StormyClearweather

4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

So the GFS is an Evansville, IN->Augusta, GA->Knoxville, TN->75 miles East of Hatteras track. K, got it 

Right where we... want... it?

Pretty good for this far out. 

I'll take it!

6 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

18z took away the little bit of Front end snow from the front runner. Damn.

 

But gives us a nice little backend burst, for whatever that's worth. 

Dec. 29 showing another opportunity, too. 

Damn that's pretty. 

3 minutes ago, H2O said:

I get trying to keep roads safe but this brine stuff is gonna ruin our watershed over time. I’d almost prefer they go back to sanding as it happens

I know you said "sanding" instead of salting, but still an interesting piece on the issues with salting vs. brining. 

Road Salt Works. But It’s Also Bad for the Environment. - The New York Times (nytimes.com)

It's a decent step, fwiw:

I'm still pretty new to this area, but isn't CAD generally underdone at this range? Or maybe not since this is not the traditional CAD look?

18Z GFS remains wintry for the Thu PM/Fri period.

17 minutes ago, yoda said:

Too bad no CAPE... that's a decent sounding at 132 on the 12z GFS 

LWX alluded to that in their disco and seemed to be saying they think the CAPE is underdone. They don't say why, though.

ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE  
NEARLY 80 KNOTS OF WINDS AT 850 WHICH SUGGEST THAT WE WILL HAVE  
SHEAR WELL OVER 60 KNOTS AS THIS FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE   
REGION. ALTHOUGH CAPE AT THIS RANGE IS FORECAST TO BE RELATIVELY  
LOW, I SUSPECT THE CAPE IS BEING UNDERDONE. IF WE ARE ABLE TO   
GET EVEN A FEW HUNDREDS OF CAPE COMBINING WITH 60+ KNOTS OF   
SHEAR, THE REGION COULD SEE A DECENT SVR THREAT.

Just now, CAPE said:

NW crew are gonna like the NAM nest.

Concur.

1 minute ago, H2O said:

This sucks

Sure, I guess if you were expecting more than a 1-2 (for most of us). Also shows a little snow band Sunday night too, for whatever that's worth. Still going in Baltimore at this point. 

Ya HRRRRRd?

12Z

It's the HRRR toward the end of its run, but quite warm nonetheless. Precip is mostly gone by this point. Trended warmer since its 18Z run. 

Perhaps we should start a thread on how to name and organize the threads. 

Anyway, not bad in the 10–14-day period. 

Definitely a much warmer trend for Friday on the 6Z guidance, which isn't surprising. Assuming it holds, does this combined with the Sunday storm debacle mean the GFS sucks again? Just want to make sure I have my talking points right. 

I post the snow map because none of the others seem to have loaded yet on WB (weirdly enough). It's north of 12Z for sure.

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

Anyone got the total ZR map? 

Yeah, Sunday storm goes south of us (most of us anyway).

GFS and the Euro definitely seem to be meeting in the middle -- although wouldn't surprise me at all now if they just pass each other right by. *edit wrong run posted originally

2 minutes ago, LP08 said:

I know its been stated but the NAM is 10-15 degrees cooler tomorrow afternoon comparing to the GFS/HRRR.

LWX alludes to this in their discussion today:

THERE IS A CONCERN FOR A LITTLE FREEZING RAIN AT THE ONSET OF   PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME HIRES GUIDANCE IS   INDICATING THIS. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW BECAUSE MOST   GUIDANCE THAT IS INDICATING THIS, SHOWS MAX TEMPS WEDNESDAY TO   BE IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 30S UNDERNEATH LOW CLOUDS THAT DO NOT MIX   OUT. HOWEVER, THE LAYER APPEARS TO BE SHALLOW, SO LATEST   THINKING IS THAT THE LAYER SHOULD MIX OUT LATE IN THE   MORNING/AFTERNOON, CAUSING HIGHER MAX TEMPS THAT WHAT THAT   GUIDANCE IS SHOWING. THIS WOULD KEEP THE THREAT MORE ISOLATED   (PERHAPS HIGHLAND COUNTY OR WESTERN MD).

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

lol, doesn't move in 3 hours.  78, same position 

81, finally moved...but only to SE DC border

Is there any precip left by then?