PhineasC

You would know better than me. Best of luck.

RGEM looks too cold to me given the track (at 850 -- surface is torching). Definitely a better look for the Adirondacks versus VT or NH with that track. Hope the globals stay east.

If the low cuts inland like the NAM, that depiction is a period of heavy cold rain after the thump. Verbatim.

I'm timing coming back up there on Sunday so in theory by the time I get there late it will be like the rain never happened! LOL

Hopefully the mesos are too amped and the globals stick with the more eastern solution.

00z NAM looks like a ton of rain for your area, just at quick glance. Unless I am mistaken about your spot.

Wrong forum?

We are saying the same thing. That's what I meant by saying at best they would be referring to Berlin when talking about "the mountainous north."

Yeah, as I mentioned before I don’t expect a custom AFD for Randolph. I adjust accordingly assuming they are writing that for Berlin, at best. Maybe Conway. Those are population centers. I was commenting more on the very disturbing language as a snow lover. It needs a trigger warning. LOL

Nice write up. Hope you are right. I am figuring we might get some eastward tics as we get closer too. That seems to be a theme in NE.

Being a reverse weenie is always the easier job.

I don’t expect a total wipeout unless the mesos start looking a lot worse. GYX just seems like an office that is not big on snow and forecasts for metro areas full of people who think the same way. LWX down here in MD is the same way. They talk about snow with a sense of dread and disgust sometimes. That’s what their customers want to read.

Latest GYX disco talking about this being a total snowpack annihilator. Not encouraging. I will pretend I didn't read that. LOL

The GFS twins and Euro are best-case scenarios for NNE, IMO. The mesos look pretty bad at the moment. Solid period of cold rain shown in there. Let's hope the globals have a better handle on this right now. It is encouraging that they haven't had any way west barf runs yet. Been holding pretty steady. The runs that take the low up through western Maine have some really nice upslope afterwards.

GFS (and it looks like the Euro and v16 too) has been consistent for several cycles now with what looks like a secondary low that pops SE of here and heads up into Maine. Not an ideal setup for major snows or anything, but keeps the firehose east of here and keeps things colder. NAM and RGEM/GGEM are in the other camp, where Alex and I ride the atmospheric river straight over the falls. LOL

Yep, that makes sense to me. The GFS and Euro don't look too much like the NAM right now anyway. Still time to work out some details on this one. And, of course, being so marginal there will be surprises in different areas based on geography, anyway. Hopefully we get a nice 20 degree 12"+ powder storm across the area soon.

Snow, to heavy rain, to some backside snow. Sigh... It is what it is. At least the ground will be white again afterwards as we once again nearly reboot the pack building process. Hopefully the pattern after this stays active and doesn't go quiet again.

6 inches or so.

2020-2021 is making a run at the title so far here in terms of snowfall. We will see where it ends up.

Law of averages definitely says a good period is coming.

We are certainly not immune from a bad hemispheric pattern. I get that the mountains produce, the mountains are awesome, etc. But the mountains are not creating even seasonable cold air, or blocking warmth from surging north as a low approaches.

They've just been extra nasty lately. I am fine with snow to a little rain back to snow. Temps get into the low to mid 30s for a spell. No issues with that. 2 days of temps in the 50s with 4" of rain...? No. LOL

I get it, all snow is nice. But it will take 40-50" to even get me over 100" at this point, which is well below average and basically what Randolph received in the horrid winter of 2015-2016. I mean, at some point it is OK to acknowledge it's been a lousy winter. There is little pack OTG across NNE (especially Maine), lakes and ponds are barely iced over, the major ski places are not even 75% open even in mid-winter... 1-2" per day is fine as long as we have pack. Hopefully this Saturday event doesn't wipe out the fragile pack we all have. And yes, being in MD this week is causing these meltdowns. LOL

Well, for what little it is worth, the 12z NAM at least takes the low out further SE rather than through NH like it did at 06z.

Atmospheric River: "hold my beer"