snowman19

The updated SSTA maps are showing that the marine heatwave has increased even more since last week….+11F anomalies off of China now. That’s insane @donsutherland1

Regardless of day to day changes, if we don’t start to see upward wave fluxes and warmings, the SPV is going to have no choice but to cool and strengthen once we get into November

After a weak to very weak start to the SPV for the last 2 months, it looks like the long range forecasts for strengthening starting in November are going to verify

I take nothing seriously from a quack who failed out of meteorology school

The new model runs are showing a brick wall of subsidence continuing in the tropical PAC. It’s been in place for months now (Niña/-IOD related). Don’t be surprised if the MJO wave doesn’t make it very far east of the Maritime Continent (phase 7) before it completely dies off. As far as the Atlantic hurricane season, I think after whatever forms in the central Caribbean next week, the season comes to an end. I don’t think it will be any threat at all to the U.S. mainland and it probably just moves west and buries itself into Central America or gets picked up and swept way OTS in the westerlies

I’m very confident that we see an Aleutian ridge regime this winter as opposed to an Alaskan ridge regime. I’m also extremely confident that we see a lot more -PNA this winter as well, if I’m wrong, I’ll own it

It would not surprise me if it dies when it enters phase 7

Obviously there are more drivers than ENSO and it does get too much attention at times. He is correct about the strong -IOD, ENSO and the West PAC warm pool being much stronger this year. IMO the real elephant in the room for this winter is the Category 5 “beyond extreme” marine heatwave ongoing off the coast of China that I posted about earlier today. I don’t think that is getting near enough attention

Yes. It is a category 5 (beyond extreme) marine heatwave and I think it’s being completely overlooked in regards to this upcoming winter. A marine heatwave this extreme is going to dramatically alter the global heat budget and I think it’s going to play a way bigger role than most people expect. Just like the extreme marine heatwave north of Australia that was totally overlooked back in the fall of 2019 and it ended up playing a very big role in the 2019-20 winter (++IOD) @bluewave

This jet extension was well modeled on the ensembles 2 weeks ago and it’s verifying. Maybe (hopefully) the models will have some clue about the long range this coming winter

The SOI connection during winter works during El Nino’s. When there is a big negative SOI drop during a Nino, it corresponds to an east coast trough afterwards. That said, that connection does not work during La Nina’s, even though a certain meteorologist from Pennsylvania says it does for subscription money

Mentioned it earlier, but I’ve noticed a common denominator among all the -NAO’s during the winter that kept “linking up” with the SE ridge/WAR….a New Foundland warm pool

The 20-21 fit Joe D’Aleo’s musing that solar minimums see a bunch of east coast hurricane hits….

@Bluewave

Over the last several years the New Foundland warm pool has been a precursor to -NAO linking up with the SE ridge/WAR

The -PNA tendency is alluded to in the follow up tweet. 2nd year Niña would support it:

As far as the NAO, the New Foundland warm pool has formed again, as was already mentioned here. I think this winter is going to be highly dependent on the PAC again (goes without saying I know). The common theme on the seasonal models is the Aleutian ridge….does it go poleward or flat most of the winter? A -PDO is a given at this point, but how negative?

A warm pool around the Aleutians makes sense. All the seasonal models are unanimously showing an Aleutian ridge this winter. It fits a normal canonical La Niña Aleutian ridge regime. They are also all maintaining a -PDO, strength TBD

This is AFTER yesterday’s nor’easter. Didn’t even make a dent in the long term drought. The staggering dryness since late July continues. Soil moisture is just as abysmal. So much for BAMWX’s hype back in September that the MJO was going to initiate some crazy wet pattern in the east in October along with possible landfalling tropical systems…..

There are signs that the SPV (which is weak right now) bottoms out in early November then starts to strengthen later on in the month….

If I’m not mistaken a bunch of the -IOD/Nina years saw -NAO/-AO in November. It looks like at least early November is going to start with a weak SPV