PhineasC
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Everything posted by PhineasC
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It's a cliche, but this Euro run is actually really important. It needs to keep trending better and look more like the GFS. Otherwise, this thing might be starting to slip away from us.
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It's super easy to be a negative troll in this region. You are usually right, and, when you are wrong, no one comes back to you about it because they are busy enjoying the snow.
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Euro will join them shortly. We've seen this act many times.
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Cutoff zone. The UKMET is really not good if you want big totals, it appears it hits the northern tier with some CCB snows as the low departs. I have learned not to rely on that because it rarely happens.
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I'm touched, thanks man. I will post pics.
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If you are in Baltimore or Harford Counties, look at the UKMET.
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When troll weenies collide.
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The NAM might start being useful for this event by the 00z runs Tuesday evening.
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It’s a competition between you and MN Transplant for who has the saddest obs during these events. I could easily see this thing being wire-to-wire rain for you if we miss the CCB snows.
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Getting near the time where we drop the charade and have to acknowledge the hard reality that this will not be a region-wide crowd pleaser and there will be a screwzone. Snow is a brutal sport. If you live on a barge in the Potomac in SE DC, you are getting a lot of rain.
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You usually have the saddest obs during these events. I expect lots of 33 degree rain reports.
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We all know no one would be shocked to wake up tomorrow to a 06z GFS run that has the southern MD crew buzzing and psuhoffman writing up a 1,000 word explanation of what happened.
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It's about that time when we get some OTS burp runs to get the NW crew panicking about being fringed.
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Canadian is pretty cold in the areas getting heavy snow. This storm will have some brutal cutoffs as depicted. It'll be a forum divider along some line, TBD.
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Feels like 2009 in here.
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Yep, 18z was just a burp. 00z nicely in line with 12z. Train is still rolling.
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Much better run than 18z here, but the cities are right on the line, especially DC.
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18z GFS was a burp.
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LOL back to NH I go.
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This is like the 30th time he has stormed off the boards. Can't worry about it.
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Maybe just a New England thing, but the para-GFS is always warm, just like the ICON. It frequently shows my place in Northern NH mixing with rain. Something is wrong with the thermals on both of those models. I wouldn't get hung up on them.
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I picked the best time to head south for 10 days. I look set up to get a foot or so down here in MD and then head back up to NNE just in time for things to get active again probably.
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Rain/snow line. I would assume LWX is predicting a sharp cutoff between good snows and mostly rain, and the models do basically show that.
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FWIW, the CMC was the best model on the last coastal in terms of track. It didn't waver for days while the Euro and GFS waffled around, the former too far NW and the latter too far SE.
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Euro was persistently too far NW on the last coastal. It corrected a couple days out and then ended up pretty far to the east.
