PhineasC

Do they still cover all bases with boom/bust percentages?

If somehow I get 15"+ from this, of course I will mix. There will be a phase at the peak of the storm when some sleet appears. Usually I am having too much fun to even notice. Snow-sleet-snow is pretty classic in these things for my area.

I am not really clear on your climo. Do you need a storm more like a southern slider or something that hits the beaches? Do the traditional I-95 and NW MECS not work that well for your spot? Because for MBY this thing looks classic. But that might be a screw job for you.

12z clown map is 17" here. Even cut in half would be the biggest storm in years here.

Same thoughts here.

You think a snow storm "locks in" 4+ days out. LOL

Usually a good call. 8-10 would be the best storm in a long time for my part of MD so fine by me. I was expecting 0.0" this winter so it's all a bonus.

Biggies always mix around these parts. I will take a couple hours of sleety snow here if it means I get 15-20" overall. That's the tradeoff that has to occur. No big deal.

You new here?

12z CMC would easily be one of the all-time December greats if it verified. Maybe even number 1.

Yeah, big rates being shown on the GFS for this. The person who gets under the heaviest stuff will flip to pounding wet snow and pick up 5-8" quickly before it shuts off.

I am happy to be back for this storm. There is nothing on the horizon for Randolph from these next two. Maybe some upslope after each passes. A true fringe up there.

Great news for us.

That's a more classic northern tier look right there.

My plan is to swing the car around, drop off the kids and wife up front, and then do the trudge up from the car alone. They will all be wearing their boots from the house, I will drive with the windows cracked. This all sounds good in my head at least.

We all know deep down we will be worried until the snow starts no matter what the models say, and then we will be worried about the radar from then on. LOL

Gotta have huge rates with something like this to get snow. Good to see the models juicing up.

You must have a busy schedule trying to help build hype and maintain the good vibes in two separate subforums.

ICON thermals are pretty useless. It had a lot of rain for that last coastal even way up in Northern NH.

Yep, there is some cold to tap which is why I think those who get into super-heavy rates as the storm wraps up will be fine for a paste-job at least, even if temps look marginal. Anyone sitting under marginal rates will have crappy accumulation even if they have better temps. Which is why no one should be spiking any footballs yet. I am serious when I say there are still some SE and OTS-looking runs coming, probably Monday. It always happens before they correct back to a final position.

Because there are like 100 times more posts than here, where it is frequently dead all day.

They also take themselves less seriously, or at least the moderators do. It's just snow.

Seems like the vast majority of the time, rates are the real make-or-break thing around here in marginal events. Temps fall in line when you have rates. Even the mighty I-81 corridor could fall prey to crappy rates that don't accumulate well while some place much further SE gets into intense banding and gets a paste job at 33-34 degrees. I wouldn't be paying much attention to snow maps or small temp variations, just where the heaviest precip sets up. It feels like a lot of these supposedly heavy precip events end up spitting for long periods of time which really messes up snow totals.

Having posted a lot in both forums, the New England subforum is much more fun and less on-edge than this one. It’s a noticeable difference.

You’ll also get upslope after the storm departs and orographic enhancement during. The globals are not good at detecting that at this range.