JerseyWx
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Everything posted by JerseyWx
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But for what reporting station? Again, this whole forum doesn't revolve around EWR and the park. And ultimately, the warmer minimums have been skewing the average to make it seem less impactful. It's like when we have a ratter winter with a mega 25" storm, and people look back and say, well they hit near seasonal average, it couldn't have been that bad. The other half of the picture is that daily maximums have been running cold, and people tend to notice that more. Like I said, we're not a frozen tundra, but if you spend any length of time working or being outside other than running from the car to the store, it's been cold, period.
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Yeah last week was a total blowtorch... It's one thing to say we're running near normal, but to say "nothing close to actual cold" is just gaslighting. What do you think, we live in the Yukon? Not everyone lives in the heat island bubble either.
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But I have to say, it's at least a lot colder than it's been since the 20's era began. We're not far off from 2015 either. To me, I don't agree with the if it's not snowing it may as well be warm sentiment. I can't speak for the city and surrounding areas, but we've had a lot of mornings in the teens here, and I've taken some cold hikes so far, including Sunday which was brutal with the wind. Maybe not a lot to show for it, but it feels like winter at least. Look how bad 2023 was.
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Because, from what I understand, it's called analemma. You can see that on globes sometimes. I used to wonder what that was as a kid. Basically it's because the Earth doesn't rotate around the sun in a perfect circle, and the axis is tilted. Beyond that, you'll need an astronomer lol.
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Yeah the mornings this time of year really drag on. But yes the sunset will be approaching 5pm sooner than later.
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Cold 38° rain out there. A little over a 1/4" so far.
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Oh wow, elevation ftw lol. -
This has been a pretty cold month out this way, numerous nights in the teens and low 20's. That's below normal, and it's not like our daytime highs have been scorching either. 7 inches so far, I think we're off to a fine start. Way too much talk of torching and warmth imo.
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4 inches on the dot here. Another over performing system. Only expected 2 inches at most. @rgwp96
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Woke up to 3 inches here, definitely surprised me.
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Yeah looks like a rainy few days possible, and Wednesday could be a solid soaking. I'll take it. People need to temper snow expectations until January. Honestly the way things have gone recently, I'd always wager on more snow in March than December.
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Now we're into decent snow that's actually sticking to all the colder surfaces and grass.
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I'm around 640' at the northern end of Morris county. Nothing yet, not even flakes. That said, I'm completely fine even if I don't see any snow, the most important thing being the 1.3 inches of rain that already has fallen.
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Extended summer stormlover74 future snow hole banter thread 23
JerseyWx replied to BxEngine's topic in New York City Metro
If it's not going to rain, why not sun and blue skies? Really don't see a point in clouds unless it's mid summer for some cooling. This time of year and during spring is perfect. -
Same here.
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And this week is really only 3 cooler days. Friday might hit 70. If we just had some more rain mixed in to break things up, this would be an awesome fall. Otherwise these sunny mild days and crisp mornings are outstanding.
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Yeah it's looking decent so far, I think these bright sunny days and seasonal nights have helped out. Some trees were hit too hard by the dryness though, my Dogwoods were just okay color before they're already dropping crispy leaves.
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It is what it is. Last fall it rained almost every single weekend. Businesses took a big hit. Making up for it this year, places are packed every weekend.
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Depends how much we warm up. Next week looks chilly for highs.
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To me, it just becomes a moot point to keep looking back and seeing how a single month compares to an older aggregate data set. I could understand looking at trends to see how September has changed from 1971-2000, 1981-2010, etc. But overall, the rolling 30 year normals that update every 10 years are meant to smooth the outliers and extremes to give us a more "up to date" idea of what the climate is doing. So even if say Septmeber 2012 and 2015 were extremely warm, that will still be accounted for in the 1991-2020, 2001-2030, and 2011-2040 sets, which gives us a more consistent baseline. My point is, I think we all agree that this September would have had a more positive anomaly if we were to compare it against an older set of normals. But unless we petition for the NWS to switch the way they do things, looking at the newer data we have, it was an average, if not slightly below month.
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Yeah I completely agree. Reminds me of October '21, albeit a month earlier.
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The models were downright shameful for this week. Not even worth looking at.
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It depends where you are really, south Jersey has been a little drier than up here. The grass is starting to brown a bit, but overall it's not like the resevoirs are drying up or there are water restrictions.
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Honestly I'm glad about it. This time of year it's nice to have tame weather as we wind down from summer. Look at the damage Ida caused, and over a million power outages from Isaias in NJ. Yes we could use some rain, but it's not a drought situation, more of a dry grass and leaf kind of deal.
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Yeah I think it's because of the week where Debby hit, and then the other week that was like a fall preview with cool daytime highs that were way BN.
