PhineasC

The death stats from the states are becoming even more worthless as they go back and do forensics in places like nursing homes. They are finding deaths from weeks ago, saying they are "probable COVID" without a test, and then adding them to the total from today. That completely muddles any attempt to watch trends in death stats. So, if you are still doing that, you should stop if you want to have any view of reality.

There are countries out there with no national lockdowns in place. Social distancing guidelines are very different from a government mandated lockdown where you can be arrested for partaking in certain activities. This question may never be adequately answered, but I think the models showing hospitals being overwhelmed made the following mistakes: 1) Took the outlier Italy CFR numbers too literally. 2) failed to factor in the huge drop in people going to the hospital and doctors for other reasons 3) greatly overestimated ventilator need 4) didn’t properly account for self-selection bias and massive undercounting of total infected when looking at daily hospitalization rates I feel like the hospital narrative has been quietly going away as we have learned more about these four things.

LOL the guy who has meltdowns every winter over being "fringed" is not in a position of any sort to lecture on cool and dispassionate scientific debate.

Has nothing to do with second wave in November. I also really don't buy the overwhelmed hospitals narrative anymore. Is any country on earth seeing widely overwhelmed hospitals with people dying in hallways or in triage tents outside? More and more, the medical community is saying NOT to intubate when the patient is very old and sick because it lowers their chances of survival to near zero.

I don't see how another 30 days of lockdowns now prevents or weakens a second wave in November. The only things that can mitigate that are: 1) Vaccine (not happening by then) 2) Very robust test and trace infrastructure (maybe) 3) Continued lockdowns until then (no way)

This is already an unprecedented national tragedy in terms of the lockdown (not even close in terms of deaths from the virus).

Protests are always the minority, but then there is sometimes a majority quietly agreeing from home. Always been that way.

I'm not so sure, but I hope you are right. There will be years of finger-pointing and second-guessing from all directions after this.

If I "win" this argument, it means a lot of people didn't die and we got back to normal much earlier. I'm OK with that.

What if they open and everything is fine? What will the new pivot be in your narrative on deadliness? They are fudging the numbers?

But it's happening in this thread every day.

Soberng review of all of the other ill people suffering more because of the lockdowns and bans on "elective surgery." https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMms2009984 I sure hope we all made the right call on this virus and accurately weighed the costs versus benefits. It's sort of like squeezing a balloon. You might lower the death rate on one side, but you raise it on the other.

If a bunch of people you know died from the virus, but it turns out they were simply unlucky and the virus was not the global death-machine they thought it was, I can see how you'd get angry, as irrational as that may be. It's a human response. It helps when we feel like everyone is in the shitshow with us together. It would be even worse if people started pointing out that the secondary toll from the lockdowns (job losses, starvation, suicides, etc.) might end up worse than the impact from the virus itself. It's going to take time for people who weren't even infected to heal from this.

I actually think they were justified in a general sense, but I think they came too late in some places and haven't had the desired effect (essentially we get all the bad and few of the good effects). I am also a little suspicious of the shifting rationale to justify them. Not all that long ago (a couple of weeks) we were told these lockdowns were needed to prevent millions of deaths and overwhelmed hospitals everywhere. NYC alone needed 40k ventilators. Not hearing that now. Talk seems to be about buying time for wave 2, more and more. That may be a real thing, but it's seems disingenuous to switch narratives mid-stream like that.

We won’t have much better testing or a vaccine by then. The talk of contact tracing and widespread same day testing is bread and circuses from the governors who need to reopen ASAP before they have to gut social services and employment rolls. At the end of the day, the financial picture will be taking the lead here, IMO. If Fauci was in a vacuum he’d say stay closed until December.

It’s important to give 80 year obese people with heart and kidney failure in nursing homes a chance at 3 more months of terrible life in exchange for 40% unemployment for 20-30 year olds and widespread hunger. Plus, the second wave! Don’t forget that new MacGuffin.

The exit scenarios I see you putting on the lockdowns are months away, at best.

If you were someone who fully bought in to the lockdowns, followed all the rules, and think it should continue as long as needed at the cost of your job, relationships, savings account, retirement account, business etc... I could see reasons for you to be very defensive and angry seeing people not following your lead but not dying from this, either. I can also see why stories of hospitals being under capacity would cause rage. It’s basically a betrayal of the main reason you destroyed your own life to fight this virus. Must be a shitty feeling.

That person doesn’t know the definition of pandemic.

You will literally not be able to remove that risk to grandma until there is a good vaccine. 18 months away, most likely. I think this reality is becoming apparent for people hence the current reaction to just say “screw it I’m going out.”

Frankly, that other person who gets sick and can’t recover took their own chances by going out without a mask or other precautions. This virus floats on the breeze. You cannot hold yourself responsible. There is also a chance you already had it and infected people... wait for serum tests.

Protests in SoCal now of all places. Patience with lockdowns falling apart across the land. Only a matter of time now. If you are still super scared of this virus (several here come to mind), you need to prep to lock yourself down indefinitely while everyone else goes back out.

People are growing super tired of the “enforcement” of government-mandated quarantines that seem to be a moving target. It’s not something that can last much longer before people simply stop listening. And when those who disobey don’t drop dead because they had a BBQ, others will follow.

Some of those deaths were COVID-19, and some were people too scared to go to the ER for their other medical issues, I think.

One such source was right in the prior link: