StormyClearweather

Thought it was sliding out to sea, but dang. Good call!

Hell, I'll buy the Vision Pro... but only if I get my full 18".

And it's only.... 9 days away.

Please tell me you have a link. CR was one of the greats when I lived in the Carolinas!

EDIT: 12/20: Snow shower - trace (how could I forget this?! /s) 12/24: Mulch topper 1/3: 0.3” 1/6: 7.3” 1/11: 1.8” Total: 9.4"

And with the recurring theme of cold being somewhat overdone in the long-term, I'm feeling decent about where we sit. Though I don't know if the AI has been overdoing it as much as the regular models.

I moved up here a little over three years ago, and it does feel relatively close to the snow climo I remember in the foothills of SC back when I was a kid in the 90s. I don't actually think it's quite that "bad," but it's not far off, realizing the last three years hasn't been awesome for this area. Side note: I was shocked when I read yesterday than Greenville (and RDU and other areas) had gone 1,000+ days without snow.

Well decent is a relative term for this system. I'll be pleased to get a fresh dusting on top of my snowpack.

3K NAM looks decent at the end of its run, and we all know how flawlessly it performed earlier this week.

Not bad.

That's what makes you the best at it. We had someone similar in the SE forum when I lived down there (h/t @burgertime) before he moved off to Europe. His go-to was "BOOM!" I'll gladly take either a "BOOM!" or a "FOLKS."

It's been a nice little band! Those to my north probably did even better, but it's been pretty light or steady for a couple of hours now. Can't be too mad.

5.8" here, and thrilled for the jackpotters, especially since they're not the typical jackpotters.

It's already been stated by the smart people here, but LWX mentions the dry air in the latest disco. Snippet below. THE ONSET OF SNOW HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT SLOWED BY THE AMPLE DRY AIR IN THE LOWEST 250 MB. THIS IS SHOWN QUITE WELL IN THE 00Z IAD SOUNDING, GENERALLY BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND 750-MB, WHICH IS CHARACTERIZED BY A LOW/MID RH OF 20-25 PERCENT. HOWEVER, THE ELEVATED CORE OF PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO COOL AND MOISTEN THE LAYER BELOW THROUGH EVAPORATION AND WET-BULBING PROCESSES. EVENTUALLY THE ENTIRE AREA WILL TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW ONCE RESIDUAL DRY AIR IS ERODED.

Reminder that it's based on older runs and such, but latest NWS Blend is nice:

I wish I had your self-control. #masochist

I don't know if this is sarcastic or not, so I'm going to answer and say that, at this range, probably not at all. But it's very pretty to look at.

Maybe the RAP was on to something.

Okay, snow map pron time.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 354 PM EST Sat Jan 4 2025 DCZ001-MDZ013-014-503-504-VAZ053-054-501-505-506-526-527-050500- /O.UPG.KLWX.WS.A.0002.250106T0000Z-250107T0600Z/ /O.NEW.KLWX.WS.W.0002.250106T0300Z-250107T0600Z/ District of Columbia-Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-Northwest Montgomery-Central and Southeast Montgomery-Fairfax- Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Northern Fauquier-Western Loudoun-Eastern Loudoun-Northwest Prince William-Central and Southeast Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park- 354 PM EST Sat Jan 4 2025 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet accumulations between 5 and 9 inches, with amounts of 10 to 12 inches possible in isolated spots if heavy banding sets up in this area. Ice accumulations of a trace possible near Interstate 66. * WHERE...Portions of DC, central Maryland, and northern Virginia. * WHEN...From 10 PM Sunday to 1 AM EST Tuesday. Highest snowfall rates occur overnight Sunday into early Monday morning. Snow may mix with sleet and perhaps some freezing rain Monday morning into the afternoon, especially right along the Interstate 66 corridor. A lull in precipitation will occur sometime during the afternoon. * IMPACTS...Roads, and especially bridges and overpasses, will likely become slick and hazardous. Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the Monday morning and evening commutes.

NWS Blend

I think it's more that it tightened up the QPF a bit than really moved. Although I guess it's really just noise (just not the kind we like). And fortunately, it's the ickycon, so.