gymengineer

And add Biloxi to the list. A Cat 1 hurricane would not likely be generating 90+ mph gusts in numerous sites 4 hours after landfall across a west to east swath of coastline. Yes, the strengthening was key.

Both Waveland and Gulfport MS gusting over 90 mph— not something many would have predicted this morning.

Orleans parish at 70% outage now. Once again (happened with Delta too), a rainless south side of a halfacane delivers on the winds.

And FOX8 just recorded 90 mph on the rainless back side.

New Iberia/Arcadiana Regional Airport has been reporting 80+ mph gusts at the top of the hour for three straight hours now, including two without any precipitation. Other locations have also reported hurricane force gusts without any precipitation. This half-a-cane has a transport mechanism for pockets of upper level winds to reach the ground even without any precip.

That poster was referring to Frances and Jeanne in 2004, and like only 2 miles apart in landfall location.

Actually Delta has laid a pretty big footprint of recorded hurricane force gusts stretching from eastern TX through central LA. KBPT (Beaumont/Port Arthur) gusted above 80 mph as did KARA (Arcadiana Regional Airport), and plenty of sites in between.

The “predict” numbers are the baseline, no water rise values that simply show the daily high tide/low tide water heights. You can see “forecast guidance” is a different category in the graph. When you click on the difference between observed and predicted, it’s showing how much higher the water is than where it “should” be. It’s not being compared to any forecast.

Observed minus predicted water levels are already more than 4’ from Sabine Pass, TX to Eugene Island, LA. Already more than 6’ at Freshwater Canal Locks in LA. https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/inundationdb/storm/Delta.html

Unless you really mean that an entire country should be blown up, why say so?

It’s not a competition, fellow school system instructional specialist But I didn’t show what’s already in the cabinet underneath in my previous post.

This one? http://climate.ncsu.edu/climate/winter/event_details?e=618 It wasn’t late in the month but it’s the first one that comes to mind. 30” at Mt. Mitchell.

We realized we could get Instacart liquor delivery from Costco two days ago. That’s a game changer for us as the liquor store was worse than anywhere else we’ve been in terms of people being able to maintain distance inside. We taste tested the two types of vodkas, the gin, and the wine. Kirkland brands will do fine for us, and now we can cross off the liquor store as the last remaining destination.

Is KGAI data not useable?

It’s terrible. We all know where the people who post incessantly in it stand. I think earlier on, it represented more of the 80/20 divide in the country. Now it’s just everything must be reacted to all the time. It’s a useless thread for communicating.

But then the total should be ultimately close to correct if it’s just about a lag. In other words, the reality reflecting a lag should have a lower peak (because deaths are going to counted later) than the original model projection. Italy’s already gone over what was the upper bound *final* total of the uncertainty range from the model’s projection a few days ago. Here’s a pretty clear twitter thread about the symmetrical “forcing” in the IHME model and how it’s not working past peak for Italy, Spain, and New York: https://mobile.twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1250304069119275009

It was showing in the 80,000’s when the 100,000-240,000 number was being thrown out by the task force. It went up to the 90,000’s, dropped down to around 60,000 and now is up to around 68,800. There were articles written about how no one could figure out where the 100,000 to 240,000 range came from. In any case, the model is not working out on the back side of the peak for Italy and Spain. The model is incapable of showing a gradual descent.

Albeit not by much, the IHME model actually went up the last two updates.

What Alexandria City P.S. is doing for grading in the 4th quarter is that it is pass/no record for secondary students (grades 6-12). So as long as a student earns a 60% or higher, 4th quarter counts as a pass at a flat 100%, with the 4 quarters being 25% each in weight (e.g. (72+68+75+100)/4)). If the student doesn't hit 60%, then 4th quarter does not exist grade-wise, which means the three previous quarters factor in 1/3 each for determining the final percent.

This twitter thread gets at what a couple of us have been saying about the IHME model’s limitations on getting the backside of the curve correct based on data from Spain, Italy, and now New York: https://mobile.twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1250369165984010241 (Click on the tweet #26 itself to see the rest of the thread)

If you started following the Italy actual numbers vs. the IHME model last week, it was clear the IHME projection did not allow for the gradual drop-off in daily deaths that started around 4/6. Today, they still saw 566 deaths and are only about 1000 more deaths or so from going past the *upper* bound (less than 22,000) of what you're calling the cone of uncertainty.

Italy today surpassed the IHME model’s total death estimate of 20,333 that was modeled to have been reached on May 12th.

Have there been widespread 50 mph+ gusts across the area from a *southerly* direction since Isabel (03)?

This article explains the almost unimaginable changes to our collective experience contained in each of the major “how to open back up” plans: https://www.vox.com/platform/amp/2020/4/10/21215494/coronavirus-plans-social-distancing-economy-recession-depression-unemployment?utm_campaign=ezraklein&utm_content=chorus&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&__twitter_impression=true

The thing about the IHME model that is striking to me is how quickly it projects the backside of the curve of daily deaths to plunge towards zero. Today was modeled to be in the 420’s for both Italy and Spain. Granted, daily death counts still are reflecting a catching-up, but Italy’s was 542 today while Spain spiked again up to 757. The model is showing both countries dropping to under 100 daily deaths in 11 to 13 days. This backside of the curve for each country/region is really going to be significant in determining the final death toll. If it’s not as sharp as in the IHME model, that model’s projection will be too low.