StormyClearweather

And ticked north a tad. Noise, but still. **edit to end of run

It can stop now. Also, too bad it's the iCON.

Low might be a tickle south on the ICON, for those who celebrate. Regardless, good snows falling for most by 12Z Monday.

I feel like CMC is always too cold, especially beyond 48 hours, but I sure hope I’m wrong.

I take back what I said about the ICON 6 hours ago. She looks good. Love that follow-up thump.

Reading that NWS PHL discussion in their forum was depressing. I wish I hated snow.

Absolutely 100% agree, but it's not showing up in the grid forecasts. Everything I'm seeing is all snow. It's almost like they're talking directly to us nerds or something, i.e. "Stop focusing on the snow maps."

From LWX Disco THE BIGGEST AREA OF FOCUS OF THE THE LONG TERM WILL BE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING FROM THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND, BRINGING WINTRY WEATHER TO THE REGION SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY. THERE REMAINS A GOOD BIT OF MODEL DISCREPANCY REGARDING THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, THEREFORE LEADING TO UNCERTAINTY WHEN IT COMES TO A SNOWFALL AMOUNT AND PRECIPITATION TYPE FORECAST. WHILE TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE ARE EXPECTED TO STAY NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING, MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A PROLONGED WARM NOSE LEADING TO PRECIPITATION TYPE TRANSITIONING FROM SNOW TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN. THIS WILL LEAD TO LOWER SNOW TOTALS THAN SOME MODELS ARE CURRENTLY INDICATING. 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A LIGHT SHIFT NORTH FOR THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, WITH ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS CONTINUING TO SHOW A GOOD BIT OF DISCREPANCY. PRECIPITATION ONSET WILL LIKELY BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION MOVING OUT OF THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

Or better yet, expand those pretty pinks. PV version:

Check out those DPs

To me, NAM looks very close to ECMWF at 84, but that's just the surface, which is all I know how to look at.

Except with far lighter QPF. But agree in general.

To my untrained eye, ECMWF AI looks wetter for most of us than 12Z (noise-ish level). Low position is roughly the same as 12Z. It shows precipitation breaking out for most at or after 6Z Monday. 12Z

He meant Ji. Also GFS is faster again.

Yep, ICON souther and even faster than the Euro now.

Was just about to post the PW version, with the 24-hour option:

Man that looks sexy. Sped up a bit vs. 6Z, better matching the Euro's timing.

Well CMC is certainly different than 12Z. I make no calls, but maybe good signs so far?

Verbatim, GFS has many of us go below freezing by 3Z on the 7th and stay there through the end of the run (12Z on the 14th).

A little too progressive for my liking. Wound up at .10 here.

Sign me up. (For entertainment purposes only.)

Forecast models seem like they'd be one area where AI can make a rapid impact. Curious to see how this evolves: https://www.theverge.com/2024/12/7/24314064/ai-weather-forecast-model-google-deepmind-gencast

It's a good thing we know that JB would never stoop to the level of hyping something without substance to boost the subs. Seriously though, I get why people post his takes on here, but do people really still follow and listen to him?

BWI: 7.4” DCA: 5.1” IAD: 9.6” RIC: 3.1” Tiebreaker (SBY): 5.9