PhineasC
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Everything posted by PhineasC
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Mod now.
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The CMC and RGEM take a lot of abuse but I have noticed they sometimes do quietly lock onto the general idea and just spit out run after run in the ballpark with little deviation while everyone is focused on every little burp of the NAM/GFS/Euro. I find the ICON and UKMET to be much more schizophrenic but people still talk about them for some reason. Sometimes the Canadian models are way wrong though and they can cave instantly. -
14 with light snow.
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We are definitely still far enough out that I could see waking up to a 06z GFS run that runs right along the coast and it wouldn't be a surprise. That said, we need to see the op runs look better and move well west given we all know more rightward shifts are likely once we get within 48 hours. Seems to always happen.
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I think it's a good sign that there is still a strong storm on these runs. Weak shredded bitch low sliding due east is a bigger red flag. This is still a big low on a NE heading, just needs to adjust west.
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At some point the "it's right where we want it" line starts to ring more and more hollow as every run misses day after day. If the solution envelope really included a coastal hugger, you'd expect to see that appear in some random runs along the way. Sort of like the CMC did.
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Was really hoping the CMC would get some backup. Impossible to trust it all alone.
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Nothing but high clouds here. This one seems like a dud in NH.
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I find it very hard to care about places in NY while posting here in the New England subforum.
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18z NAM juiced up a bit for the clipper. Seems to have some enhancement in NH and ME.
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Good chance the UKMET will show this hitting London.
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Hopefully EPS moves west and shows a nice hugger cluster.
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Anything in VT yet? Looks like some precip streaming into the area.
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I only have total precip maps but I assume that must be one hell of a low slamming into New England.
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I was debating how to phrase that to see if I could avoid the easy jokes but there was just no way. LOL She was moist as hell at 12z, no sugarcoating it.
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I just looked at the JMA for the first time in forever and yeah it's really wet.
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Would be nice to see ANY support from the Euro.
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Balls cold here during the event too. Teens.
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Nice to see a good run close to the coast.
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CMC looks like the hugger run I was hoping for but the B&W maps are terrible.
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Given that things are all over the place and we are several days out, you'd expect to see a run or two of a model showing a hugger or inland runner, or for the ensembles to show some of that. I am not seeing that yet, the envelope is all east on every model. We will see where it goes from here.
