snowman19

After what the abysmal GFS just pulled for this weekend, it could tell me the sky is blue and I wouldn’t believe it

While water restrictions are definitely a very serious concern, I think the bigger issue is the wildfires we saw in the fall starting up again. Mid-late March is when brush fire season gets going and we are still in the same dry/drought boat we were in back in the fall

Agreed. Winter ended on 2/20 with the overnight ULL light snow event. I think we’re very likely done with true arctic cold and accumulating snows until December

The “strat warm”/final warming is too little, too late. Game over. Before any impacts are even felt with the lag, if there are even any tropospheric impacts that is, since literally every stratospheric event in the last 5 months (since November) has failed to downwell and couple, we will be into astronomical spring at that point. I’m going to laugh if we see benchmark coastal lows with temps in the mid 40’s and rain come late March and early April lol Then again, it doesn’t rain anymore so…..

I don’t believe it’s going to couple with the troposphere….none of the stratospheric events in the last 5 months (since November) have and I’m not seeing any indications that this one will either. And even if it did, it’ll be spring. Maybe it mutes the warmup the 2nd half of March? But as far as it descending the east back into deep winter with arctic cold and mountains of snow from 3/20-4/15 like JB and Mark Margavage are wishcasting? Lmfaoooo

Maybe we can actually get a rain event to overperform for the 1st time since early August….

Reminiscent of the very early 2016 FW

I knew the second I saw JB hyping the weekend for a big I-95 snowstorm it was doomed

Best of luck and God speed! Prepare to be completely disappointed again like the last 5 months. By 0z tonight, it will be back to showing less than a half inch of snow @Heisy The UKMET looks good?? Huh?? It has nothing. You guys are chasing ghosts again. How many times are you willing to do this over the last 5 months and end up failing??

No other model is even remotely close to the op GFS and I’m willing to bet my paycheck that the 12z GEFS looks nothing like that either

This winter was dry as hell. Haven’t seen anything like this since 2001-02

Chasing ghosts

After 3/10, I think any consistent cold is done

The fat lady is standing at the mic and is about to sing on this winter. This coming weekend is a unanimous nothing burger on all the models now. Just more of the same completely uncooperative northern/southern branches; lack of phasing we’ve seen for the past 5 months, then the pattern flips to warm after 3/10…..

I honestly can’t think of any recent winter’s that were this hostile to any major snowstorms in the metro area, literally every storm has trended worse as we got closer…..starting with the Thanksgiving storm the end of November right up until now. Over the last 10 years, we’ve had at least one event trend better as we got closer, this year, nothing at all. It has found every way possible to completely avoid any major snowstorms this winter

Looks like we are going to see our warmest temps since early November during that time frame

15F here. This is likely the last time we see mid-teens until December….

I agree. Whether this mid-month event gets classified as an actual major SSWE or an early FW, it’s going to be too little, too late. It looks extremely unlikely to propagate down and couple into the troposphere and even if it did, it will be astronomical spring by the time any effects would be felt with the lag. Of course JB is in hype/wishcasting mode, saying deep winter is coming back from 3/20-4/15 and the east is going to go into an arctic cold tundra with mountains of snow. That’s how you know that scenario definitely isn’t happening. He’s the ultimate kiss of death for winter weather in the east

@Donsutherland1 @Bluewave As you guys suspected, it appears that there is going to be no downwelling propagation into the troposphere with the upcoming mid-March SSWE. So the trend of a total lack of coupling between the stratosphere and troposphere will continue, this has been the case since November with every wave reflection and displacement event we’ve seen. Further, the overnight ensembles look awful for a snow event next weekend in the NYC metro area and they all still agree on a major mid-month warmup to well above average temps. Given that we are now into met spring, after the Sun/Mon cold snap, it may very well be RIP winter 2024-25

The mid-March warm spell is still there on the overnight ensembles (GEFS, EPS, GEPS):

Cold-neutral ENSO in and of itself is not the problem. It’s when you have the other factors mixed in with it…..immediately following a La Niña event along with a -QBO and -PDO. He found a very strong tendency for a flat, equatorial Aleutian high and +EPO. He went into a very detailed explanation of why that is. Wish I still had that blog

HM did a huge, detailed write up the end of March, 2012 following the disaster 11-12 winter. He titled it “GLAAMourous”. I wish i still had it saved. He stated that the worst case scenario for an east coast winter is a cold-neutral ENSO/-QBO/-PDO immediately following a La Niña. He said that it very strongly supports a flat, equatorial Aleutian ridge and +EPO……

Where exactly is the -NAO block he’s talking about??

I don’t see how this becomes anything but an interior, elevated event. I mean if there was arctic air in place and blocking, sure. But as far as some folks on twitter hyping that this is somehow magically going to become an I-95 DC-BAL-PHL-NYC snowstorm? Yea, skeptical hippo here

The only possible way this works out for anyone anywhere near the coast is the total thread-the-needle, perfect scenario I described this morning. This is still an elevated, far interior event IMO. If this was Dec-Jan-Feb…..even the end of November….different story. If we had arctic air in place and high latitude blocking (i.e. March, 2018), totally different story