packfan98
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Everything posted by packfan98
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Anybody have access to the 18z Euro? @griteater???
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So many great model runs this week! Tomorrow is game time. Buckle up!
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I know it's getting out of the useful range, but the 18z GEFS really beefed up frozen precip and total qpf from 12z it appears.
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FV3. Not many more of these wonderful runs to go.
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Well, scratch my earlier freezing rain graphic with the 3k nam. It got icy over the last few panels.
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The hi-res Nam is also more West to East oriented like the Euro. More friendly to the I-40 corridor than the 12z run.
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The hi-res Nam is much less ominous with the freezing rain.
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UGH!
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Looks a little wonky, but those are some cold 850's
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No, he trimmed most back and decreased amounts on the north and east side.
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HP looks good. Maybe a touch stronger for more CAD in a few frames? We'll see...
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I was comparing the 850 temps. It was colder than the 6z up through hr 27. It went the other way after that I'm afraid.
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Small correction north on the 12z gfs compared to 6z which was the furthest south of the globals. Looks to be a pretty good consensus. Interested to see how the Hi-Res models correct over the next 2 model suites.
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Definitely colder 850's on the GFS.
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Upstate and SW NC getting NAM'ed at 42.
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The 850's are so much colder this run!
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Grit, I was wondering what the 6z euro looked like as far as the mixing line on Sunday afternoon. I know that the 0z seemed to scour out the cold temps pretty fast and even showed rain as far NW as the Triad. Did the 6z improve any? Many thanks for your analysis and contributions for this storm!
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Yeah. What usually happens in this situations is that the surface temps trend colder with the CAD but the warm nose becomes more apparent on the hi-res models. More people end up with a higher impact event due with more fzrn and sleet, but the big totals don't come to fruition in the I-85 corridor. Lots of boom or bust potential with this one. I can't believe the NWS offices are going so high with totals this early. I believe I would have went with 1-2, 2-4, and ease on up after looking at the column. They are the experts and get things right most of the time, but this one will be interesting.
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In the next 20 minutes if I remember correctly.
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What's your guess for our backyard? I'm think around 8" of snow/sleet with closer to a foot for GSO and foot plus for just NW of Winston.
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Thanks for the pbp today Burger! It's like old times. We miss you around here.
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I'm expecting something similar. I'm just to your west a couple of miles in Sophia. That was still quite a storm. Sleet has some staying power. I don't think folks are preparing well, yet.
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I hate to be a bummer, but bufkit only says that RDU gets .9" of snow from that run and no other frozen precip. http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/cobb/cobb.php?model=gfsm&site=krdu
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The bufkit warehouse text output will give you more information. It has 25.7" of snow and .13" of ice pellets.
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Seems like that transition line is almost identical in all of our storms.
