snowman19

Not really understanding the argument that the models are overdoing the SE ridge “again”. This is the 1st time the models are showing a SE ridge this entire winter/end of fall, and 2nd, up until this point, we haven’t had a SE ridge, it’s been totally non existent since the end of November. However now, as @bluewave has stated, it fits La Niña climo; with the big -AAM drop, EWBs and the very late Niña peak/strengthening into early February and MJO progression we are seeing

It’s showing the MJO wave weaking as it heads towards phase 8 because of the relatively colder waters there and the enhanced, strong trade winds from the late peaking La Niña….shearing the convection apart…..there’s a possibility that it never makes it into phase 8 and gets sheared apart and encounters the colder waters

This is going to be one of the latest peaking La Nina’s on record. They are usually falling apart in February, not strengthening and peaking. Even for a late bloomer La Niña, this is ridiculous. IMO, this argues for a canonical La Niña pattern continuing for longer than some people are thinking

@40/70 Benchmark Remember back at the beginning of November when certain people said the La Niña was dead? Even suggesting that we were going to go warm-neutral? Even for a late bloomer Niña, this is ridiculous. It’s still going to the strengthening and peak in February

@Bluewave Big -AAM regime

At least so far this winter, we haven’t been chasing phantom SSWE mirages on the long range models

There’s nothing to stop the north trend. There’s no blocking, the NAO is going to be positive as hell at that point

I talked about it in the La Niña thread, but I’m really doubting a big -NAO/-AO blocking come back in March like some are musing on twitter. All the La Niña March’s that ended up with -NAO/-AO blocking had legit major to even historic (2018) SSWEs. There are no signs of that (major SSW) on any modeling right now through at least mid-February. I’m not really seeing a mechanism on the modeling through mid-February that would cause a big upward heat flux from the troposphere to cause such an event, there’s nothing to indicate a top down (downwelling) warming either. Guess we’ll have to see but as of today, I am very skeptical of some big flip to -AO/-NAO blocking at the tail end of next month into March without a major stratospheric warming

Agree about the -ENSO/+QBO/solar max evolution. At least through mid-February a major SSWE seems very unlikely. If one were to occur at the beginning of March, with the lag, we would be looking at late March (spring) before it would downwell enough to affect the tropopause….too late

I’m not so sure we suddenly go into a -AO/-NAO blocking pattern during the last week of February and into early-mid March like some are musing on twitter. Besides the very strong SPV and ice cold stratosphere, the La Niña years that went -AO/-NAO in March had legit major to even historic (2018), SSWEs. None of the models so far are showing that at all, and I’m not really seeing a mechanism on the modeling through mid-February that would cause a big upward heat flux from the troposphere to cause such an event, there’s nothing to indicate a top down (downwelling) warming either. Guess we’ll have to see but as of today, I am very skeptical of some big flip to -AO/-NAO blocking at the tail end of next month into March without a major stratospheric warming

Very strong +NAO regime coming up as we go into February @Stormchaserchuck1

Why are you posting yesterday’s 12z run?

@Allsnow The EURO/EPS wants nothing to do with a snow event this weekend, even north and west of NYC

This winter has fit a classic front-loaded Niña winter to a tee. Cold from the end of November through the end of January, then the canonical patterns kicks in by the start of February. Although we have had nowhere near the amount of snow 2010-11 had, we are following that front-loaded Niña winter pattern very closely

IMO, this late peak argues for a latter effect of La Niña on the pattern. I don’t see how a late peak argues for the pattern to end earlier. That doesn’t make sense to me. @bluewave pointed out that aside from March 2018, our March snow patterns have failed in recent years

This La Niña is not going to be denied. Region 3.4 is dropping like a rock, we are at the lowest of this entire event, moderate on the dallies, approaching -1.5C. The subsurface has also dropped the last week. There’s also a very strong EWB projected to continue right into early February

The NAO is also going to be positive as hell. Nothing about that setup screams big snow/ice south of I-84. No mechanism to stop it from moving further north in time

@Rjay This is looking like a SWFE. These almost always end up being New England events. The GFS being the furthest south at this range is no surprise at all, it’s destined to adjust further north. These always end up moving further north as we get closer in time. Would not surprise me at all if this ends up being an I-84 north snow/ice storm with very minimal onset frozen to rain south of there. We’ve seen this play out time and time again over the years…..

Region 3.4 dropping like a rock, the lowest of this event….approaching -1.5C. We are now at moderate on the dailies

If Paul Roundy is right about the tropical forcing progression, this happens at mid-February and we don’t go into deep winter again like Ryan Kane is saying:

Twitterland has had us buckled up since Thanksgiving. I’ve gotten 6 feet of modeled digital snow and twitter snow so far this winter

That’s something to look at in the spring for clues to what ENSO does next winter

@Stormchaserchuck1