PhineasC
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Everything posted by PhineasC
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GGEM has been jumpy too, going back and forth between the GFS and Euro looks each cycle. -
It sounds like all of your mental corrections bring the best snows right over your house. Helpful, for sure. LOL
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Just as valid a solution as the NAM at 84 hours. Reminds me of the GFS look. Two camps here for sure.
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Ultimately, I think it will. Overall look for days now has been east. I don't expect some sudden shift to running over land aside from maybe a rogue NAM run. GFS will come west part of the way to the Euro and NAM will do its usual wobbling.
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The biggies always have surprises, both good and bad. Sometimes it's a boom heavy band that drops a lot of powder way west in the fringe zone, sometimes it's an unexpected change to sleet, sometimes it's a persistent dry slot that is way off of where it was modeled. Another classic is the heavy rates never materialize as modeled and you just spit for hours. Hopefully the models at least come into agreement on track today so we can start quibbling over that stuff.
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If you don't like the NAM output, just toss it. Hopefully you will soon need to toss the GFS for the same problem here shortly.
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NAM has some nerves on edge in the far eastern zones.
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Hopefully NAM has one of it's rare lock-in moments and just ups the ante from here. I would expect a random 06z/18z run where it burps and suddenly slides east or cuts precip in half. That always happens for some reason.
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Anyway, great start to 12z. And no, I don't want to hear about some obscure model with upside down maps that went east @MJO812. Let's stick to varsity and JV models at least.
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Wonder if by 00z NAM will be ramming this slightly inland.
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Hopefully GFS back it up shortly. Euro and GGEM already looked good at 00z, they don't need much correcting. GFS does.
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That's when you know desperation is setting in. Gotta dig for a model that shows the solution you want.
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I think you just might. A lot riding on 12z right now. People hanging by threads all over the place. The SE MA crew may need to split off their own thread the way NNE does it. LOL imagine the anger when one of them shows up and says they are bored by 18" of snow and wishes it was rain for the lush grass instead?
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Seems more likely at this point. Or Nova Scotia.
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That works too. I just want this baby hitting some land.
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Hopefully 12z rides the low right over BOS into the GOM.
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That cutter has been slowly flattening out on the models like they all have this season. I think it will end up under NNE at least. Not sure about SNE. Better max out this next storm before the rains come. LOL
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Definitely still a threat for this to be a fairly average scraper that only snows on far eastern areas. That idea is still very much in play. GFS has been toying with it.
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Still remains to be seen what upslope does after the storm passes. That’s always a stat-padding wildcard. PF somehow getting a foot from a storm 1,000 miles away will not be a shock to anyone. I will also not be surprised to see some of the eastern areas under the bullseye now end up getting stuck between bands whereas the usual suspects further west clean up. That seems to happen frequently even though the models can never seem to sort it out.
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No wonder the ICON talk stopped. Basically a whiff for everyone but SE Mass and even there it’s lame. Easy to toss tho.
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Euro and GGEM still look good here. GFS looks terrible still here. NAM looked headed well east to me but it’s the NAM at 84. I still like my 6-10 call but a biggie is off the table here, IMO. The trajectory of the storm is just not supportive now. More SW to ENE.
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UKMET doing typical UKMET stuff.
