
gymengineer
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Everything posted by gymengineer
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That Sampit River boat reading of 120 mph (~60 ft elevation) would again support a higher maximum gust estimate in the RMW zone. Since I support the NHC's assigned landfall intensity, the other data indicating Category 4 is what made his wind map based on damage to trees and structures stand out as an outlier. Hmm, to add some more confusion, this other map does not match the original one I imbedded. It's somehow tied to Fujita as well, but has a zone of 145 mph+ gusts:
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Here's one: Hugo was clearly a Category 4 in its SC landfall based on recon data. The wind map of peak gusts created by Fujita himself was strangely tepid in the eyewall zone. It's even more curious since the Fujita scale wind increments would later be *lowered* after his death, meaning his own estimates of wind speeds corresponding to levels of damage were deemed as over-estimates.
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The Seasonal Snowfall Futility Markers
gymengineer replied to North Balti Zen's topic in Mid Atlantic
IAD pulled off 0.6" today-- must be from the squalls. They are now 0.6" away from a tie. -
The Seasonal Snowfall Futility Markers
gymengineer replied to North Balti Zen's topic in Mid Atlantic
It melted on paved surfaces soon after sunrise, and by late March, the sun is up during most people's commute. So you're definitely right that it had minimal commuting impacts. I just enjoy a moderate snowstorm no matter what time of year. Seeing grass completely covered makes me happy. -
The Seasonal Snowfall Futility Markers
gymengineer replied to North Balti Zen's topic in Mid Atlantic
Wait, how did it accumulate on streets here and not where you are? See the photos from Wheaton and Savage: https://www.washingtonpost.com/amphtml/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2013/03/25/beautiful-spring-snow-blankets-washington-d-c-area/ I'm pretty sure Matt has posted pics of snow on paved surfaces in DC that early morning too. -
The Seasonal Snowfall Futility Markers
gymengineer replied to North Balti Zen's topic in Mid Atlantic
And I will still enjoy that 3" slop storm. I have very pleasant memories of 3/24-25/13. My jumping date is 4/7 in any winter-- the end date of the last ground covering snow in my lifetime. (1990- 3.8" at IAD) -
Best Mid-Atlantic winter storm of the last 40 years
gymengineer replied to PrinceFrederickWx's topic in Mid Atlantic
Area is one measure. Population impacted is another. There's mixed data for the two, but again, based on what everyone is describing in this thread, it all comes down to what the storms did in each person's backyard. Here's NCDC's population data (compiled for the RSI) that I posted in another thread, normalized to the 2010 census data: For population affected by >=20": 1) 1/96: 28,928,278 2) 1/16: 21,000,936 3) 2/03: 19,242,275 4) 12/47: 13,501,073 5) 2/13: 10,662,789 For population affected by >=30": 1) 2/69 (late February New England storm): 2,009,520 2) 11/50: 1,207,570 3) 2/78: 1,169,430 4) 1/16: 1,121,182 5) 3/93: 729,753 6) late 2/10 (the NY storm): 677,436 7) 1/66 (including lake effect): 611,484 8) looks off with a huge spread in dates (2/25/1900- 3/2/1900): 526,154 9) 1/96: 493,778 So from the NCDC data, 1/96 and 1/16 were the most widespread 20"+ population impacts for northeastern snowstorms. And 1/16 more than doubled 1/96's population affected by 30". Of course, the NYC area covered a lot of the population, but both 1/96 and 1/16 were 20"+ storms for the NYC area. -
I'm just curious about how you decided on these rankings, because I also am able to rank all of these storms in a western suburb of DC. Was 2/5-6/10 and 1/96 being ranked higher than 1/16 partly because of what happened after the storm's end? I've said elsewhere that I can't separate the second 2/10 storm from the first one in terms of how the experience went overall, and the same goes with the whole 1/6/96 to 1/12/96 period. So of course those would be better winter weather weeks than the week of 1/16. But if I had to pick which one was the best in isolation, every indicator for 1/16 (total snow, winds, drifts) was just a bit better than 1/96. 2/5-6/10 still had the greatest impact of any storm I've lived through because of the 30-hr power outage in addition to being stuck.
