tuanis

If this one pans out and another .75”-1” of mostly frozen falls on top of whatever we’ve already got, I pray for a slow and steady thaw at some point. The active pattern and eventual potential for a warm, heavy rainstorm spells trouble.

Goes to show we really don’t understand all of the aspects of lake enhancement. LOT emphasized repeatedly on their Q&A yesterday that since this was a “warm storm” from the Pacific they didn’t expect any enhancement from the lake. Yet yesterday’s runs of the HRRR will largely work out close to the lake. This storm was moisture-laiden, could that be playing a role in the lake enhancement? About 11” and counting here.

Seems like the snow got wetter as the storm went on. The stuff early on was decent-ratio. There’s definitely a layer of wet stuff in there. Here’s where I’m at. Definitely some serious depth. Hope we don’t get a heavy rain on top of this.

9.5” fresh on the driveway. Lake really contributing now.

What a straight up dumping. Snowblower is straining a bit. Hope I don’t bust a belt!

Finally looks like legit winter on the lakefront

Congrats!

CC shows the rain/snow line dropping south quick in Iowa. Pretty cool looking. Indy about to flip.

Concur on the consistency of what’s fallen. The fresh stuff is blowing off the roof nicely. Feels similar to what fell earlier this week. Not the kind of snow that cakes to street signs. Still borderline SN here. The sleet lasted all of 20 mins at onset.

Didn’t take long at all. Rippin.

Flakes with some sleet mixed in. Sticking on the driveway. Bring it on Ma Nature.

Wish it was mobile friendly. Missing the NWS composite radar with the white background.

Most models kicking out 0.75"-1" QPF in the Chicago metro before much lake contribution. I'll ride my 8.5". While short duration and ratios may hurt things a bit, it's clearly in reach. Also still wouldn't be surprised to see some drizzle after the main WAA dumpage moves through. Maybe even some mixing/rimed flakes at onset. Per the HRRR it doesn't look a wall of heavy snow anymore, but still ramps up nicely.

Let's get this show on the road! Can't remember the last time things felt so locked and loaded in the Chicago metro for days leading up to a winter event. Sidenote: I re-read the Iowa derecho thread last night for the first time since the event and thoroughly enjoyed it. Recommended!

^ what a dick On the hype front, I haven't been watching the local news, but Skilling has been geeking out on FB. Just kidding Ricky, you da man.

Apparently it's time to call it. 8.5". Dry air not an issue this time around, but ratios may struggle. However, they often seem to do better than expected in heavy banding, so I could be low-balling. Looks like a serious thump for several hours before it wanes. Got a hike planned into the backyard forest preserve and over to the ol' sled hill around 9 PM Saturday night. Hoping it'll be ripping hard. We'll have a more-than-solid 14" OTG if my prediction pans out. January 2019 was probably the last time we had snow that deep.

The consistency is delicious. I assume if everything holds at 00z tonight, it's all systems go from LOT. That much QPF is gonna be a big cleanup job.

Famous last words. The caveat is the thermals. How far north does mixing enter the picture? The main forcing should be snow, but I could see it getting pretty sloppy/drizzly after that passes through.

A bit off topic, but totally related to this system while watching the medium-to-long-range evolve on the models. Quite a pattern change that has taken place in our part of the world. Delayed but definitely not denied. February looks kind of sexy.

Pretty sweet consensus, no doubt. Crazy evolution. I can't really remember a storm emerging into the plains, blowing up a huge precip shield in nearly all directions, then quickly weakening/starting a transfer to the coast. It all seems to happen so quickly as modeled. Wonder if next week's system will finally break through that "block"? Kind of reminds me of watching a Florida-bound hurricane race under a stout Bermuda high. When will it turn??

Agreed. It's going to be awesome watching this thing explode on regional radar too. Too bad it'll be at night,

I’m feelin a Peoria jackpot

Reminder of what models were thinking for the last system 3-ish days out...

How can we custom order a juicy cutter that lollipops both Peoria and McHenry County? Secondary low forms and dumps on northern/central IN, bringing them all above normal for the season. Would make these storm threads easier to read. If we learned anything from the last one, nothing is set in stone. I imagine plenty of surprises to come with this one. QPF was way overdone out this way, even with an open gulf. Let's see if that plays into our next system as well.

Maybe it was the guy in Cary.