Weatherdemon

Ugh, yes. I think I hate it even more now though...GFS

It’s killing me. This storm as modeled has been brutal. NAM says 2-3 for Tulsa now and the 3K likes 3-4 so, I guess that’s something to hold me over until the next heartbreak run.

Just saw that? Seems strange...

Seriously... Exremely frustrating.

12z GFS and NAM pretty warm. NAM still "cold enough" for 3-5. A lot of things can still happen but I'll forever hate the GFS if it nailed this several days out... I don't care for it as it is as it always lets us down... now in both ways, LOL.

Tulsa NWS Benton-Carroll-Washington AR-Madison-Crawford-Franklin-Osage- Washington OK-Nowata-Craig-Ottawa-Pawnee-Tulsa-Rogers-Mayes- Delaware-Creek-Okfuskee-Okmulgee-Wagoner-Cherokee-Adair-Muskogee- McIntosh-Sequoyah- Including the cities of Rogers, Bentonville, Berryville, Eureka Springs, Fayetteville, Springdale, Huntsville, Van Buren, Ozark, Charleston, Pawhuska, Bartlesville, Nowata, Vinita, Miami, Pawnee, Tulsa, Claremore, Pryor, Grove, Jay, Sapulpa, Okemah, Okmulgee, Wagoner, Tahlequah, Stilwell, Muskogee, Checotah, and Sallisaw 429 AM CST Thu Dec 6 2018 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow and sleet accumulations of 1 to 3 inches, with localized amounts up to 6 inches, and ice accumulations of up to two tenths of an inch are possible. The most likely area for the locally heavier snow amounts will be over the higher terrain of northwest Arkansas. * WHERE...Portions of east central, northeast and southeast Oklahoma and northwest and west central Arkansas. * WHEN...From late Friday night through Saturday evening. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on difficult travel conditions. Significant reductions in visibility are possible

Only at 15z Thurs right now

GFS at 3.3 inches by 21z Sat in Tulsa. That's already 2 inches more than previous run.

Tulsa NWS needing more data before issuing watch. Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 933 PM CST Wed Dec 5 2018 ...UPDATE... .DISCUSSION... A rather wide range of temperatures was observed this evening, with low dewpoints/light winds allowing a few spots to quickly fall below forecast lows already. Have generally lowered temps across most of the area the remainder of the night, although increasing clouds should keep lows from completely bottoming out. Quick look at the 00Z NAM doesn't clear up the winter weather potential, as it maintains a band of significant snow/sleet northwest of I-44 with a secondary max across parts of northwest AR. NAM has been consistent with previous runs but also a significant outlier as far as amounts go. A winter storm watch will likely be needed, but don't have the confidence yet to put one out without seeing more 00Z data/model runs

Wow. NAM still not backing off.

Don't know but, the NAM just kicked off

Damon Lane calling for 3-6 across the expected areas and 6-12 for parts of western OK almost to Enid and Stillwater. OKC metro in the 3-6.

3-6 seems to be the generally accepted amounts for Tulsa at this time.

Mine is a screenshot from the YouTube update. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HwsMs_4m1BI

CH 9 in OKC has 4-8 inches from SW OK through NE OK. Width covers virtually all of NE OK. along with .25 of ice in the same area.