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Best Mid-Atlantic winter storm of the last 40 years
gymengineer replied to PrinceFrederickWx's topic in Mid Atlantic
Pretty darn close--- remember NCDC's NESIS maps are "stingy" for all events, so they compare ok with each other. The biggest differences are SW VA and New England. -
Best Mid-Atlantic winter storm of the last 40 years
gymengineer replied to PrinceFrederickWx's topic in Mid Atlantic
True. 2/5-6/10 and 1/96 were tied for me. I couldn't pick between the two even though 2/5-6/10 was greater in snowfall. But, then it's hard to answer a poll like this because of course it comes down to what one experienced in their own location. -
Best Mid-Atlantic winter storm of the last 40 years
gymengineer replied to PrinceFrederickWx's topic in Mid Atlantic
Gotcha-- so extending outside of the Mid-Atlantic region (the poll's wording) too. 1/96 definitely had a bigger impact further SW through all of VA. And this storm had the 30" line further east in the metro regions. For due-west of the metro regions (so Frederick County, MD, Loudoun County, VA, and Frederick County, VA/Winchester), 1/16 looks to be a bit more. We could go county-by-county and have different answers to the poll. -
Best Mid-Atlantic winter storm of the last 40 years
gymengineer replied to PrinceFrederickWx's topic in Mid Atlantic
Not for areas to your south..... see my post above. -
Best Mid-Atlantic winter storm of the last 40 years
gymengineer replied to PrinceFrederickWx's topic in Mid Atlantic
For most of the metro and west areas--- draw a line from DC to Baltimore and go directly westward (so excluding Carroll County)--- this storm actually barely beat out 1/96 in terms of total snow and winds/drifts. -
Best Mid-Atlantic winter storm of the last 40 years
gymengineer replied to PrinceFrederickWx's topic in Mid Atlantic
This was an old poll. The 1/16 option just got added but I'm guessing most people just didn't feel like re-voting. -
Best Mid-Atlantic winter storm of the last 40 years
gymengineer replied to PrinceFrederickWx's topic in Mid Atlantic
I think when your street got plowed has a lot to do with how big an impact you feel in the suburbs, and that just varies from storm to storm. It sounds like in MoCo, some people got freed sooner than in 2/5-6/10 and some later. I measured 2/10 in Potomac, not N. Bethesda, so I'm not sure how much this area got back then. Based on spotter reports, it seems likely N. Bethesda was in the 25-28" range for 2/5-6/10. I had 26.5" in 2/10 and ~28-29" for this one, but again in different locations. This storm was harder to measure for sure because of the wind, so I think that's what accounts for large differences in trained spotter/COCORAHS reports across short distances. (Like 25" vs. 34" a mile apart near Clarksburg or 22" vs. 32" less than a mile apart near Olney). -
Best Mid-Atlantic winter storm of the last 40 years
gymengineer replied to PrinceFrederickWx's topic in Mid Atlantic
Did you lose power in 2/10? The most impact I've ever endured in a snowstorm was during and after 2/5-6/10. We lost power for 30 hours with the neighborhood road completely untouched by plows. So, we were cold and stuck. At least after Isabel, I could drive out to places that had power. Specifically for Montgomery County, MD, the two storms are pretty much tied in terms of snowfall ranges. 1/16 looks like it's 20-35" range in the county (if you throw out that 'aggressive' 38.5" report from North Potomac). 2/5-6/10 was 24-32" range if you throw out the high and low outliers. -
Best Mid-Atlantic winter storm of the last 40 years
gymengineer replied to PrinceFrederickWx's topic in Mid Atlantic
I think the reason is the existence of this board, so now there's a whole community to get stressed with and the availability of all of this info we have now- radar, short-term models, etc. We were much younger in '96, so I relied more on what the TV weathermen were saying. And they weren't worried about the light mix period. It was the first mega one since '83 so the whole experience was amazing. Then in 2/03, the sleet was in the final forecasts, so I just accepted the changeover. -
Best Mid-Atlantic winter storm of the last 40 years
gymengineer replied to PrinceFrederickWx's topic in Mid Atlantic
I would guess anyone in Howard County would put 2/5-6/10 above 1/16. -
Best Mid-Atlantic winter storm of the last 40 years
gymengineer replied to PrinceFrederickWx's topic in Mid Atlantic
It's really hard for me to isolate 1/96 from that entire amazing week (2.5" from the clipper, then 6.5" from the Friday storm) and just as hard to isolate 2/5-6/10 from 2/9-10/10. A lot of my fond memories had to do with the feeling of those entire weeks. So, both of those storms get a boost from what happened afterwards. If I were to just compare the period when the snow was falling, then 1/16 wins. It's the biggest storm total in my location in my lifetime and had plenty of what I love about the best ones-- wind and drifts. And of course, thunder! -
Best Mid-Atlantic winter storm of the last 40 years
gymengineer replied to PrinceFrederickWx's topic in Mid Atlantic
You wouldn't put the second 2/10 blizzard above '00? -
I think IAD's 28" snow depth is its highest on record, beating the depth after the second February 2010 storm.
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Best Mid-Atlantic winter storm of the last 40 years
gymengineer replied to PrinceFrederickWx's topic in Mid Atlantic
Well, it *would have been* except LWX knocked a few inches off of the 12/09 total later in the season to put it down to 18". -
Best Mid-Atlantic winter storm of the last 40 years
gymengineer replied to PrinceFrederickWx's topic in Mid Atlantic
As for the surprised-sounding comments about how 2/9-10/10 wasn't amazing for people south of DC--- how is there still surprise?! Our NoVA posters have hammered home time-after-time over the years how that storm was good but not nearly historic for them. Which just goes to show that of course a poll like this will still be very IMBY even though it's supposed to be regional. I still can't pick between 1/96 and 2/5-6/10 for my location. It's a tie based on the criteria that I value: 2/5-6/10 won on storm total and tied on winds; 1/96 won on drifts and street accumulation. But, for the mid-atlantic, 1/96 is IMO the winner given how much more of VA experienced 20"+ snow totals. -
And adding in the snow from last week, the two-season average for IAD is 44.9", which is crazy good. At the very least, we're done with "feast or famine" assumption of how winters work around here, which didn't really apply to much of the region anyway during the last 10 years. DCA's 18.3" total is obviously neither a feast nor a famine.
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Best Mid-Atlantic winter storm of the last 40 years
gymengineer replied to PrinceFrederickWx's topic in Mid Atlantic
What's interesting about wind, though, is that the two storms were very comparable throughout the DC area--- 2/5/10 was actually windier at DCA during the height of the snow than 1/96.