gymengineer
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Everything posted by gymengineer
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And add Biloxi to the list. A Cat 1 hurricane would not likely be generating 90+ mph gusts in numerous sites 4 hours after landfall across a west to east swath of coastline. Yes, the strengthening was key.
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Both Waveland and Gulfport MS gusting over 90 mph— not something many would have predicted this morning.
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Orleans parish at 70% outage now. Once again (happened with Delta too), a rainless south side of a halfacane delivers on the winds.
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And FOX8 just recorded 90 mph on the rainless back side.
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New Iberia/Arcadiana Regional Airport has been reporting 80+ mph gusts at the top of the hour for three straight hours now, including two without any precipitation. Other locations have also reported hurricane force gusts without any precipitation. This half-a-cane has a transport mechanism for pockets of upper level winds to reach the ground even without any precip.
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That poster was referring to Frances and Jeanne in 2004, and like only 2 miles apart in landfall location.
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Actually Delta has laid a pretty big footprint of recorded hurricane force gusts stretching from eastern TX through central LA. KBPT (Beaumont/Port Arthur) gusted above 80 mph as did KARA (Arcadiana Regional Airport), and plenty of sites in between.
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The “predict” numbers are the baseline, no water rise values that simply show the daily high tide/low tide water heights. You can see “forecast guidance” is a different category in the graph. When you click on the difference between observed and predicted, it’s showing how much higher the water is than where it “should” be. It’s not being compared to any forecast.
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Observed minus predicted water levels are already more than 4’ from Sabine Pass, TX to Eugene Island, LA. Already more than 6’ at Freshwater Canal Locks in LA. https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/inundationdb/storm/Delta.html
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I’m following a curated meteorologist twitter list for Dorian. I’ve never seen meteorologists rage tweeting like right now.
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Just came across this from Typhoon Jebi. The Hong Kong videos earlier this season got a lot of attention, but this stuff out of the Osaka area is pretty dramatic too. Kansai International Airport gusted to 130 mph and even the downtown business district of Osaka had a 106 mph gust.
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Southern MD / Lower Eastern Shore weather discussion
gymengineer replied to AnEndlessMaze's topic in Mid Atlantic
Great to see. I've really appreciated your posts, particularly reminding the subforum that the past two winters weren't a 'disaster' for many parts of the lower Mid-Atlantic. -
As its just south of Tokyo 24 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 34.1N 138.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 445 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 410 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 340 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 395 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
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The Seasonal Snowfall Futility Markers
gymengineer replied to North Balti Zen's topic in Mid Atlantic
IAD pulled off 0.6" today-- must be from the squalls. They are now 0.6" away from a tie. -
The Seasonal Snowfall Futility Markers
gymengineer replied to North Balti Zen's topic in Mid Atlantic
It melted on paved surfaces soon after sunrise, and by late March, the sun is up during most people's commute. So you're definitely right that it had minimal commuting impacts. I just enjoy a moderate snowstorm no matter what time of year. Seeing grass completely covered makes me happy. -
The Seasonal Snowfall Futility Markers
gymengineer replied to North Balti Zen's topic in Mid Atlantic
Wait, how did it accumulate on streets here and not where you are? See the photos from Wheaton and Savage: https://www.washingtonpost.com/amphtml/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2013/03/25/beautiful-spring-snow-blankets-washington-d-c-area/ I'm pretty sure Matt has posted pics of snow on paved surfaces in DC that early morning too. -
The Seasonal Snowfall Futility Markers
gymengineer replied to North Balti Zen's topic in Mid Atlantic
And I will still enjoy that 3" slop storm. I have very pleasant memories of 3/24-25/13. My jumping date is 4/7 in any winter-- the end date of the last ground covering snow in my lifetime. (1990- 3.8" at IAD) -
Best Mid-Atlantic winter storm of the last 50 years
gymengineer replied to AnEndlessMaze's topic in Mid Atlantic
Area is one measure. Population impacted is another. There's mixed data for the two, but again, based on what everyone is describing in this thread, it all comes down to what the storms did in each person's backyard. Here's NCDC's population data (compiled for the RSI) that I posted in another thread, normalized to the 2010 census data: For population affected by >=20": 1) 1/96: 28,928,278 2) 1/16: 21,000,936 3) 2/03: 19,242,275 4) 12/47: 13,501,073 5) 2/13: 10,662,789 For population affected by >=30": 1) 2/69 (late February New England storm): 2,009,520 2) 11/50: 1,207,570 3) 2/78: 1,169,430 4) 1/16: 1,121,182 5) 3/93: 729,753 6) late 2/10 (the NY storm): 677,436 7) 1/66 (including lake effect): 611,484 8) looks off with a huge spread in dates (2/25/1900- 3/2/1900): 526,154 9) 1/96: 493,778 So from the NCDC data, 1/96 and 1/16 were the most widespread 20"+ population impacts for northeastern snowstorms. And 1/16 more than doubled 1/96's population affected by 30". Of course, the NYC area covered a lot of the population, but both 1/96 and 1/16 were 20"+ storms for the NYC area. -
I'm just curious about how you decided on these rankings, because I also am able to rank all of these storms in a western suburb of DC. Was 2/5-6/10 and 1/96 being ranked higher than 1/16 partly because of what happened after the storm's end? I've said elsewhere that I can't separate the second 2/10 storm from the first one in terms of how the experience went overall, and the same goes with the whole 1/6/96 to 1/12/96 period. So of course those would be better winter weather weeks than the week of 1/16. But if I had to pick which one was the best in isolation, every indicator for 1/16 (total snow, winds, drifts) was just a bit better than 1/96. 2/5-6/10 still had the greatest impact of any storm I've lived through because of the 30-hr power outage in addition to being stuck.
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Best Mid-Atlantic winter storm of the last 50 years
gymengineer replied to AnEndlessMaze's topic in Mid Atlantic
Pretty darn close--- remember NCDC's NESIS maps are "stingy" for all events, so they compare ok with each other. The biggest differences are SW VA and New England. -
Best Mid-Atlantic winter storm of the last 50 years
gymengineer replied to AnEndlessMaze's topic in Mid Atlantic
True. 2/5-6/10 and 1/96 were tied for me. I couldn't pick between the two even though 2/5-6/10 was greater in snowfall. But, then it's hard to answer a poll like this because of course it comes down to what one experienced in their own location. -
Best Mid-Atlantic winter storm of the last 50 years
gymengineer replied to AnEndlessMaze's topic in Mid Atlantic
Gotcha-- so extending outside of the Mid-Atlantic region (the poll's wording) too. 1/96 definitely had a bigger impact further SW through all of VA. And this storm had the 30" line further east in the metro regions. For due-west of the metro regions (so Frederick County, MD, Loudoun County, VA, and Frederick County, VA/Winchester), 1/16 looks to be a bit more. We could go county-by-county and have different answers to the poll. -
Best Mid-Atlantic winter storm of the last 50 years
gymengineer replied to AnEndlessMaze's topic in Mid Atlantic
Not for areas to your south..... see my post above. -
Best Mid-Atlantic winter storm of the last 50 years
gymengineer replied to AnEndlessMaze's topic in Mid Atlantic
For most of the metro and west areas--- draw a line from DC to Baltimore and go directly westward (so excluding Carroll County)--- this storm actually barely beat out 1/96 in terms of total snow and winds/drifts.
