PhineasC
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Everything posted by PhineasC
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Globally, no. About 285,000 deaths from swine flu, and we have herd immunity to flu....
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OK, but if they are dying in their homes they are very old, very ill, and infirm. Basically a nursing home patient. That is a totally different beast than a 30 year old dying at home. And yes, it sucks that grandma is dying...
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And what about the temp hospital they set up? The temp hospital in Seattle closed before they saw a single patient.
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Socialized medicine paradises around the world have been hammered by this disease. This argument seems empty.
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OK, so everyone else in NYC is healthy all the time now? If the hospitals are supposedly stuffed to the gills with COVID patients where are all the people with heart attacks, aneurysms, and trauma?
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Excuses. Red tape has been cut. They are not being used, just like nearly every hospital out there outside the hot zones.
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That doctor needs to take a stats class. He is comparing global IFR to a single city. There will be broad swaths of territory that have few cases that being down the death rate.
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There is zero herd immunity to COVID. We may be compressing a really bad flu season into 2-3 months. That's my argument. I am not saying this is the flu. It can't be because we have herd immunity to the flu and vaccines.
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So you believe the denominator is far higher but still here busting my ass about NYC... OK.
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You are still using bad math. Like any disease, swine flu had hotspots. You are taking national IFR numbers and then applying them to a single city.
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Let's check the math in 12 months. If COVID is taking a flu season and compressing it into 2-3 months this will end up looking way different in a year.
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The hospital ship is mostly empty. How about the temp hospital they set up?
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NYC is fine. They can get medical care if needed. Please stop falling for the stuffed hospitals fear hype. It isn’t real. Hospitals outside NYC are laying off staff.
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OK, feel free to buck American history and public perception to wish for the utopia solution. That's fine. I will stay here in reality land that every governor has a plan to reopen now without large scale serological testing in place...
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Public health officials need to think about large communities or entire nations. Not your backyard. It seems like you are taking a view from your personal basement, which is fine, but that has zero bearing on national decision making. How can you not get this?
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You sound like someone who is just sad over the deaths and wants to get that number to zero. I understand the sentiment, but it's impossible. People will be dying from COVID-19 for years to come. People still die from every single epidemic of human history. People still die from the bubonic plague every year.
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It sucks that people are dying, but statistically COVID-19 is a drop in the global bucket. Public health officials need to look at the big picture. The global picture. Knowing that a bunch of people in NYC died tells you zip about how to handle reopening in Omaha and Bahrain.
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If you are mathematically inclined, you need to be looking at the area under the curve. Study the rate of change of the rate of change in deaths (AKA the second derivative). That's what Cuomo highlights in his briefings.
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Read the studies coming out looking at estimated IFR and total infected. I have posted some here. Daily snapshots of deaths and "new cases" are not helpful and lead to bad analyses.
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Yes, but if you tested everyone you'd find probably millions of cases which would drop the death rate into swine flu territory. That would be good news.
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it's probably impossible here. Americans will tolerate mass death before they give up freedom and autonomy. Look at how we treat mass shootings. We buy more guns!
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Could be weeks ago they caught it or the day before. Impossible to know. It's almost entirely a function of testing volume.
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Hey, if you want to be an emotional wreck over this and hope that Dr. Fauci bases his recommendations on daily death counts alone, that's your prerogative. I am choosing to be 100% rational and detached from this. Helps keep clarity. Looking at daily death numbers each night is completely unhelpful, academically and psychologically.
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Guys... you cannot be looking at daily test data and thinking "that many people caught the virus today." That's not at all what that means. There is no way for us to control that variable right now. Way too dependent on testing rates.
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Again, that's more testing. If they tested all Americans overnight they'd add like 5-10 million cases nationally and you guys would flip out.
