StormyClearweather
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Everything posted by StormyClearweather
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Inferring from your comment that you don't love the FV3? I don't follow it much, so genuine question.
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And with a bit more to come, it appears.
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It doesn't look that way to me. Just a break between the initial wave and the back-end stuff. Sorry for small size - file size limitations.
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Agree 100%, but if anything, it nudged a little bit south vs. 6Z (talking about the 12k).
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3K NAM at the end of its run. Should be a bit more to come with nice ratios.
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Was just about to post that. Would be great.
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12z 3k is also colder than 6z at the same time.
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3k continues to be a tad colder re: thermals. I don't know which is better at what, but that feels like a good thing?
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But back to snow by 51, or close to it.
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Yeah you’re right - I was focusing on the edges. Decent run.
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It looks like less QPF to me, vs 12z. Am I missing something?
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CMC is a bit south - 5-10 for most.
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Def some drama tonight. ICON isn't really that bad, nor is it very different from 18Z for most of this forum. RGEM isn't great, but it's been bouncy for the past 24 hours and is one model run.
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I know it means nothing, but it makes me feel good, so I'm going to say it - FV3 nailed today's "event" for NoVa, at least. Even showed the two rounds we wound up getting.
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18Z Ukie appears to be staying the course with its southerly track at 18Z (only goes to 66 for me).
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Feels like they're slowly but surely coalescing. 18Z model runs thus far. One thing I'm noticing is how juicy and north-ish the GFS is to our west.
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Stealing @yoda's words, since we seem to post these at the same time, "interesting distribution."
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PV soundings have sleet by 15Z on Monday:
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Just slight changes
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Genuine question: Would you disregard the ECMWF's/Ukie's far southern track, then? It seems other models have been shifting that way today, but maybe it's going to wind up as a meet-in-the-middle type deal?
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Yeah, it's tight, but looks good:
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EPS with a slight bump in QPF for most. Doesn’t look like it moved north or south much, if at all.
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Yep, and I pasted the wrong map. Thanks, and fixed.
