWRF run is just the worst case scenario intensity-wise for the rest of Beryl's time. Slams into Jamaica as a Cat 4. After that Cozumel and Yucatan LF, the end of the run has an expanding Cat 3 Beryl headed toward the Texas coast.

The end of the 12Z HWRF run has a Cat 3 Beryl off the TX coast southeast of Port Lavaca/Port O'Connor.

The reports for both Ian and Michael pointed out the analyses that they couldn’t do in real time. Michael took 5 new layers of analysis to justify the upgrade, including land-based Doppler data, pressure-wind relationship, satellite analysis, and deep dive into missing SMFR data. Ian required analysis of P-3 Tail Doppler data, scrubbing of originally flagged SMFR data similar in value (high 130’s) that this Beryl pass just yielded, and the assumptions of undersampling to arrive at the upgrade. My point is that we just don’t know what they may be looking at post season.

8 pm: 155 mph My guess is, if they never operationally go to 160 mph, Beryl will be a post season upgrade in the same style as Michael and Ian.

Eye dropsonde suggests 938 mb.

Are you also seeing a lot of missing SFMR values, though, from that NE eye pass? (The SFMR values in the SW quadrant were higher than what I can find from the NE.)

It's the 12:00 pm observation that's the question right now. See the post right before yours. BTW, so people don't have to google it, Point Salines International Airport is what Bishop International Airport used to be called.

The graphic in that now deleted post showed the readings coming from the St. George, Grenada area, so that would also be Maurice Bishop International Airport. It's not all adding up at the moment. Even disregarding the 161 mph gust, there's still a huge difference between 50ish mph gusts as the poster claimed was observed from the webcam vs. a 121 mph gust that the NHC itself posted.

I think we have to wait for more information because, as shown in the graphic Chinook posted, the METAR with the 105 kt gust came from TGPY- Maurice Bishop International Airport.

The NHC's first forecast has a 90 mph hurricane moving over Jamaica at 2 pm on 7/3.

The storm surge video from Surfside Beach yesterday is quite impressive for a weaker tropical storm. Huge fetch of wind. https://abcnews.go.com/US/tropical-storm-alberto-makes-landfall-mexico-storm-surge/story?id=111271126

More DCA stuff- yesterday morning marked the most consecutive days of 1” snow cover since 1/16. 8 days consecutive beats 1/19.

I am very glad that you are back; we've overlapped in years of posting. I stopped being active here after the 2020/2021 season. There were so many actual Winter Storm Warnings issued that far unperformed that season that I just didn't feel like following the weather anymore. But, I guess this season is pulling me back as well.

If DCA manages 3” tomorrow, they’ll be past 50% of their seasonal climo. Then, they would need 13.4” the rest of the season to get to 150%- doable in one storm if this season ends up ultimately following analogs. Or, with just 2 moderate storms…

Annapolis is forecast in the very short term to end up with higher water levels than Connie (1955) and Fran (1996). Isabel is first with the Chesapeake/Potomac Hurricane being second (1933), and this forecast for the upcoming high tide would be third. Cambridge, MD, is forecast in the very short term to end up with the second highest water level behind Isabel. This storm is still playing out in terms of effects throughout the region.

Just my opinion- DCA at 52 mph is a pretty impressive SE wind considering Isabel’s peak gust wasn’t that much higher at 58 mph. (Irene and Sandy’s winds were in more common directions.) IAD actually slightly exceeded Isabel’s highest gust there. The sustained winds were of course more impressive in Isabel.

DCA- 52 mph IAD- 49 mph BWI- 47 mph

https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/hydrograph.php?wfo=lwx&gage=axtv2 Alexandria flooding exceeding guidance for this high tide cycle.

Driver rescued this morning clinging to a tree: https://wtop.com/weather-news/2023/12/noreaster-bringing-rain-winds-chilly-temps-to-dc-area/

I grew up in Potomac and vividly remember this event as well. The severe weather knocked out power in my neighborhood before the flip. The winds kept being gusty after the flip so it was a very wintry couple of hours. Most of it melted by morning.