snowman19
-
Posts
8,716 -
Joined
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by snowman19
-
The SREFS are basically the ensembles for the NAM suite. They absolutely nailed the last event along with the operational NAMs. The global models and even the RGEM and HRRR were complete disasters. They were insisting on NYC getting, 2, 3, even 4+ inches of snow run after run, were way too cold aloft and completely busted the warm nose. It was embarrassing how bad the NAM beat them. Same setup tonight
-
The primary/parent low is already well north and projected to keep driving north, as Contentwxguy pointed out, the new SREFS are anemic at best for snow and have a rapid transition to sleet tonight even NW of NYC. The NAM is absolutely believable and it does extremely well with the thermals for warm nose events. The globals and even the HRRR and RGEM completely busted terribly on the event we just had Thursday, the NAM and SREFS schooled them. They kept insisting on 2-3 inches of snow in NYC and the city ended up getting 0.5 before the sleet ping fest started. Similar setup tonight, if not a stronger warm nose. We have an extremely strong midlevel WAA/warm nose event coming up and the midlevel low tracks suck for snow here. I would not be surprised at all if this is a quick 1-2 inch hit of snow before we go into a ping fest, even up where I am in Rockland. IMO tonight will be remembered for sleet, not snow
-
@SnowGoose69 @wdrag There is going to be a very strong, potent midlevel warm nose extending well north tonight and we are going to go over to sleet even up to Orange, Sussex and Putnam. In situations like this, the globals and even some mesos will completely miss it and bust horribly on snow totals. It also appears the primary is going to drive quite far north now. Go with the NAM suite/SREFs for situations like this. The RGEM and HRRR can even be way too cold aloft for these, see this past event we just had
-
Yea, IMO New England is the place to be for all snow tomorrow night. Agree with Mt. Holly. I think the entire metro area, including north and west goes to sleet after some snow initially. It may be a real extended ping fest tomorrow night and I doubt we ever go over to all rain. Something like a 1-3, 2-4 north and west of the city for the combined snow and sleet totals. This seems to always happen in our area at the last minute and New England cashes in with SWFE’s @LibertyBell Yes. They probably aren’t getting more than 6-8 inches of snow in New England because this storm is going to have the jets on tomorrow night and Sunday morning. It’s flying too fast to produce much more than that. There’s screaming zonal flow
-
That’s quite the downgrade. WWA and only 2-4 inches total of snow and sleet for Sussex County, NJ. Can’t say I’m shocked though given what the hi res (3K) NAM, SREFS, extended HRRR and the NBM are showing. If the global models are even showing a substantial warm nose extending north and west of the city at this range, you know it’s going to mean business tomorrow night, since they always underestimate them
-
I’m not so sure this is an all snow event even for places like Bergen, Rockland, Westchester. I think they go over to sleet too. This is probably about the only time you will ever hear me say this, but because of this warm nose setup, the 3K NAM may be the way to go tomorrow. The globals aren’t going to pick up on the warm nose strength/location until it’s too late
-
Pretty much the only time the NAM (especially the “high res” NAM/NAM-NEST) excels is in events that have a warm nose, like the one coming up this weekend. It’s the rare occasion where it can score a coup
-
The CMC is even seeing a pronounced warm nose now, it turned it to sleet all the way up to High Point State Park on this latest run. Considering that the globals are very likely underdoing it, can we completely discount models like the high res NAM-NEST? I normally ignore the NAM suite but in special situations like this with a warm nose, it can sometimes actually score a rare coup. FWIW, the extended HRRR and the SREFs are similar to the NAM-NEST as well Link to the NAM-NEST in case anyone wants to look: https://weather.cod.edu/forecast/legacy/ @SnowGoose69
-
I will say this, if this blocking is for real, once it decays and goes away, I think it’s full on, full bore spring, adios winter come early March. Which would be quite the change from the last many years
-
I’ll bite. IF that look is actually real, again, big if, because we are talking about 2/19 here, it would be primed for a KU event up the coast in the 2/20-2/23 time frame. The caveat obviously being that’s it’s 14 days out and the EPS has shown long range pot of gold at the end of the rainbow mirages that suddenly disappear in the past (i.e., last winter’s long range phantoms)
-
After what the GFS just I’m kind of surprised the EURO looks like that. Figured it would bump north
-
Agree. If there was a -NAO block or strong 50/50 low to counteract the SE ridge and force everything south/lock the surface high and confluence in, it would be game on Saturday night. I think we are just seeing the beginning of a north trend
-
Here comes the last 48 hour north trend @Allsnow warned about yesterday. The surface high leaves and moves OTS before the storm gets here, there’s no -NAO block or 50/50 Low to hold confluence/high in and the AO is positive. Also, you have the SE ridge flexing. If convection blows up in the SE the latent/sensible heat release aloft is going to strengthen the SE ridge even more. There is a decided midlevel warm nose on the GFS now, also one on the RGEM. The midlevel low tracks aren’t good either. I don’t think the north trend is done
-
I agree. That midlevel warm nose means business tomorrow. This is an inch of snow, maybe 2 NW of the city then sleet
-
The GFS is having issues with snow algorithms. It’s incorrectly showing sleet and freezing rain as snow:
-
I’m not doubting the EURO/EPS this close in. I don’t care what the other inferior models like the ICON and UKMET are showing. This is the EURO/EPS “deadly” range. And the GFS/GEFS snow algorithms are having big issues with snow output, specifically showing sleet and freezing rain as snow. See this:
-
I’m talking about the GFS sounding in that post, not the NAM’s or the RGEM’s. Just click on the GFS precip type map at the time it’s showing snow and the sounding comes right up on Pivotalweather. Its own sounding doesn’t support the precip type it’s showing. The RGEM did the same, the sounding at the same time doesn’t support its own precip map, showing snow, they are sleet soundings not snow soundings
-
The GFS is making the same mistake as the RGEM with the midlevel warm nose. Look at the GFS soundings, those thicknesses and midlevel temps = sleet, not snow. It’s showing all snow when it should be showing sleet. So the 10:1 snow ratio maps are getting inflated. It has a sleet sounding, yet it’s showing all snow. And using the HRRR at this range is definitely not advisable at all. It’s nowhere near its accurate range
-
I wonder what the bias-corrected EPS is showing. @purduewx80 any idea? I don’t have the link to that
-
@MJO812 @Allsnow I never doubted a stretching/wave reflection event. That wasn’t my argument. My point is that the models have completely lost the major SSWE and subsequent SPV split they were showing, which have tremendous staying power….30-60 days like March and April, 2018. All of March and April had strong high latitude blocking and cold and it didn’t finally breakdown until the beginning of May that year. Wave reflection/stretching events have a limited amount of time for their effects and last nowhere near as long as a major SSWE with a split do. @bluewave has made this point a few times
-
^This. With those soundings, it’s going to be sleet not all snow like the RGEM is showing, not with those midlevel temps and thicknesses. No way in hell would it be all snow. Plus, when there’s a strong warm nose event like this one is going to be, the models always underestimate the midlevel warmth at this range. Wouldn’t surprise me if this is a quick transition to sleet after a quick 1/2 inch to an inch of snow
-
I never said it means warmth and it’s going to get very cold and blocking is going to develop. I’d have to be an idiot to deny that fact. However, it does mean that the blocking and cold is not going to lock in for a month or two like it may have, had we had a major SSWE and subsequent SPV split, i.e. March/April 2018
