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dwagner88

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Everything posted by dwagner88

  1. dwagner88
    Yes. I would at the minimum cut this in half. We won't get 10:1 anywhere except the highest elevations.
  2. dwagner88
    There was a coating of slush on my back deck this morning. Ground was too warm for any accumulation. It's snowing lightly at work in Cleveland right now.
  3. dwagner88
    4” overnight will pretty much shut Chattanooga down at this point. We already had quite a bit of flooding with the first round mid morning today.
  4. dwagner88
    There is an alarming amount of rain on all of the globals over the next 8 days or so. Double digit totals seem possible for many. I suspect that we could make a run for the wettest month on record if the overall pattern doesn’t change soon.
  5. dwagner88
    Hammering down right now. Over 2” for the day. Looks like plenty more to come.
  6. dwagner88
    MRX is notoriously stingy with Flash Flood Warnings for some reason. I've only been under a handful here my whole life.
  7. dwagner88
    The radar does not look good for Knoxville. The convective cluster in southern middle TN needs to take on a more northerly motion right now. Looks to me like there may be an MCV forming causing the more easterly motion.
  8. dwagner88
    Most of the globals did not have a good handle on the rain this evening even as late as the 12z runs today. GFS had me at around 0.10" by this time. I'm quickly closing in on 1".
  9. dwagner88
    Some parts of Chattanooga had hail accumulation from the strong cell that came through last night.
  10. dwagner88
    I work for TDOT. We had a crew parked on the shoulder of hwy 64 today just to respond quickly to small slides. There were already 2 this morning along parksville lake. One was starting to encroach on the westbound lane. There will be more by the end of the week.
  11. dwagner88
    Thunder IMBY now. There is a lot of instability, but evidently not much forcing. Precip rates are pretty light. Only 0.30” here all day so far. Lots of thunder though.
  12. dwagner88
    I’ve been in Polk Co at work all morning. It’s been sleeting on and off since I got here. Obvious bright banding on the radar means a changeover is iminent.
  13. dwagner88
    As a basin average, it looks like expected totals for this week have dropped about 10-15%. I suspect the reduction in crest is due to that alone. It is, however, very difficult to predict runoff amounts with such a thoroughly saturated ground. I’m happy to see modeling reduce the extreme rain amounts shown over the weekend, but I would like to see some model consensus on a clear ending to this crappy wet pattern.
  14. dwagner88
    That far NW corner of north Georgia is in the south chickamauga creek watershed. That creek represents the largest flood threat to the Chattanooga metro. It was impounded with levees after the 1973 floods. The last time they were tested was May 2003. We could have a comparable crest to that event next week.
  15. dwagner88
    I don’t think I can remember ever seeing this much rain forecast with so little convection. Of the roughly 10” qpf at KCHA forecast next week, only 1.50” is convective on the 12Z GFS. Probably means the likelihood of totals busting high or low is minimal.
  16. dwagner88
    A pretty severe flash flooding event is setting up over Chattanooga tonight. Training cells + saturated ground = trouble. Rapidly approaching 3" in the bucket and getting torrential rain right now.
  17. dwagner88
    If I get a chance I will. I'm now an employee for TDOT, and my jurisdiction includes Mcminn, Bradley, and Polk counties, so I won't get much opportunity to work in Monroe. Polk has some good mountains for chasing, but none of the roads are paved. Right now I'm working on stabilizing a rock slide in the Ocoee gorge.
  18. dwagner88
    Maybe we can make it through a winter event here without having to hear about CAD!
  19. dwagner88
    It is worth mentioning that power was out all day over this entire area. The older portable Tvs don't work anymore, and only one chattanooga radio station broke coverage for warnings. So basically if you didn't have a battery powered weather radio, you would not have known a thing. I live a couple of miles north of ringgold and west of Apison, and I had no clue what was going on because the batteries in my weather radio were dead.
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