NeonPeon

Crocuses blooming, even the shadiest banks almost gone. We're leaving an awful winter and heading into the interminable series of false dawn that is coastal spring. Hurray?

Robins strutting all over the park. Sun feeling properly warm. Almost no snow left. False dawns mud and fog till June. Was it too much to ask for a single significant snowfall?

Ah yes, March to June. Add interminable fog and you've captured the joy of spring here.

They have in my back yard against a longer mean. A half a degree colder in jan, almost bang on in February. Unusually high wind-chill though.

The temps here have been just about average, which is to say mean temps have been 3 to 4 degrees above what they've been the last five years. To hear people though, we are deep in an arctic tundra. There's definitely recency bias comparing to abnormal warmth but it also does feel cold, this is because it has been a remarkably windy winter, especially for one that hasn't really had any notable storms. On that front... This has been yet another atrocious winter for snow. With little to hope for in the forecast here and approaching March... This could be the third year in a row of single digit snowfall here.

It does happen, I think you've got a lot of confirmation bias here, in that we tend to remember negative outcomes. I've gone from no winter weather advisory to 13 inches once. Most negative busts I've had have been within a range of probabilistic forecasts, i.e. if you looked at the 10% outcome for a low snow output, then there you go. 10% isn't particularly unlikely. I think it's just the better the models get the more distant we look until we are at a point of relatively low confidence. Modeling has never been better, out expectations never higher.

Do you normally roll down the window and say I told you so, then loop round the next exit and repeat? That seems harsh.

We don't need a miracle, just ticks in the other direction. It'd have to stop ticking in the other direction first though.

Icon follows the trend. Whiff.

If you live in se new england, you'd be an idiot to not continue a watching brief. Season is almost over for us. There's still a decent chance.

Or in the later tuck scenarios, you could be in a comma while I put myself in a coma. This is some seriously paranoid detail to be looking into at this phase. I'm just going big picture. Is storm? Yes? Good. I'll find out exactly how I get screwed in good time, but for me, there isn't much time left. We don't get much snow in March down here. That paltry number you are circling would double my snow for the year. Yeah, it would annoy me, just as Juno did. But these noreasters are proper storms. That's always an actual experience.

New Orleans got more snow in one day than I've had this season to date.

It was fun to be top of all the leagues, but now that the knockouts have started we can't really say that anymore. I mean, sure, fill your boots, but still. I only need the league. And it's "the league" not the EPL... I feel dirty even typing it. There's nothing for me for these next couple systems. It's all about that chance at a bomb in hallucination range.

You call that fog? Hahaha.

It looks great if you are a marine mammal. It's actually this exact type of setup that we do well with from time to time, it's consolidating into a nice band. It's just mostly over water. Westerly/new london looks good.

Finally began snowing. Death band incoming. 1 inch? A few more of these and I'll be in double digits this year. Sorry, getting greedy.

I wish the radar actually looked like that. Still dry here, should start soon though. I'll take a refresher. I totally missed the last snow. Entire family got the flu, what an ordeal.

Blob over orient point, blob at the northern ri border, a rare case where the screw hole isn't here. Though it isn't exactly a hole since the entire thing is too fast and ragged.

2 so far, always interesting when there's little wind. Not bad at all, it's just all moving too fast. If this was slower there would be even more have and have nots though, I'd guess. The best stuff down this way is falling in the sound so far and just offshore.

Wasn't the idea of dry slotting making local qpf forecasting moderately difficult something raised days ago in the actual forecast discussion by box. What is new about this?

The box forecast has a very typical gradient of doubling snow from Newport proper to about 10 miles north of here, and that's typical. I'll still take it, but when these things show themselves across models, my experience is that my microclimate underperforms vs over performs. The bay likes to warm. I need any ptype issues out to block island to not be worried, more robust antecedent cold, and much more dynamic powerful systems than this.

Speak for yourself.

This is beginning to look more slushy than sleddy for the kids Sunday morning. The dreaded "a good region wide event."

Went skating on the pond again. You never know when it'll be the last time. Definitely the last time in this little stretch, the warming was making it start to sound a little sketchy, and it's open water in places from yesterdays melt.

Whoever reported 3 for Newport is full of it, but that's probably that Middletown location. Enough to sled on for three hours and I'll take that.