OUN Discussion: Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 405 PM CST Wed Dec 5 2018 .DISCUSSION... We have high confidence in impactful winter weather across the forecast area. The main changes were 1) to confined to precipitation chances to southern portions of the area through early Friday morning, and limited probabilities across northern Oklahoma until late Friday/Friday night, 2) to make minor adjustments to ice accumulations and amounts, 3) increase snow amounts across portions of western and northern Oklahoma, 4) increase precipitation probabilities, and 5) significantly lowered post-event temperatures Sunday into Monday given expected snow cover. Low level saturation near/behind the cold front tomorrow doesn't appear to be sufficient for drizzle or freezing drizzle but we'll need to watch the trends in the observations. Further south, deeper moisture and a more pronounced near-surface saturated layer below capping warm/dry layer may yield some drizzle. Temperatures there will be warm enough for no freezing concerns. For post-frontal temperatures through Friday we went with the low end of model guidance (NAM, WRF-ARW) which seems most reasonable given the pattern and character of upstream cold/dry cP air mass. Models are in fairly good agreement with synoptic scale features. A closed mid-upper low will move across the Southwest tomorrow night and Friday and through the southern Plains Saturday. Large scale ascent and deepening moisture will eventually lead to light precipitation across the area, but it's onset, amounts, and resultant impacts from icing are probably the most uncertain part of the forecast at this point. There will be a west-southwest to east- northeast corridor of potentially impactful icing, including the possibility of tree and powerline damage as well as travel problems. This would be commensurate with icing amounts that approach or exceed 0.25 inches Friday and Friday night, and appears to be most likely across southwest Oklahoma extending up near and south of the I-44 corridor. We may need to adjust the highest chance of freezing rain further south from current graphics based on the latest model forecast soundings which show a deeper cold layer across the northern half of the area supporting just light freezing drizzle, and eventually sleet once dendrite probabilities increase through saturation <-12C. It's also worth noting that our cold NAM/ARW hourly temperatures may not be cold enough and at least low-end icing event may evolve further south than earlier thought, to around the Red River and into western north Texas. Where freezing rain does occur, accretion should be tempered by latent heat release where temperatures are at or just below freezing. But, 10-15 knot northeasterly winds may help offset that some. So fairly optimal ice-to-liquid ratio according to the FRAM model could develop. Again, potential rainfall amounts will need to be monitored closely. Fortunately, this is not expected to be the most optimal scenario for significant icing which would occur with colder temperatures and higher QPF amounts. We trended more aggressive with sleet potential given strengthening warm nose aloft and it's possible that sleet could at least briefly be the dominate precipitation type in a band from southwest/west- central Oklahoma eastward along and either side of the I-40 corridor, especially Friday evening and overnight. Saturday morning, as the closed low passes to our south cooling aloft will support all snow. There are some model differences by then with regards to the degree at which the low becomes closed. However, ECMWF matches well with its ensemble mean counterpart, and the spread in GEFS members is minimal for this time range as well. Deterministic GFS matches this reasonably well, and the GFS-FV3 is slightly more closed off/anomalous. All this is to say that although some slowing or slight variations in track could alter ptype placement and amounts, overall confidence is fairly high given that the peak of the event is about 3 days out. The aforementioned described synoptic setup is favorable for development of a pronounced TROWAL and deformation snow event as the deep low passes south and southeast of the area. One potential limiting factor for more robust snowfall amounts could be mixing of sleet given currently depicted thermal profiles, but current thinking is that models could be too aggressive with this and a longer duration of moderate to heavy snow could form across portions of the area. 2-4 inch snowfall amounts should be common across much of the area (especially the northwest half), and there could be a band of 6+ inches given impressive QPF amounts that have been consistent in models. We lowered temperatures after the system departs given likely snow cover. BRB/PW

Their discussion below. No mention yet but I would bet you're right. A rea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 322 PM CST Wed Dec 5 2018 .DISCUSSION... The big story continues to be the potential for wintry weather Friday into Saturday. Winter weather headlines will likely be needed as impactful weather is expected across portions of eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. A cold front is slated to move through eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas on Thursday with the potential for rain in the vicinity of the boundary as it moves through the area. Temperatures will be noticeably cooler on Thursday behind the cold front. The precipitation shield will begin to return to the north on Friday as isentropic lift increases north of the frontal boundary as it continues to sag south toward the northern Gulf of Mexico. Some of the precipitation along the north edge of the precipitation shield may fall as a wintry mix of freezing drizzle and light snow Friday. The potential for wintry weather really ramps up later Friday night into Saturday as an upper level moves out of the Southwest United States and across the Southern Plains. With this forecast Package went with slightly colder surface temperatures than the blended model guidance provided and an even blend of the GFS,NAM12 and ECMWF thermal profiles. Stayed fairly close to the WPC QPF with a small increase Saturday Night as a nod to the slower moving ECMWF. A wintry mix will transition to mostly all snow across the majority of the area by Saturday Evening as the cold air deepens before ending Sunday Morning. Of course, it is still early to give any real specific amounts of snow and ice. However, it is looking more likely that there will be impactful amounts of snow and ice across much of northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas Friday Night into Saturday. It all depends on the ultimate track and strength of the upper level as it moves across the Southern Plains. As we move into next week high pressure will build at the surface and aloft resulting in a slow warming trend across the region.

Here is a good Tulsa NWS graphic.

GFS starting to cool off. Pretty decent change in snow but ice about the same as last run.

I know. I really expected it to begin its stroll into reality this run, not flip out more, LOL!

I haven’t looked but I thought this run was supposed to have inland measurement data and ideally be more accurate?

My bad guys. Was on F5 and it said 12z but was old frames. Yea, I'm fired.... Thanks for posting the right one!

12z Euro still looks good for 4-6 in Tulsa. Not a lot of change from the previous run. Keeps things liquid until late Sat morning S of I44 in NE OK.