snowman19
-
Posts
9,319 -
Joined
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by snowman19
-
If this pattern continues into November, at least as far as the “warm blob”/2013 SST pattern, it’s going to be real difficult to continue to use it as an SST analog. The warm blob came right back in early November, 2013 and we went into a Victoria mode PDO for the winter. So far, the cooling has not reversed over the last month and is continuing….
-
The one main staple over the last several winters besides the negative ENSO tendency and reoccurring MJO phases has been the marine heatwave in the NW PAC around Japan. It’s been extremely anomalous
-
-
This current -IOD is the strongest in 17+ years
-
@Bluewave This may end up being the strongest storm/low in history for the Bering Sea….almost 950mb
-
-
It would not call this a pure east-based La Niña. Not CP/Modoki, but this does not look like a 2017 evolution, which was a true east-based event
-
One important difference is the AAM. Last year at this time it was in full on El Nino (positive). This year, it is and has been very strongly negative
-
I still won’t be surprised if we finish around or just under 100 ACE for the season. If that happens, like I’ve said, using factors such as La Niña/-PDO/-PMM/+AMO, warm MDR as justification to predict an active Atlantic hurricane season need to be re-evaluated. Maybe things like solar cycle, etc. need to be figured in. It’s akin to how some were using the amazingly persistent ++AO since spring to argue for some big arctic sea ice recovery, which didn’t happen
-
All you have to do is see the names and look no further….BAMWX, Mark Margavage, JB, Henry Margusity, Tony Pann, Mike Masco, severe-weather.EU…and you know it’s going to be hype about a very cold and very snowy winter
-
NOAA/CPC has upgraded to a La Niña advisory today
-
-
-
Yes. I saw a study (probably the one you’re referring to) years ago that tied IOD forcing into the WPO
-
I don’t think anyone on here at least expected anything more than a weak La Niña
-
16-17 was strong -IOD and a +NAO winter
-
-
Seems like it happens every year for the last several….this shows up in October/November, never to be heard from again until late March/April
-
The way X is hyping this as a classic extratropical “nor’easter” is totally laughable. It very clearly has subtropical characteristics and should be classified as such
-
Isn’t the point of this board to discuss all different ideas? If it’s that much of an issue, just say the word and I won’t post on here anymore
-
-
@Stormchaserchuck1 Some NAO and AO musings
-
@bluewave How is your MJO signal shaping up so far this month? It looks like the MJO is finally going to propagate eastward out of the IO to the Maritime Continent (phases 5-6) at the end of this month, not very strong amplitude however….
-
Verbatim that’s showing a very muted STJ which would not be a surprise at all
-
@GaWx Have you seen the new EURO seasonal maps yet? I just read that they are out and are showing a prominent Aleutian ridge winter, but I have yet to see the actual maps posted
