StormyClearweather

And the latest from LWX. BY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, ATTENTION WILL TURN TO A POTENTIAL WINTER STORM. MOST GUIDANCE HAS THE SYSTEM'S AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE DEEPENING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AND THEN TRACKING OFF TOWARD OUR NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR SNOW ACROSS THE AREA SOMEWHERE DURING THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME WINDOW, WITH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING CURRENTLY LOOKING LIKE THE MOST FAVORABLE TIME PERIOD FOR SNOW. WHAT REMAINS IN QUESTION IS JUST HOW MUCH SNOW WILL FALL. WHILE SEVERAL OF THE 12Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS DEPICT A SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORM DURING THAT TIME WINDOW, ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW CONSIDERABLE SPREAD WITH RESPECT TO SNOW TOTALS, WHICH IS TO BE EXPECTED THIS FAR OUT IN TIME. THE FLOW PATTERN LEADING UP TO THIS EVENT HAS A LOT OF MOVING PARTS. THIS WEEKEND'S SYSTEM, THE LARGE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER CANADA, AND AN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL ALL INFLUENCE THE UPCOMING EVENT DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. POSSIBILITIES AT THE MOMENT RANGE FROM A SYSTEM THAT LARGELY REMAINS SUPPRESSED TO OUR SOUTH, WITH JUST A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW, TO A MAJOR SNOWSTORM WITH OVER A FOOT OF SNOW. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOULD SLOWLY COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO WHERE WE'LL LIE WITHIN THAT RANGE OF POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS AS WE MOVE CLOSER TO THE EVENT.

Latest NWS Blend. Didn't change much from 13Z.

1059 high at 84 centered just north of Montana. Woof. (I don't know my Canada geography sorry-not-sorry).

I didn't see anyone post CMCE, and for good reason.

...says the guy crawling the thread and commenting that he's not interested. Kidding. I keep telling myself the same thing, and I keep refreshing model runs like knowing faster somehow matters.

Latest NWS Blend

There's a block button for a reason. There's plenty of toxicity in the world without needing to bring it to a freakin' weather board. I love frozen water as much as the next weenie, but c'mon now.

UK Ensembles a bit better vs. 12Z FWIW

Thank you. Personally I think we'll have a better handle by Thursday, Friday at the latest.

This is a safe space. You don't have to lie to us. I know that's hard for you, though.

I know little, but the surface depiction looks Euro-esque to me. That can't be bad, right?

The LWX disco, or at least the portion most of us care about: THIS REINFORCEMENT OF COLD AIR COULD SET THE STAGE FOR A WINTER STORM THAT COULD BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO MUCH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE THURSDAY. IN TERMS OF THE SYNOPTIC SET UP FOR A NOTEWORTHY SYNOPTIC SNOW ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD, MANY PIECES OF THE PUZZLE ARE THERE IN THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE (I.E. DECAYING GREENLAND BLOCK, DOWNSTREAM 50/50 LOW, DECAYING WEST-EAST BASED -NAO, FAVORABLE RIDGE OVER IDAHO). NOW WHAT HAPPENS AS A PIECE OF ENERGY ROUNDS THE BASE OF A TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED UL LOW MOVES EASTWARD, WILL BE ESSENTIAL IN DETERMINING IF THIS IS A SNOW EVENT WE TALK ABOUT FOR YEARS TO COME OR A FEW FLURRIES. MANY DETAILS TO BE IRONED OUT, WHICH SHOULD HOPEFULLY BECOME MORE CLEAR BY THE TIME WE MOVE INTO THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK.

Hopefully we're stabilizing.

Or in PV's case, a lovely pink + salmon. #salmonstorm

Can we talk about how fun it would be waking up to this?

Pretty good forecast verification from NWS for most of us. I had my doubts this time yesterday.

12/20: Snow shower - trace 12/24: Mulch topper 1/3: 0.3” 1/6: 7.3” 1/11: 1.8” 1/14: Trace - late evening snow shower 1/16: .5" 1/19: 1.9" 2/8: .1” 2/11-12: 5.0” Total: 16.9”

IAD: 4.2" at 9:30

Just a touch over 3" in Potomac Falls

Note I said the previous two winters. Not this winter.

This. We're almost certain to see some snow falling and accumulating tomorrow, for the most part. That's more than most of us could say (outside of a single week in Jan. 2024) over the previous two winters.

For what it's worth... *edit correcting HRRR to 2Z

RGEM and ICON both look a touch wetter for most to me. Probably noise, but it's good noise, so we take.