PhineasC

Definitely seems like the kind of situation where a state needs to implement their "Riot Control Act" to control the mass death:

I'm sure the Founders intended for states to use a "Riot Control Act" to completely shut off a city with some positive COVID-19 cases. A city with a major interstate highway passing through it. Sounds good.

Your argument is stupid. It's essentially that the lockdown orders are fine because you can just ignore them and nothing will happen. But when protestors ignore them, you flip out about it. Pretty interesting.

It's already happened. The measures they have instituted in this country are completely unprecedented. It wasn't even like this during the Civil War. Forcibly closing schools, churches, businesses, restricting travel, grounding flights... never happened here before on anything approaching this scale. So yeah, the authoritarian bent is definitely coming out.

Glad we are keeping that utterly unconstitutional spirit alive, then!

The MD order says I cannot leave the state unless it is for an emergency or other "essential" activity. Upon my return, I need to be in isolation for two weeks. Have you even read the orders? Just because you are ignoring them doesn't mean they don't exist, and neighbors have been tattling on each other all over the place.

Here is where the truly committed lockdown governors go next: totally shutting off certain cities, regions, or possibly even counties. https://www.governor.state.nm.us/2020/05/01/gov-authorizes-gallup-lockdown/ Let's stop pretending it can't happen here. Next stop after this is taking people from home and forcibly sending them to a field hospital "for their own safety and the safety of the community." Let's hope common sense kicks in long before we get there.

You said yesterday I could leave the state any time I want to get a haircut, and you thought that was a compelling argument for why lockdowns are fine, dude. LOL

So I guess if LockdownLarry gets even a one-day spike he restarts the clock?

Vaccine timeline. The rationale used to justify closing schools now will be exactly the same at the end of August. If schools open in August, it's only because over the summer we all decided COVID-19 wasn't worth all of the disruptions (which I think is possible), not because of some magic cure or testing regime.

Social distancing is fine. That's different than a lockdown. Sweden is social distancing. Americans are doing it too. That's not the same thing as saying you will arrest some kids playing at the park, harass people in their homes, force every kid into homeschooling for 2 years, force mandatory quarantines for crossing state lines, and do silly things like fill skateboard parks with sand and remove benches from the boardwalk.

Hospitalization numbers are declining all over the country. The CDC even said so. I posted it here last night. We have been told since early March that doom for us was "2 weeks away." Hospitals being overrun? 2 weeks away! Bodies being dumped in the street? 2 weeks away! Hundreds of thousands of deaths? 2 weeks away! Florida beachgoers dropping like flies? 2 weeks away! Georgia surge in deaths? 2 weeks away! It's clear now we are over the hump everywhere in this country, but diehard doom porn fans and those with reputations to protect will try to walk out of their entrenched positions slowly enough that we don't notice.

LOL There are more people at your local grocery store today than were at that protest. Some crowds are still an accepted "norm" during this lockdown, it's just that this particular crowd at the state house has you super triggered because they we're gun-toting conservatives. Be real.

If everyone around them is wearing masks and people avoid them, there is really no extra (statistically meaningful) risk. I don't see you nervously wringing your hands over trips to the liquor store or Walmart. This is all political and nothing more.

Herd immunity doesn't require 100% of people to get infected. The infection rate will slow before we get to 70% infected and the death rate will plummet once the "easy victims" are out of the system/isolated. The other alternative is to sit at home for 2 years and pray the vaccine works (no guarantee). It's going to be your personal call because there is no way we are getting a test and trace system like South Korea. It really is that simple, folks.

Yeah, nothing political about that guy. I guess he wants hard lockdowns for 2 years praying for a vaccine? OK

There is also ample data that it spreads much more rapidly indoors in enclosed spaces with shared ventilation. Part of the Chinese standard treatment involves opening the windows and doors and moving patients outside if possible. https://urbanland.uli.org/economy-markets-trends/confronting-covid-19-social-distancing-buildings-and-lessons-from-asia/ The stuff about the protestors really increasing the danger to anyone is political BS and nothing more. Crowds also gather at the local Whole Foods and Home Depot and none of you say a word about that.

That's not how this works and you know that. I don't need to prove the negative.

Moderating the off-topic threads on an off-season weather subforum doesn’t seem like an important duty.

I don’t address anecdotes. My posts refer to state and national level data. Sorry for those deaths.

Your state will be fine. The hype over this virus is really overblown. Your local news will replace "cat stuck in tree" stories with "20 year old football star deathly ill from COVID" stories but you need to power past the media fear narrative. The stats will barely bump when you reopen.

About $5M in the US, give or take.

Your calculation of CFR is completely pointless. Serological studies point to 20M+ Americans having this disease and not even knowing it. There could be 50M Americans with the disease. We just don't know yet. That drops the IFR (Infected Fatality Rate) to something like 0.1% to 0.5% or thereabouts (there is tons of debate on this). The 5.8% number you generated is total horse shit. No other way to say it, sorry.

Statisticians and researchers can use techniques to determine if the rise in suicides is simply background noise, part of a general trend, or caused by spikes in unemployment. I don't have the desire to explain this to you, but I can safely say your argument doesn't refute the studies showing a clear link. I hope you realize this isn't my idea, BTW.

Larry Hogan right now is suffering from anchoring bias. His early decisions (earlier than much of the rest of the nation) were based on CFR data from Italy that said 10% or more of COVID patients died. That early data has since been proven inaccurate, especially below 80 years of age. In Larry's case, the "anchor" is the idea that this virus is a mass killer of every age group that can overwhelm hospitals seemingly overnight (supposedly like Lombardy -- we now know they get "overwhelmed" every flu season). With that idea locked into his mind, he is only going to very slowly pull out of the nosedive and change his strategy as the data all strongly points in the other direction. Cuomo has this issue too, but he seems closer to shedding it than Hogan. Cuomo's issue is he yapped for weeks about ventilators and field hospitals, spent hundreds of millions of dollars on them, and then they went unused. He needs to find a way to spin that into the voter memory hole.