PhineasC
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Everything posted by PhineasC
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I think the gang here said a track like the NAM up into Maine is best. Certainly a robust signal on the NAM for extended snows after the low is well past us.
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Really healthy backside snows on this run. Not sure if you’d call that upslope or just the CCB wraparound. Either way it looks good. Solid run. Gets parts of Maine well too.
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18z 12k even faster getting the low east. Thump, dryslot, upslope here.
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That does seem to be the case. I did really well in the marginal event early in December. About 18.5” between the synoptic stuff and upslope. Places close by but lower in elevation received much less. Hoping for a repeat this time, of course this track is very different. We’ll see. Seems like the atmospheric river total washout is off the table at least.
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1550'
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Yeah, blasts me with a big thump, followed by a little rain, and then upslope. Sign me up.
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12z GGEM is a little colder too. Less of a horror show run than 00z was. Trend is on. Let's see what happens.
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Feb needs to rock harder than a Judas Priest/Iron Maiden/Ozzy Osborne joint world tour to celebrate the end of COVID lockdowns to make up for this month.
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Don't disagree. If I was still down south full time, I would have read the tea leaves after Grinch and thrown in the towel then. The promise of future copious amounts of bread 'n butter and frigid temps is keeping me going here for now... I know it doesn't help you as a snowmobiler, but if the ski places can get and stay 100% open I will just punt the rest of the winter IMBY if needed.
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People are talking about something much, much broader now. Basically unavoidable for average folks.
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Damn, the worm has gotta turn soon...
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The government always messes up this stuff. Centralized planning fails every time because humans aren't always rational or all that predictable.
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It will be a refreshing change of pace to see a cold front blast through here quickly to shut off the rain instead of getting stuck in PA for 24 hours like happened in the last two cutters. Here's hoping...
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The 06z NAM and RGEM show a fairly short window of plain rain here. Very likely a decent period of non-accumulating slop on either end of that too. The track is really bad but the surface result isn't terrible. Seems like they ticked a little colder. Rates also look really good for MBY for a period which might hold off some of the rain. They seem to support the general idea we are targeting.
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Agreed, I just hope the rain period is shortened and it will at least be cold rain, not the 60 degree Grinch nonsense. I have about 5 inches OTG right now. I am figuring by Sunday night I could still have that in some form (perhaps glacier layer with fluff on top, or perhaps just 5 inches new fluff). It's pretty sad that this is what we have to work with this winter. This is more like a MD winter storm, where we are begging for scraps and hoping the rain is cold...
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The scenario some of us are hoping for is a heavy snow thump of 3-5, followed by a short soak of 35 degree rain (not a pack annihilator), and then finally back to several inches of upslope powder. Freeze that all solid afterwards. That’s how this becomes a net gainer. We will see.
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The GFS and Euro folded to the mesos on the VT/NH border track.
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The survival rate is north of 99.7% You possibly can still spread COVID after getting the vaccine. You still need to wear a mask and distance indefinitely after getting the vaccine. All of the above leads to a rather weak value proposition for many people. That’s even before you add in the conspiracy stuff and the fact it’s still emergency use.
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I have employees who would say vaccine passports are one of the most insidious violations of their personal freedoms imaginable, akin to stealing people's babies at night and taking them away in vans. I have others who would say, unless I force each employee to show their vaccine passport every morning via a company-wide Zoom call, I am literally killing people. It is starting to really worry me how entrenched everyone is becoming on every single issue...
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Hoping for some east tics (messenger shuffle) over the next couple of cycles as we close in.
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It is already bad. Many businesses (mine included) are facing legal threats from both sides of the debate. Some say we go too far trying to protect everyone, others say we don't go far enough. Both sides have arguments they can make related to personal freedom of choice and safety. It's a total mess. There is no way I would throw gasoline on that fire by even having an official opinion on the vaccine, much less mandating it...
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The people who refuse the vaccine want us all to move on, they are practically begging for it. The number of people who refuse to get the vaccine and also want to stay home masked-up indefinitely is very small. That tiny group wants to be able to stay at home and we can let them do that. And LOL at the idea that the current "dystopia" is going away once the vaccine is widely distributed.
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As an employer, that is far more complicated than it sounds. Probably different as a medical professional. My employees are mostly teleworking, or at the very least not customer-facing. It is hard to imagine myself mandating they get a vaccine they don't want.
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They are OK with taking the risk with a 99.7%+ survival rate. None of them want the lockdowns to stay in place.
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The 00z GFS is still pretty decent. Definitely not buying the NY/VT border track. Basically just one panel where temps are iffy.
