PhineasC

Comically huge snow blobs here now.

Some models had it, yes.

17” was clearly not realistic. 9” may be a little high too.

Light snow, 30 degrees. Some surfaces covered.

The true source of the famous Alex upslope. LOL

We should charge for this!

That low track on the RGEM is so damn goofy that I could see it busting a little on that.

CAD is king.

The HRRR shows a best-case scenario for most of us. Front thump, to drizzle/sleet, back to snow for a short while.

Referring only to my area. I always have virga for a long while around here for whatever reason. LOL the western crew sure has been sensitive on this event. I’m sure your NAM HECS is still inbound.

I was told that these things always come in hot and heavy. That ALWAYS works out around here!

Don’t worry, it’s supposed to boomerang back over the area to screw us and then immediately move back offshore to dump PHL to BOS.

Got down to -2.2 last night.

Won't debate that. Just saying there is more wrong with this storm now than the airmass. There is cold air around to tap. It isn't like it's 32 degrees in New England and Upstate NY right now. The track is just putrid for the I-95 corridor.

A track as shown on the models now really wouldn't be great in January in Baltimore either.

Yep, been watching it "tic north." Can we start calling that the Phin shuffle?

Enjoy this one folks! I am in MD prepping for a sleet bomb. Our HECS evaporated.

A very serious burn.

The ARW stands for Always Really Wet.

28/21

The low track being depicted now is one of the biggest middle fingers I can imagine for the I-95 corridor. The low curls inland just enough to screw the cities and then promptly hops back east to dump snow from PHL to BOS. I swear it feels like there is a higher power at work here. LOL

I'm cool with an extended sleet bomb here. Been years since we have had a good one. Let's go for it, better than rain. I think if this thing is going to over-perform near the cities, it will take that form. More sleet, less rain.

Not sure you can nowcast your way into an 8 degree temp drop, however.

I think warning-level snow is still in the cards for you. But there will be a period of mixed crap in the middle. It will just last for a shorter period of time in your backyard than near DC, where it will be the majority of the storm. But the evolution of the day will be the same for everyone. Snow, to mix, then back to snow. Just adjust the length of the intervals, factor in a potential dry slot, and take terrain into account. And I can assure you I am not jealous of your snowstorm. My new house averages 185" a year and is sitting at 2 degrees with 10 inches OTG right now. LOL

I think that's a good forecast for your area.