snowman19

@Allsnow

You beat me to it. This looks like it’s going to be a very big fail for those on twitter who have been hyping and basically guaranteeing a February, 2018 SSWE redux the last week. A major SSWE and SPV split is starting to look extremely unlikely. Jason Furtado nailed this happening last week:

The models have really started to bail on the SSW and an SPV split. It’s becoming more of a wave reflection event now and a major SSWE and split is looking less and less likely:

@Allsnow The models have really started to bail on the SSW and an SPV split. It’s becoming more of a wave reflection event now and a major SSWE and split is looking less and less likely:

The HRRR has been very consistent run after run today that Connecticut is the sweet spot for tonight. It’s actually been cutting down amounts west and south of where the advisory is. I think it’s probably less than an inch south and west of the advisory area. The HRDPS is showing the exact same thing as the HRRR and has also been very consistent for many runs now HRRR: https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2025020217&fh=18&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1 HRDPS: https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrdps&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2025020217&fh=18&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

@donsutherland1just posted in the NYC forum about this. The NAO forecasts aren’t matching up, like not even close

I just find twitter hilarious today. You have clueless people screaming to the heavens that the -NAO/-AO the EPS and GEFS are showing for mid-February is directly from the *potential* SSW. Just goes to show how much misinformation and wishcasting there is on that app

Saw that. Let’s see if it holds. As far as this week and next weekend, I think those end up mostly New England events. I think the pattern is not favorable for snowstorms here during that time frame. Not sure about the following week though

It’s kind of weird how Dr. Amy Butler, Judah Cohen and Jason Furtado are not hyping this up at all. Haven’t heard anything about HM getting on board for a big SSWE either. If this was imminent, you’d think one of them would be talking about it right now. We’ll see I guess

Maybe, but the brand new runs of the NMME, CFS and CANSIPS are showing what the GEFS EXT does. All we can do is wait and see

@Allsnow Edit: That’s a real account. I double checked the CFS/GEFS EXT/CANSIPS/NMME….that’s exactly what those new runs are showing for February. The EPS and GEFS are at odds of what the MJO is going to do. They are actually world’s apart with the MJO. One of them is going to be dead wrong. And the new CANSIPS, CFS, NMME and GEFS EXT show this for February:

@donsutherland1 Despite what twitter is telling us/selling us, an SPV split and major SSW is very far from certain:

@Allsnow Despite what twitter is telling us/selling us, an SPV split and major SSW is very far from certain:

@bluewave The GEFS and EPS are world’s apart with the MJO. One of them is going to be dead wrong. And the new CANSIPS, CFS, NMME and GEFS EXT show this for February:

Lol I haven’t done well for temps this winter obviously but my guess is still February ends up with below normal snowfall. I think the gradient is north of us into CNE/NNE. I think the -PNA/SE ridge/+NAO/+AO/lack of a 50/50 low is an issue

Maybe, yes, but a February, 2018 SSWE redux? Lol I wish twitter and facebook lots of luck with that one, I think they’re going to need it…..

@CoastalWx You must be enjoying all of the out of control SSWE voodoo hype all over twitter and facebook right now. Spreading like wildfire. An exact replica/redux of February, 2018 is locked in and on the way lol

@donsutherland1 Although twitterland has locked in/wishcasted an exact replica of the highly anomalous, historic February 2018 SSWE, in reality, what exactly happens is very, very far from being decided. For starters, we have a completely different, night and day QBO evolution, not even close, the current MJO progression and this La Niña event in no way, shape or form resembles 2018. Good luck getting an exact redux of an extremely rare, record-breaking SSWE within 7 years apart

Although twitterland has locked in/wishcasted an exact replica of the highly anomalous, historic February 2018 SSWE, in reality, what exactly happens is very, very far from being decided. For starters, we have a completely different, night and day QBO evolution, not even close, the current MJO progression and this La Niña event in no way, shape or form resembles 2018. Good luck getting an exact redux of an extremely rare, record-breaking SSWE within 7 years apart

Imagine if I posted a 222 hour operational model run on here showing a torch lol

All and I mean all of your snow hype since the end of November has been an epic, monumental bust. Miserable fail after fail. Talk about the pot calling the kettle black.

Haven’t we had a near non stop -EPO since the end of November? NYC has seen less than 10 inches of snow since then

It’s weakening because of the late bloomer La Niña strengthening and peaking in February. As soon as it hits the colder Niña waters and the very strong trades the convection is going to get sheared apart and run out of steam. I’m not so sure we’re going to see the MJO 8 effects you think it may. Maybe @donsutherland1 and @bluewave can chime in their thoughts here

So a -EPO, ridge wayyy west of the west coast. Zero Atlantic and arctic blocking. Raging positive NAO, no 50/50 low, +AO, negative PNA and the SE ridge flexing. Cutter and inside runner city. Enjoy the rain in NYC

We’ve been buckled up for these awesome snowstorm patterns and digital snow on the models since late November. Remember the phantom Thanksgiving snow “threat”? Then we were told to buckle up for December. Then it was buckle up for January. Then it was buckle up for early February, now it’s buckle up for mid-late February. I’m sure next it will be buckle up for March. We just keep kicking the snow can down the road. The goal posts and finish line just keep getting moved further and further ahead in time. On Saturday, we will go into February with less than 10 inches of snow for NYC, total, since November. While I will gladly admit I busted on the cold up to this point, did not see that level of cold coming, the snow hype has also been a huge bust, a miserable failure. It’s The Boy Who Cried Wolf for snow at this point….