PhineasC

Flakes taking over. Super nasty out there. Temp dropped fast to 35. Changeover proceeding.

38 degrees with some drizzle/mist. Nasty out there.

I guess. They are not really getting better each week and this was after a bye. I'm sure they can make the playoffs in the weak AFC but they show no signs of getting to the point where they could beat KC or even TN. They are basically the top of the middle-of-the-road group right now. I am pretty pessimistic on Lamar right now, but that's just me, I suppose.

I thought I saw you up there when I was on my deck. LOL

39 with light rain. Feels cold out there.

Lamar looked horrible today. He has been declining week over week it seems. Steelers have quietly become the team to beat in the AFC North.

3-6 in the point forecasts in Coos Monday and Tuesday. Fingers crossed.

I have skimmed that paper. One thing that I think stands out in it is the lack of good data (not NWS' fault). You can see it in the maps. Gorham is not getting more snow than York Pond in the average event, IMO. Gorham is routinely dried out in events around here when the elevated areas are getting pounded. That's something I have noticed a lot already. I doubt Jefferson is beating York Pond either. It looks like NWS had decent data for these two areas and so that's why they stick out as local maxes. The time period is also 2001-2007, prior to the current Randolph observer. It will be interesting to see, but I really doubt Gorham is going to beat me in any category this winter.

2-3" is what I am hoping to see. As always, my bar is flakes in the air.

Ugh, glad I will likely be done with warm Thanksgiving and Christmas. Hate that.

Really excited about my first upslope event. Models are all painting a local bullseye on the northern Presidentials which touches my house, so I am taking that as a good signal. Looking forward to comparing notes with the upslope crew after this first event.

Our schedule this winter will be 3 weeks in NH, 9 days in MD. Rinse and repeat until May. We plan to switch primary residency to NH in the summer. Tough to do in the middle of the school year, even with homeschooling (which is still tied to state programs).

I’m trying. LOL where I come from it doesn’t just snow by default because of terrain, altitude or latitude. Every single flake is an anomaly.

Wife's a flight attendant. Planes are the cleanest they've ever been. Study compared risk of covid between planes, subway, being in a car and others. Planes had the least risk and was extremely low. I am not really worried about getting the Vid per se. Just all the worry and hassle over distancing and precautions. I dislike flying in any case.

You are lucky with your NWS office. They went into a lot of detail on this upslope event and pinpointed exact areas. The Gray, ME discussion was far less exciting, to put it mildly. Basically just said “there could be accumulating snow in the mountains.” Okie dokie lol

The 3k NAM really looks good for Northern NH with the coastal. Solid wrap-around depiction.

Sounds good! I think we will need to see what the coastal does. Looks like you are primed for good upslope either way, the better runs for me get the low off Maine more involved with some direct synoptic stuff. NAM hasn’t been as excited about that the last few runs but globals and RGEM still seem to like it. Either way seems like a great setup for a few inches across the northern tier. All models agree on that now.

LOL puppers is finally recovering from the boiling summer heat.

Weenie question, what does the 12z Euro show for Monday/Tuesday up north?

I was envisioning trying to get through security with social distancing and having to touch the totes and all that, but I could see how parts of the process would be easier. If it was just me and my wife, we would be more open to it, but with kids it is harder since they touch everything and their faces all the time and also are not the best with mask protocol. Easier to just get in the car.

Flying was already a huge hassle before. I can only imagine how terrible it is right now. I'd need to have a really good reason to get on an airplane these days.

Taiwan is a very small island with a single port of entry that can be locked-down by a couple of guys with submachine guns. They also have a culture of wearing masks all the time due to pollution and dust from the Chinese mainland. They already have dealt with an even deadlier coronavirus, SARS, so they were certainly better prepared. Germany is certainly more like the US in terms of demographics, economics, and access, but it is one country in the EU. There are regions of the US that have handled the virus reasonably well like Germany, such as New England. You can certainly compare Germany to New England, but if you want to compare Germany to the overall US, you need to include Spain, Italy, and France in the equation just like you'd include Florida, Texas, NY, and California on the US side.

Speaking as someone from a place where a single storm is often it in a winter, I'm sure many folks in SNE will read your post and see it as an ominous thing. I would be paranoid about this being the peak of the season if this happened in MD.

Italy locked down far more than the US did, for example. In parts of Italy, it was illegal to leave your house unless you were going to the grocery store at pre-designated times. More effective at controlling the spread, perhaps, but the social and economic toll is enormous. For a virus with a 99.5% survival rate, it is harder to justify the millions who will fall into poverty and hunger due to hard lockdowns. The WHO appears to be taking this stance now too. I am glad most have stopped bringing up Australia and New Zealand at least. Isolated islands with a handful of ports of entry are not comparable to the US/EU.

It seems lockdowns don't really work if they are half-assed and start/stop based on surges. If you do lockdowns "the right way," the enormous social and economic impact just isn't justifiable, especially for a virus with a 99.5% survival rate. So we have no choice but to take this middle ground and hope herd immunity/vaccine/better treatment pulls us out of it. I am kind of tired of people asserting that Americans aren't wearing their masks or social distancing enough or that politics has caused the pandemic to be worse here. That's pretty clearly BS if you look at Europe and compare. There are no Trump supporters in Spain, France, and Italy. They surely "mask up" there and socially distance. They also have socialized healthcare. Yet cases have been surging all the same. I'm not seeing what a new US president would suddenly do differently than what is already being done in Europe.