tuanis

On this past storm you were worried about a miss south until 24 hours out. The best banding ended up NORTH OF MADISON. You should like where you sit with this one. Besides, doesn't the lake help out in lakeshore counties in most mid-winter snowstorms around here?

Looks about done here. I better get outside to blow the driveway again and get a few more measurements before it gets dark.

Visibility still reduced and still accumulating, albeit much more slowly. Have about an inch and a half of fresh on the driveway since I cleared it this morning. Imagine we've seen about 7"-7.5" so far, but hard to get an accurate measurement with the blowing and drifting. Rates picking up again as I type this. It's not really a packing snow. More dense and powdery.

Dumps like a truck in this weenie band

Measuring 5.5” on the driveway that I’m about to clear.

Those lake enhanced firehose bands north of Milwaukee look sweet. They’ll pivot south with time while convergence/lake effect parameters improve. We’ll see what they look like once they make their way down here.

These lake enhanced bands are impressive. Eyeballing it, looks like about 5” or 6” out there so far, but I have yet to have my morning coffee or take a measurement. Really blowing around. If this keeps up into the afternoon we could end up near double digits.

Goodnight y’all. It took until midnight, but it’s finally doing its thing out there. Hope it keeps up while I sleep.

Of course LOT goes down. Just stepped outside. It feels like a mid-winter storm. It's gusty, the little snow that has fallen is blowing - it's not a wet snow. The flakes that are falling are aggregates, there's just not a lot of them. You'd think the gusts would tear them apart.

A total flip from what's been modeled for days and what's still in the LOT forecast graphics.

March 12-13, 2017. I recorded 14" of LES IMBY. It can happen!

This banding does give hope for the rest of the night. If one finds themselves sitting under one of these bands, the reports of solid dendrites means you can really stack. Get the lake involved an all bets are off. Let's get these ingredients to come together.

Dryairpalooza. So much for this thing starting with a bang. DSM looks good though. Weird storm, but somehow fitting for this winter.

Saturation underway. Wonder if precip breaks out ahead of schedule. LOT is saying 6 PM up here, hi-res models say 7-9 PM. Just picked up a bunch of dog turds half-buried in the glacier that's been around for more than 3 weeks before they get snowed over. Pretty stiff NE wind out there.

Per 3k NAM best fgen banding lifts well into WI on a roughly Platteville - Madison - Port Washington line with some showery garbage to the south. Wouldn't be surprised, although lake should help within 10-15 miles of the lakefront between Chicago and Milwaukee. I'm 5 miles due west of the bluff in Lake Bluff and am counting on the lake contribution

7" so far with a radar signature like that? No doubt they'll hit the higher end of the 8"-12" forecast. Omaha and Nebraska City areas look primed as well.

Sweet view Enjoy the morning flakes. I've got a bunch of friends in Northbrook, so will get you a report on how things look back home.

The disturbance passing south on Wednesday looks to add plenty of moisture to the mix, bumping up the plume and kicking it further west for a bit.

Thread has gone quiet. Maybe we're all relishing in the Packers' loss. Hate relying on lake effect/lake enhancement to make up for a less impressive synoptic system than progged. Can be so fickle.

Tough call for sure. I could see the initial burst of snow maybe getting close to 6-hour warning criteria, but rates look to drop off pretty quick. Glad I’m not making the call.

I’ll stick with my 6.5” MBY call, but I’m not feeling too confident. This morning’s turd duster was all needles and while tomorrow’s an entirely different system and moisture source, I imagine that while the initial push may impress - dry air, diminishing radar returns, and poor accumulation efficiency will plague the rest of the event, even with modest lake contribution. Due to duration and anticipated light/moderate rates I would think LOT goes with an advisory and MKE does the same for its southern tier of counties. Funny, a day or so ago people were talking blizzard conditions. At least it should end up being better than anything else we’ve seen this winter. I hope!

I feel like the big winner is often where that fgen band slows and stalls, then pivots back over with the defo. In the case of the latest 3K NAM, that looks to occur just north of the border. It moves through the metro too quickly as depicted to dump much. (Long range NAM caveat applies obv).

6z run of the 3K NAM blasts the dry slot much further north, pushing the best fgen into southern WI after the initial band and before the mediocre defo moves overhead. It’s long range for NAM, but I feel like 8 out of 10 events surprise with how far north banding ends up. Something to keep in mind as we get closer.

Ride’s not over yet

Question is how far north will the dry slot push to shut off precip/drizzle on us before the defo establishes itself and swings through. I imagine models will be narrowing in on that over the next 48 hours. Could easily push dynamics north for awhile. Perhaps even into WI.