PhineasC

You should look at viral and bacterial pneumonia deaths to get a better picture...

Again, these CFR numbers are totally useless and shouldn't even be posted.

All countries doing it will make it even worse. There will be no source of supply to meet the demand and nowhere to use your excess dollars to get any value before inflation wipes out your buying power. It'll suck big time. We are not there yet (timescale too short), but it will start happening eventually.

They are making decisions based on model data that has been rapidly changing. The early models that showed millions of deaths and a CFR of 10%+ turned out to be way wrong. Now they are reacting to new model data and saying the economy could start to reopen (if certain factors are met). This is like a weather forecast. If the models shift, you move your forecast or end up like Joe Bastardi.

We are still OK, but if the govt keeps printing money that will lead to inflation. The coming supply shortages will make that even worse. Devaluing your currency by handing out more of it and then tightening supply is how you get runaway inflation.

No, man. It's not a good metric unless you want to be really paranoid and miss the big picture. That's why we don't look at flu deaths per day or viral pneumonia deaths per day or sepsis deaths per day or aneurysm deaths per day. If you looked at that stuff you'd never leave the house.

The legal challenges from the states and locals would be hard to overcome in a short period unless Trump went more authoritarian and top-down, which we all know won't be received well at all... He already tried that with opening the economy and was shot down. States will open piecemeal.

If this virus is very contagious and has already infected millions of people, that means herd immunity will hit faster than is usual with respiratory illnesses. There is a belief that this disease spreads much faster than the flu and therefore could burn itself out faster than the flu. Instead of 60-80k deaths over six months, we get them all in 2 months. Hence the "flatten the curve" push to ensure we have adequate hospital resources to ride it out. Looking at raw death numbers is not going to give you a good picture of reality.

That's right and it's how we are here. That's why we can't test like South Korea or Germany overnight. Our system is not set up for that. Each state will do whatever they want.

No, we should try but it will take another 6 months which some of us think will end up being way worse than the virus.

Most of these deaths are from infections that surely predated the lockdown. I am not sure why you are conflating the two. There is not necessarily a causation link there. Death is a lagging indicator.

I wouldn't b so quick to blame our health system. Lombardy has socialized medicine and we saw what happened there.

It's probably not even legal to mandate virus testing before people can go to work or leave home. It'll be challenged in court, no matter what. The South Korean population is heavily concentrated in urban corridors that can be closed off far more easily than our dispersed population. There is also a far greater sense of collectivism in that country. Culturally, they have been practicing social distancing and mask wearing for decades already. They didn't need to learn this like we did. They remember SARS very well. We are much more like Italy than South Korea, but that's also not a great comparison.

It seems clear to me you are spending too much time deep into out-of-context stats and letting them eat away at you. You should read some flu stats for the past 50 years...

That could be 18-24 months away. There is zero chance of that, and you shouldn't hope for it. I haven't heard experts like Fauci calling for that either. You'll much prefer the coronavirus deaths if we run out of food and there are widespread riots with 30%+ unemployment...

I am very confident you are going to see public opinion on this swing wildly towards opening in the next two weeks as layoffs accelerate and savings run dry...

If the IFR ends up around 0.2%, it is in terms of deadliness.

It has to work. We can't stay locked down until we get a vaccine and/or testing like South Korea (which will never work here). At some point we will need to start to reopen and accept some deaths and hope the IFR is more like 0.2%. Otherwise many, many more will die from the economic and social impacts of the lockdown. All we are ding is punting the football while our hose burns down.

These lockdowns are completely unprecedented in world history. It's amazing they have worked as much as they have. Just because you are scared and want to stay home for a few years doesn't mean most people want that or it should be mandated by law.

This is not a good argument for shutting down the entire planet. The common cold frequently kills this population. The flu ravages them every single year. Thousands upon thousands of deaths. I suspect most 80 year olds don't want the earth shut down and people's lives ruined to ensure they get a few more months of life locked in their houses...

So why can't you simply quarantine yourself until a vaccine is available and the rest of us go back to work?

Many of those dying are elderly with major underlying complications. Look at the Italy data. The vast majority of those who died were very old and had 2+ major comorbidities. This disease is not any more dangerous for healthy people under 40 than something like swine flu.

I can see the trends in the data in the papers coming out now. There have been solid studies from Germany, Iceland, and China on this topic. Even your vaunted CDC CFR numbers have been steadily moving downwards. The next update will definitely be even lower. But CFR is totally useless right now.

But even in hard-hit NYC they are nowhere near regional capacity. Meanwhile, many people with cancer, kidney disease, and other very serious illnesses can't get treatment and/r have been laid off and lost their coverage. And I have zero faith the political leaders have the best info or have processed it all yet when making decisions. This entire pandemic has become totally politicized now, which is a shame but to be expected.

The infected fatality ratio (IFR) for those under 65 with no major complications has been steadily dropping and is approaching regular flu territory (0.2%).