snowman19

Perfectly normal “behavior” for every IOD cycle, positive or negative. They peak in Northern Hemisphere fall (usually October) then start to rise/fall and neutralize in winter. This is the strongest negative event in over 17 years

Agree with your take. Given the very strong -IOD, I would not write off some additional Niña strengthening come November with the constructive interference it provides

@Gawx Sunspot average for October is 125. While an obvious downtrend from last year’s solar max, solar and geomag activity remain high

This -IOD is the strongest on BOM’s weekly records, which began back in 2008…. @40/70 Benchmark

Where that cooling is taking place along the west coast of North America, off Baja and up into the GOA with the warmth under the Aleutians is reminiscent of a -PDO “cold horseshoe” something we haven’t seen in quite awhile

The million dollar question….does it actually make it into the PAC or does it die out in phases 6/7 and end up back in the IO? The end of month propagation to the Maritime Continent (finally) looks like a certainty now but the MJO has been exhibiting very erratic behavior for the past few months now with barely any eastward movement before it circles right back to the IO

I don’t expect a 2022-23 deep RNA either but more -PNA than last winter? Absolutely

I too would like to see the MEI, if it ever comes out that is. We are very clearly in a stronger and well coupled La Niña atmospheric and oceanic state than last year at this time

That New Foundland warm pool makes me suspect we are going to see the infamous -NAO linkage with the WAR/SE ridge

This is quite the -PMM developing the last 3 weeks

Did you read the part where I said that things DO match up with last year at the beginning of my post?? All I did was point out that the AAM is different. Geez Louise

It’s starting to look like the MJO wave isn’t going to make it past phase 6/7 (MC) before it hits strong subsidence, dies and ends up back in the IO again. That will likely result in yet another big drop in an already persistently negative AAM. As much as some things match up, at least as far as the AAM goes, this fall has been world’s apart from last year….

The updated SSTA maps are showing that the marine heatwave has increased even more since last week….+11F anomalies off of China now. That’s insane @donsutherland1

Regardless of day to day changes, if we don’t start to see upward wave fluxes and warmings, the SPV is going to have no choice but to cool and strengthen once we get into November

After a weak to very weak start to the SPV for the last 2 months, it looks like the long range forecasts for strengthening starting in November are going to verify

I take nothing seriously from a quack who failed out of meteorology school

The new model runs are showing a brick wall of subsidence continuing in the tropical PAC. It’s been in place for months now (Niña/-IOD related). Don’t be surprised if the MJO wave doesn’t make it very far east of the Maritime Continent (phase 7) before it completely dies off. As far as the Atlantic hurricane season, I think after whatever forms in the central Caribbean next week, the season comes to an end. I don’t think it will be any threat at all to the U.S. mainland and it probably just moves west and buries itself into Central America or gets picked up and swept way OTS in the westerlies

I’m very confident that we see an Aleutian ridge regime this winter as opposed to an Alaskan ridge regime. I’m also extremely confident that we see a lot more -PNA this winter as well, if I’m wrong, I’ll own it

It would not surprise me if it dies when it enters phase 7

Obviously there are more drivers than ENSO and it does get too much attention at times. He is correct about the strong -IOD, ENSO and the West PAC warm pool being much stronger this year. IMO the real elephant in the room for this winter is the Category 5 “beyond extreme” marine heatwave ongoing off the coast of China that I posted about earlier today. I don’t think that is getting near enough attention

Yes. It is a category 5 (beyond extreme) marine heatwave and I think it’s being completely overlooked in regards to this upcoming winter. A marine heatwave this extreme is going to dramatically alter the global heat budget and I think it’s going to play a way bigger role than most people expect. Just like the extreme marine heatwave north of Australia that was totally overlooked back in the fall of 2019 and it ended up playing a very big role in the 2019-20 winter (++IOD) @bluewave

This jet extension was well modeled on the ensembles 2 weeks ago and it’s verifying. Maybe (hopefully) the models will have some clue about the long range this coming winter

The SOI connection during winter works during El Nino’s. When there is a big negative SOI drop during a Nino, it corresponds to an east coast trough afterwards. That said, that connection does not work during La Nina’s, even though a certain meteorologist from Pennsylvania says it does for subscription money