snowman19

Correct. Weak Niña aside, @bluewave found a pretty strong correlation to weak MJO forcing in phases 4-6 in October. As of now, that is what the models are showing happening. Of course, that can change though

If @bluewave indicators hold, it definitely doesn’t look promising. Weak CP La Niña and the progged weak MJO 4-6 forcing starting around mid-October…..

2007 is way better than some of the other ones floating around social media (83-84, 95-96, 10-11, 13-14, 17-18, 20-21)

Oh jeez you’re right. Must be a glitch this morning, the bottom one is up to date. Still a very CP signature

Amazing how fast the subsurface warmed and went to a purely CP signature. There’s actually +5 anomalies just below the eastern ENSO regions now….

Agree. Once the MJO pushes into the Maritime Continent again (albeit weakly into phases 4-6), we very likely see another lull in the Atlantic with compensatory sinking air over the basin. By then we will be into mid-late October, so starting to get very late for any hyperactivity at that point in time as we get closer to November

Sorry, I work double shifts to pay off all the loans I took out for that wedding

One thing is for sure, this La Niña definitely looks like a central-based/CP event now. The only cold subsurface water left is in region 3.4 @40/70 Benchmark

I’m starting to get a good idea of where we are headed for winter. Going to wait until the beginning of November to make a final guess and write something up here, but safe to say my analogs are not going to be 83-84, 95-96, 10-11, 13-14, 17-18 or 20-21……

Would not surprise me at all to see a final Atlantic ACE of 90-110 come 11/30

Strong -PMM developing and quickly….

I was kind of doubting an official Niña for awhile but the recent cooling and projected cooling/EWBs in region 3.4 coming up, along with the rapidly developing -PMM, -IOD, severely -PDO, the SOI finally going positive (albeit weakly), the MEI coupling and the continued Niña background forcing state (OLR), gives me confidence that we do see an official weak La Niña (ONI)

The ensembles are showing a huge ridge developing from just east of Japan to the western Aleutians and a big vortex in the GOA at the beginning of October. If correct, we are going to see strong upwelling and cooling of the SSTs in the GOA

Here comes the next round of SST warming from east of Japan to the western Aleutians. Positive feedback cycle

Looks very likely now that we see a weak, central-based La Niña (ONI). The RONI is a different story. The MJO is going to traverse back to the Maritime Continent (phases 4-6) next month and we are going to start seeing the enhanced trades/EWBs again and the SOI should rise. The PMM and IOD going negative only lends more support to Niña development…the -PDO goes without saying

The February, 2008 storm wasn’t even that “big”, just over 6 inches for NYC, biggest storm of that winter at least

If it wasn’t for that February snowstorm, 07-08 would have easily been 97-98, 01-02, 11-12, 19-20 level bad for the NYC metro area

I don’t like 2020 because of the solar minimum

Until there is a full scale AMO change, it’s probably not going to stop happening

Marine heatwaves, low arctic sea ice, etc. AGW at work….

That’s where the “match” ends. It’s a horrible match/analog IMO both PAC and Atlantic, we disagree then

Sometimes twitter is good for laughs. Just saw the 83-84 “analog” dropped again. I mean I get the desire to predict December of ‘83 and all but lol Makes me wonder where some of these guys get this stuff. Besides -ENSO/+QBO, terrible. Solar? No match. AMO? No match. The funniest part is, this person said the PAC matches. A +PDO matches this year? Lol That year was also volcanic (El Chichon). I guess you can argue that we had the Ruang eruptions that reached the cumulative VEI 5 back in April but it definitely was not on the volcanic stratosphere level of El Cichon

In agreement on everything, although I think we see some deeply negative PNA at times. Also agree that we do see at least a weak Niña now with the IOD going negative and interfering with development in the next few months

Correct. If you compare September and the projected early October pattern, it looks nothing like 2013. It’s not even close