PhineasC
-
Posts
34,634 -
Joined
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by PhineasC
-
People say that all the time. LOL
-
Or the gfs is all by itself The Euro looks much more like the GFS than the NAM.
-
NAM is all by itself.
-
The NAM will be stupid for a while and then magically on some upcoming off-hour run it will suddenly jump to look like the globals. Usually happens overnight during the 06z run. You go to bed with a run like this and wake up to something totally different.
-
I feel like there is still a wet bias with these models usually. So in order to get 20" across the area, I would expect to see 2.5" liquid being painted across the area widely. I am seeing a much narrower stripe and lower totals this time. That's all I'm saying. It isn't the firehose that 2009 was. Someone could do OK with banding and the like, but the 2009 and 2010 events just brute-forced their way to big totals across a very large area.
-
I wouldn't expect a HECS from this. The 2009-2010 storms all had massive moisture feeds. The models were printing out 2-2.5"+ as snow across a large area at this range. Not seeing that here. Snow maps aside, the raw liquid totals just aren't there for the widespread 20"+ totals.
-
That pivot is a thing of beauty.
-
By "a while" you mean three days...? LOL
-
Kinda early.
-
Euro has had me around 15" or so for a few runs now. That's good to see.
-
This thread sure died. Not even a little bread and butter to talk about. Hope it picks back up soon.
-
The majority of this forum lives on or near that line. Hence the drama every single event.
-
Active mid December with multiple event potential
PhineasC replied to Typhoon Tip's topic in New England
I have been watching them on my cams. Milling around the place but no burning or looting yet. -
That may be true, but unless you are measuring every six hours and melting the snow to get liquid equivalent, you have no idea what ratios you usually get. That said, if you are that informed about local climo, then you don't even need a snow map. I don't look at snow maps for my place at 1600' in Northern NH.
-
Active mid December with multiple event potential
PhineasC replied to Typhoon Tip's topic in New England
I went back to MD for the best possible 10 days, it looks like. Latest GFS is about 20" here. Nothing going on in NNE right now. -
Rates are never that good in this region. Usually 10:1 at best.
-
The easy rule is: purple is good, whitish green is really good, and deep bluish is incredible.
-
Welcome to the area.
-
Nice RGEM run. It tends to be warm, so take that into account.
-
LOL
-
Yes, already way too much NAM talk here.
-
Two different runs. The 18z is further east than the 12z. One more shift like that we are in business.
-
NAM will keep drifting eastward over the next several runs. It might have things figured out 24 hours out.
-
Definitely more of the kind of move we needed. That's about all you can say at this time. On to 18z.
-
Don't buy into the snow map hype of 15-20 inches. This thing still has a great shot to be a rain to 4-6" of snow kind of deal. A pretty classic event in this region, to be honest.
