snowman19
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Everything posted by snowman19
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I could say the same about snow but I won’t. And not once did I say the word “warmth” you keep saying that lol
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February on track for a canonical Niña response. Very well coupled ocean-atmosphere system going into next month
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February on track for a canonical Niña response. Very well coupled ocean-atmosphere system going into February
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With the exception of March, 2018, which was driven by a record breaking, historic SSWE in mid-February; resulted in severe -NAO/-AO blocking and a major arctic outbreak, March’s over the last 10+ years have not been kind to us snow wise. Does that change this March? I have no idea
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I think one thing that will be different in February and is something we haven’t seen all winter long is the SE ridge finally making an appearance. Ever since the cold pattern kicked in the day after Thanksgiving, the SE ridge has been absent. @bluewave has already mentioned it a few times but it does fit February Niña climo as does -PNA
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Agree. No, you are not going to torch. But with the NAO/AO going very positive and no +PNA/ridge west off the west coast you are going to see SE ridge flexing and the risk of cutters/inland runners. It’s definitely not a “KU” look at all
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The difference now is that we are about to see both the NAO/AO go very positive. The stratosphere is projected to get record cold and the SPV is going to go on steroids and is going to couple with the troposphere. That coupling is something we haven’t seen thus far. The ++NAO going to allow the SE ridge to really flex, especially with the ridge way off the west coast
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This is a result of the SPV becoming extremely strong and starting to couple with the troposphere. The AO/NAO are both about to go ++
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If NYC doesn’t make it to 10 inches during the official winter season; between now and March 20th (1st day of astronomical spring) that would be pretty insane. Nothing looks likely the rest of this month, through 1/31. But to go the rest of the way, through all of February and up to March 20th with less than 10 inches, that would be nuts…..
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As far as the pattern, this MJO wave is very strong, convection is exploding, you can see it on the satellite views of the IO and AAM is dropping very negative. We are clearly going into a well coupled La Niña state by early February. It’s fitting February La Niña climo perfectly
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And we are about to see a very strong EWB the tail end of this month and continuing into early February
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The ensembles and operationals are all in agreement that we see a big pattern change by the beginning of February. The MJO is going to (finally) constructively interfere with La Niña, it has just entered the IO, confirmed by satellite and the SPV is about to go on steroids (near record strength/record cold stratospheric temps) and couple with the TPV SPV
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The drought from the fall never stopped. We are still officially in a major drought. You’re just not noticing it because it’s the dead of winter
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Verbatim that precip map could well be indicative of lakes cutters and inside runners
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I think early February, 2016 was the last time Rockland saw lows like this
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@bluewave @donsutherland1 The February pattern change cometh
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Next week, the pattern is completely unsupportive of any major snowstorms IMO. I don’t care what GFS fantasies may show up
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+EPO though unlike earlier in the winter
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The new HREFs are not suggesting 1” per hour rates for hours where they do occur. This thing is moving way too fast and doesn’t have the explosive deepening you’d want to see in order for it to really overperform
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Just a guess, I think this is going to be a general 3-4 inches for the entire metro area, the elevated areas of NJ and in Orange County NY should see some higher numbers. This thing is really flying, looks like it’s going to be all over around 11pm tonight
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EURO is 3-4 area wide @psv88 What isn’t true? That’s what the EURO on pivotal weather is showing, . 3-4 inches area wide. I’m not making it up
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And to think Mark Margavage was riding it like Sea Biscuit lol
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All the mesos except for the NAM lol it wants no part of this storm, never has
