snowman19

Yes. The models are still showing persistent enhanced trade winds/EWBs in ENSO 3.4. If they are correct and it looks like they are based on the totality of the other synoptic features, then there will be cooling in that region and the SSTAs will drop to La Niña territory this month and into next month…..

Not vitriol at all and I’m not totally dismissing it. The seasonal guidance last winter was beyond awful and I bought into it. The only one who didn’t (Bluewave) ended up being right. I view it with extreme skepticism until proven otherwise now. Remember when the EURO weeklies and monthlies kept showing massive blocking for February and March? It sure fooled me with the Nino in place. They kept insisting on MJO 8-1-2, -NAO/-AO/+PNA/-EPO/-WPO, off to the races, severe cold and KU’s barreling up the coast, run after run after run. Fool me once shame on you, fool me twice, shame on me Edit: @40/70 Benchmark My post was about last year, not 21-22 or 22-23

After the utter dumpster fire debacle with the long range models last winter, I’m going to watch the real time observations and patterns and make my forecast next month based on those, not what some long range model says is going to happen. The people who blindly followed the models last winter got burned and failed horribly. It was a disaster

I don’t believe for one second that there is no La Niña this winter like the EURO is showing. Hard sell on that one. Every run flip flops on ENSO like a fish out of water

How many times is the EURO going to show a La Niña then go to cold-neutral/La Nada then back again before this winter starts? Back and forth, back and forth like a schizophrenic. How can you trust it?

FWIW the new Meteo-France showing a canonical CP Niña this winter:

It’s warm below region 1+2 because this is a CP Niña event. Barring something really weird happening in the next 3 weeks before November arrives, I think the main drivers for this winter are probably already set…..CP La Niña (weak), very strong -PDO, -PMM, -IOD (weak), +AMO/New Foundland warm pool, +QBO, solar max/high geomag, low arctic sea ice, MJO very likely favoring phases 4-6, AGW, near average Atlantic ACE?. The only question I have at this point is what effects if any and likely minor (does it potentiate the Niña/+QBO/high solar effect on the AO?), will the cumulative VEI 5 Ruang volcanic eruptions back in April have on the stratosphere. We won’t know the answer to that question until after winter is over

As far as a typical Niña/-PDO/+QBO/solar max response, yes I agree

Subsurface cold continuing to build, models are getting stronger with the EWB in region 3.4. Fits with the MJO propagating to the Maritime Continent TIWs showing up in 3.4

EPS is developing a massive GOA vortex around mid-month. Fits MJO 4-5, October, -ENSO composites

Looks like another Atlantic TC shutdown is coming. I also think the huge solar spike we are seeing right now is contributing to this as well. IMO, 100-110 ACE is where we finish this tropical season Hopefully we see OISST update again soon. Been happy to at least see the TAO, CRW and the QBO data still coming in

Beat me to it, just saw the updated number (+10.36). Since it just went positive in June, my guess is a peak around January or thereabouts

The subsurface under region 3.4 is cooling down quickly again. Now it really looks like a CP event

Other than some residual warmth it shows in the GOA, it still has the colder anomalies developing there. Other than that, I don’t see a huge difference

My guess is that the Atlantic is about to go quiet come mid-month. Huge shear profile starting to show up and the MJO is going to propogate 4-6 (Maritime Continent) with a subsidence response over the Atlantic basin. When you combine that with the big solar spike (upper atmosphere warming/stability) we are seeing, it screams a big drop in TC’s Also, here comes the suspected GOA cold pool, as a normal progression downstream from the big Bering Sea cooling we saw last month:

I remember people on twitter posting the weeklies just before the season started, showing a big season coming up Edit: And if it was another model then I apologize but I do believe it was the weeklies just before the season began that was getting hyped

Color me very skeptical of that EURO forecast. It has been busting badly on ACE this summer as it is

Big jump, back to well over 200. When you combine this with the MJO propagation to the Maritime Continent later this month, my guess is another shutdown of Atlantic TC’s

@Stormchaserchuck1 @GaWx Any update on September’s QBO number yet?

@Gawx Here comes another solar spike. Very large sunspot group showing up with major flares. Radio flux and geomag also going up Also, the IOD got more negative (-0.39), all models now showing it on the negative side of neutral going into November, increasing confidence in a weak CP event going into winter: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#tabs=Indian-Ocean

EWB right smack dab in the middle of 3.4. More support for a central-based/CP event growing: Eastern Region 3:

In the last 30 years, nothing can compare to those 6 winters (95-96, 02-03, 09-10, 10-11, 13-14, 14-15). For the most part, they all tipped their hand by the end of November then it was “bombs away” for months, in most cases right through the beginning of April. The exception being 10-11 which shut off and ended in February. Had it kept going, I have no doubt we would have beaten 95-96

Agree. I would also add 02-03 to that list

Big Aleutian ridge/high signal

The problem I see with 13-14 and I know you have discussed it several times is the PDO configuration (basically +PDO). IMO, the North PAC SSTs have to change big time and very quickly for that to become a viable analog. That PDO configuration lead to the -EPO/-WPO and at times very strongly +PNA. The AO/NAO was wall to wall strongly positive; all PAC/+TNH driven. The MJO forcing was also very different, it was also a cold-neutral/La Nada