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Everything posted by dwagner88
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January 15th-17th 2024 Arctic Blast/Snow Event
dwagner88 replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
It's also mixing down here. Kuchera is lower than 10:1. -
January 15th-17th 2024 Arctic Blast/Snow Event
dwagner88 replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
Not sure what algorithm the Carrot weather app uses, but I woke up to a forecast of 10” of snow from it this morning. Not ending until Wednesday. I don’t put much stock in that, but it is interesting to see. -
January 15th-17th 2024 Arctic Blast/Snow Event
dwagner88 replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
It appears to have given my area a little more buffer to the southern edge. It got more of northern GA this time. -
January 15th-17th 2024 Arctic Blast/Snow Event
dwagner88 replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
This is probably the best shot at subzero temps in Chattanooga in my life. If we get the good snow cover shown on many of the globals, we have a real shot at it. I don't think it has happened since January 1985 (-10 and the all time record). I was born in 1988. -
January 15th-17th 2024 Arctic Blast/Snow Event
dwagner88 replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
Trowal? Definitely some enhancement along I-75 there. -
January 15th-17th 2024 Arctic Blast/Snow Event
dwagner88 replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
The NAM's tendency to over amp things may be contributing to the valley p-type issues. Arctic air push is also frequently under modeled. It's dense. It should spill right in. It could be right, but I'm not as worried since it is on an island right now. -
January 15th-17th 2024 Arctic Blast/Snow Event
dwagner88 replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
Man I really don't know what to think down here. The globals are all game on. The short range models do not like this entire corner of the state. -
January 15th-17th 2024 Arctic Blast/Snow Event
dwagner88 replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
Oddly, you might actually be better off in a hotel in Knoxville for this one. It's a strange storm. -
January 15th-17th 2024 Arctic Blast/Snow Event
dwagner88 replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
Historically, MRX considers Hamilton county to mean Chattanooga. They won't issue advisories or warnings if the event only affects Lookout and Signal mountains for example. I don't see them doing anything differently this time. -
January 15th-17th 2024 Arctic Blast/Snow Event
dwagner88 replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
They would be foolish to leave out Meigs and Rhea at this point. That just leaves the southern border counties. I wish I could say I've never seen that before, but sadly I have. -
January 15th-17th 2024 Arctic Blast/Snow Event
dwagner88 replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
Sadly, I think MRX will go with WSW for the entire CWA except Hamilton, Bradley, and Polk Counties. I think this one is going to be quite painful for SE TN snow lovers to watch. Likely to be the only area in the state shut out. -
January 15th-17th 2024 Arctic Blast/Snow Event
dwagner88 replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
An impossible forecast for here. Nothing at all in my corner of the county. 4" in the northern portions of Hamilton. -
January 15th-17th 2024 Arctic Blast/Snow Event
dwagner88 replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
Take some comfort in the knowledge that this has got to be the least likely eventual outcome based on past history. -
Pretty good dusting on Signal this morning. I had some sleet pellets in the valley of my roof. But I did get up to see the first flakes of the season fall. They are very late this year.
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Tons of flooding this morning. We may crack 4" from this system. I can't believe we don't even have a flood advisory out. It's borderline FFW conditions here.
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January Medium-Long Range Discussion
dwagner88 replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
I can't remember if it was the Feb storm or the big Jan 96 blizzard, but one of those storms gave us almost 6" of sleet down here. It was like a marble countertop everywhere. Absurd sledding. MRX is missing KCHA ASOS data from that winter, so I can't look up when it actually happened.- 1,263 replies
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Fall/Winter Banter - Football, Basketball, Snowball?
dwagner88 replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
Hwy 111 between Soddy Daisy and Dunlap will be a good spot this weekend. It gets up to around 2300' and is all controlled access freeway. There are a few spots along the ridgetops that always seem to have snow showers when the wind is blowing the right direction, even if they don't show up on radar. -
December 2023 Mid/Long Term Pattern Discussion: Let it Snow!
dwagner88 replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
Jeez. We cleared over 2" with this system. It rained HARD yesterday. Sorry NE guys missed out.- 548 replies
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December 2023 Mid/Long Term Pattern Discussion: Let it Snow!
dwagner88 replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
Early January 2011 overrunning event. Only time in my life there was a stress free snow. Zero modeling had us getting missed, and temps were in the low 20's when it started. The models had that one keyed in from 7 days out. Even the superstorm was in doubt by many. February 2015 was close to stress free, but not as certain via modeling.- 548 replies
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December 2023 Mid/Long Term Pattern Discussion: Let it Snow!
dwagner88 replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
Seems like there is one every year around that time. We've had many years in the past with either winter threats, flooding, or severe weather.- 548 replies
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Overperformed this rain event also. 2.36” in the bucket since Friday morning. Nearly 5” in the past 10 days. That’s awesome. Maybe El Niño is finally reverting to type.
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I even managed 19 down here yesterday. That's odd for TYS.
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We actually overperformed this rain event. 1.80" IMBY. KCHA really cashed in with 2.60". We needed that.
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Heavy rain! Finally! First time since August 28th!
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That's good because today's threat is evaporating quickly.