snowman19

Did you actually bother to read my post? I was talking about snow in NYC metro area not temperatures. It was easily one of the worst winters for snow in the last 30 years there

I’ve thought it was BS ever since the super El Niño back in 15-16. I’m sure you remember it well. Judah was predicting and hyping a very cold, arctic winter for the east because his index showed way above normal Siberian snowcover buildup in October. Even as ENSO 3.4 hit +3.1C at the end of November, he just kept chiving on and going with it

The huge Thanksgiving Day torch set the tone for the 07-08 winter. It was by far one of the worst winters for snow in the NYC metro area in the last 30 years. Ranks right up there with 97-98, 01-02, 11-12, 19-20 and 22-23…..

Models getting more aggressive with the trade wind bursts in region 3.4. We are probably solidly into a weak CP Niña by the end of this month. Also, the -IOD and -PMM appear to be gaining strength

IMO we are canonical Niña in February. 20-21 would have never had the 2/21 blocking if it wasn’t for the solar minimum, again IMO

Latest SSTs: Radio flux is off the charts…over 310 now. Sunspots well over 200. Solar/geomag states:

Judah Cohen:

Judah Cohen

There actually is a strong solar connection to the NAO, @Gawx has shown this several times. HM and Isotherm also used to speak of it in detail. Sunspots and radio flux aside, there is and has been a constant geomag onslaught going on. High geomag alone very strongly favors +NAO

The WPO may prove to be variable I agree. As far as -EPO blocking, not so much. That would be a very hard sell for me IMO. Not with a GOA and PDO that look like that

If there is pronounced poleward Aleutian ridging/-WPO, then that would obviously change the game. If it does happen, I would think it would be early on (December). Want to see what happens over the next 3 weeks (brings us to early November), but I think we face a hostile to very hostile NAO and AO, getting pretty confident in that. I don’t see the PNA playing ball either, obviously not to the extent of 22-23 but hostile none the less. I doubt much cooperation from the EPO either; why? GOA cold pool, very strong -PDO, Maritime Continent 4-6 forcing very likely favored and SST cooling starting to extend west from there (GOA) to the eastern part of Aleutian chain

A bunch of the preliminary outlooks I’ve seen on X have above to well above normal precip from the mid-Atlantic through New England. I guess stranger things have happened given AGW, but this time around, I doubt it

Good luck and I agree that this winter will end up drier on the east coast than some think. I know some people are expecting well above normal precip but I’m not of that opinion right now

Good point. Maybe there is a lag? If there is a total shutdown again after Milton, your lag theory may be right

@Gawx

Classic CP Niña development; impressive, sustained EWBs concentrated right in region 3.4, substantial cooling on the way

@so_whats_happening Any MEI update? I would think that it went up more from last month given the OLR, -PMM, -PDO, +SOI, 3.4 SST states?

Really a shame. Over the last several years we have lost some great people here….HM, Isotherm, Raindance…..

GEFS, EPS, GEPS still showing the MJO 4-6 pass. Given that, coupled with the increasing -IOD, this should result in a rather healthy EWB/enhanced trades and continued cooling in region 3.4 coming up. SOI up to +15

Obviously subject to change, but looking at the extended, long range on the ensembles, it does appear that we may be headed for a warmer to much warmer than normal pattern as we go into the end of this month, gives support to Roundy’s idea of a warm end to the month going into November….

I know you’re not expecting that. I wanted to look into the antecedent conditions data for the ones that did for when I do my winter write up next month

Possible November warmth aside, I’m just curious as to which and how many La Niña’s had a warmer than normal December then went on to have a cold/snowy January-March or February-March. I never actually never looked into that, if you know? If not, maybe @bluewave or @donsutherland1 would?

Assuming you are correct and December is warmer than normal, and yes the models do show that, how many and which La Niña winters had a warmer than normal December then went on to have a cold and snowy January-March? Or at least a cold and snowy February-March? It’s also looking like November may be warmer than normal too based on the progression of the tropical forcing per Paul Roundy: