dwagner88
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Everything posted by dwagner88
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KCHA got 5" from this! That's amazing.
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Yes. And pretty rapidly at the moment. Looks like it's moving through around one county per hour. It could stall out at some point though.
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Those great returns coming up the valley are the melting line. That's the transition to sleet. Enjoy those big flakes, they don't have long left.
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Yep. Switched to sleet about an hour ago. I can't complain though. We got about 4" before it shut off. Already been mashed down to 2" with the sleet. It's still very cold. 28 IMBY at the moment.
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Just did a 10 mile run. First run in the snow in YEARS for me. Started out as tiny flurries, but by the time I finished the sidewalks were getting slick and everything was white. I'm at work now, but when I left the house it was snowing moderately at 25 degrees. Cranking right now at my office off VW drive. We will see if it stays.
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I’m bouncing between 24-26. DP is 17.
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And now the NAM is looking a LITTLE better than before. Go figure.The margin is razor thin though. Once you go a single row of counties down into GA it's an ice storm.
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The FV3 looks like it will continue to be good along the southern border areas.
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HRRR appears to get us above freezing at the surface and the southern valley below about Athens gets a nice cold rain after some snow/sleet on the front end.
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Careful when the high clouds come in. Mine was also plummeting but has leveled off with some high clouds. 29 here. Not sure it actually matters all that much. The DP is 16. So the wet bulb is quite low.
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Any word about how things are progressing out west? Over/underperforming so far?
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It is showing a warm surge at around 800 MB for about 3 hours across SE TN. This gets reflected in the snow maps. I think there is going to be a lot more sleet than snow south of 40.
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Looks like we are going to miss our high temp again today. My PWS is only at 34 and appears to have leveled off for the afternoon.
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So much sleet. Really don't want that. The roads will be an absolute nightmare.
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January 2011? Although that may have missed the far NW corner of the state.
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GFS is a big improvement down here. Way less mixing over northern GA.
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That ARW run winds up with 5-8" south of 40, but I don't think it's done snowing in NE TN yet at the end of the run. Still doesn't like Greene county all that much. Downsloping I suppose.
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NAM is fringing on ice storm warning criteria here. Very little snow shown. Very reminiscent of January 2024.
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Oh man. That was a heartbreaker.
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Where is this from? It is wildly different from the 10:1 output on pivotal. WAY more snow across MS, AL and GA shown here.
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Might be wish casting a bit, but that's also what I'm thinking. I'm being reminded a bit of January 2009. That was even more marginal than this event. No accumulation forecast for the southern valley. Wound up with 5" from that one. Dynamics won out.
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That looks frighteningly close to last January here. Really hoping the dynamics win out. If they do, 6-8" easy. If they don't 1-2".
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Probably doesn't matter much at this point, but we didn't come close to our forecast high temp today. Just barely got above freezing at 33 in the warmest parts of the city. Outskirts and mountains remained below.
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I could be totally off base here, but my gut tells me the dynamics at play are going to keep TN all snow for this event. If you look at the 850 temps on the NAM, you can see them sneak above 0 south of I-40, then as the levels saturate they quickly cool below freezing starting in Northern MS and AL and spreading northward. The wetbulbs are well below freezing. I don't see enough warming to actually cause a changeover. Might see lowered ratios and sloppy wet snow though.
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Lol. MRX grids have rain Friday afternoon now for here. Lucy is coming for the football.
