StormyClearweather

Helene now up to Category 4. Going to be a wild night in the south.

Think you might be on to something! GFS is downright painful. You know it's dry when we're starting threads about a little rain.

Pretty good storm starting to wind down here. Torrential rain with an hourly rate of 6.18". Looks like we'll land at about 1.7", which is just a little less than I got from Debbie.

FWIW, 0Z HRRR looks pretty significantly east than the 18Z, though still plenty west to keep the folks who really need rain in on the game.

GFS looks to be holding firm on the southern track, re-landfalling near Savannah Thursday morning and pushing slowly west.

Dangerous Situation Warning up for cell in NoVa: Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 502 PM EDT Sat Aug 3 2024 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Southwestern Loudoun County in northern Virginia... North central Fauquier County in northern Virginia... Northwestern Prince William County in northern Virginia... * Until 530 PM EDT. * At 500 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Delaplane, or 15 miles north of Warrenton, moving east at 40 mph. THIS IS A DESTRUCTIVE STORM FOR DELAPLANE, MIDDLEBURG, AND ALDIE. HAZARD...80 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Expect considerable damage to trees and power lines. Your life is at significant risk if outdoors. In addition to some trees falling into homes, wind damage is possible to roofs, sheds, open garages, and mobile homes. * Locations impacted include... Middleburg, Marshall, Saint Louis, Aldie, Halfway, and Rectortown. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... This is an EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION. This storm is producing widespread wind damage across Delaplane, Middleburg, and Aldie. SEEK SHELTER NOW inside a sturdy structure and stay away from windows! Large hail, damaging wind, and continuous cloud to ground lightning are occurring with this storm. Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature's leading killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are

Wild. I said I'd be happy to get .3 today, so I won't complain, even if the dogs really, really didn't like this: https://video.nest.com/clip/67f945793cee4911bd068a93b2cee8b3.mp4

I checked GEFS maxes to at least have some hope of a respite, but nope - also shows straight 90s through the end of the run.

Are you seriously asking for people to take fault for failing to accurately predict the future weeks in advance, despite using the best science and guidance available at the time, all because you wanted more snow than you've gotten? Get over it. If you need that kind of accuracy, you need to stay away from this thread and stick to listening to the nice man on the news for your weather forecasts. With long-range forecasting comes great uncertainty. If you can't handle it, move on.

https://x.com/nwsstlouis/status/1758627226227277925?s=46 There’s still hope?

I know its value is limited at this range, but since I like what it shows, I'm sharing it anyway.

ICON. Noise changes mostly but a little improved from 6Z, I think.

3K is pretty similar, too.