StormyClearweather

Beautiful evening yesterday.

I don't hate this look. 3K NAM has it pushing through a couple of hours later.

I mean, someone had to post it. The weeniest of weenie maps.

And Kuchera ratios are 14 to 15:1. More like 16:1 in PSU land. Watch out!

Well this would be a nice little treat, I suppose. Better than cloudy wind.

Fair point, lake effect can obviously be tricky to forecast. But I think they're at 50" so far this Winter, so do they care? Maybe the answer is yes, but seems like it'd be similar to us being forecast to getting .5 of rain and only getting some clouds and drizzle.

Good guess. Try Stormy Clearweather from Reba. I grew up on that show, don't judge me.

I think it takes a lot less for Buffalo to get a good snow than it does for us, so in that way, sure. But I think anything that's well outside the norm (such as a major snowfall is for us) has a lot more room for error, because so many things have to come together for it to happen, usually. All Buffalo needs is a cold front with a westerly wind over a non-iced lake, etc. etc.

We used to have a rule in the Southeast forum when I lived down there: Take the model with the least amount of snow, and then divide the accumulation it shows by the number of days until the event, and set your expectations accordingly. Looks like even using that method on Friday/Saturday would've still overestimated accumulations for most of us this time. But it's a rule I'm sticking to moving forward. Okay, I'm lying. Way too much of a weenie for that.

Almost unbelievable. I just saved this down for future reference, and I still can't get over it.

Don't shoot me, but the... NAM... looks a bit... better...

I was thinking about this earlier. It hasn't done great this Winter. Maybe it's a La Niña thing? Just don't remember it whiffing this badly, even 5-6 days out.

Here you go! What fun!

And here's the first 24 hours for subtraction purposes (which doesn't have much of an impact)