snowman19

“Buckle up!!”

The GEFS has it now too

The people who were hyping a historic, record east coast snowstorm (KU) pattern for 1/1 - 1/15, even mentioning blizzards, repeated tweets of “buckle up!” and invoking January, 1996 as a very good analog, look to be in the exact same boat as the historic arctic cold crowd

Once the RNA kicks in (especially in a -ENSO) you want some semblance of -NAO or the SE ridge will go wild, especially if convection starts firing in the SE….latent/sensible heat release aloft strengths the SE ridge. As we’ve seen time and again the models will grossly underestimate the SE ridge at range and get stronger and stronger as we move closer in time which ends up resulting in inland runner and cutter tracks when you don’t have a -NAO counteracting it somewhat

Those are RMM plots are noisy. The VP/OLR anomaly maps are more accurate and they show a decided push into the IO phases late month. Pray for -NAO to tame what’s likely going to be a -PNA/RNA developing

Yea, the models (ensembles and operationals) are showing the mid-late month pattern starting to break down with some troughing beginning to push into the west around 1/18

20-21 worked in February because you had a solar minimum that allowed the locked in -NAO/-AO blocking. The QBO and MJO progression was also different

Definite signal on the EURO for a -PNA late month

There are signs at the end of the month

When you consider that the models are likely rushing it some, that actual change is probably during the last week of this month

The 1980’s called, they want their winter back…

The ensembles are starting to hint at a late month retrogression and pattern change

The tropical forcing progression supports the pattern breaking down but after mid-month. The models are likely rushing it. It’s probably more along the lines of the blocking and cold starting to break down around 1/20 or just after

There’s a couple of issues besides the record warm Hudson Bay and the wide open waters there….The total lack of snowcover in the northeast/bare ground and the still unfrozen, open Great Lakes. That airmass, though arctic, is going to modify a lot by the time it reaches the east coast

As soon as I saw Joe Bastardi hyping big east coast snowstorms and blizzards for 1/1 - 1/15 I knew that period was doomed. That guy is the ultimate kiss of death for snow in the east. He curses it every time

This may well be a case of Bernie Rayno’s rule of having to wait until we are on the end/backside of the arctic outbreak before an event happens. 1/1 - 1/15 may well end up dry. It might take until all the blocking is breaking down and the cold is pulling out before something happens. Here’s a good disco:

^New February CANSIPS Expected tropical forcing:

So far, despite some early indications back at the end of November that it would couple, the strong SPV has remained decoupled from the troposphere. All indications are that it stays strong, which fits the -ENSO/+QBO/solar max states. Question is, like you mentioned, does it continue to stay decoupled? @bluewave

Obviously not 100% fool proof everytime, but I think the old Bernie Rayno snowstorm rule is pretty accurate. You get snow on either the front side or back side of arctic outbreaks. So it usually either comes immediately following an arctic cold injection as the blocking is setting up or just as the blocking is breaking down and the cold is pulling out. Does that rule work out this time? Who knows

The tail end of the month is when the CFS actually has some validity for the next month. Not saying it’s right but:

Remember when we discussed how the strong trades/EWB’s (shear/subsidence) and colder waters from the La Niña would destructively interfere with the MJO just pushing into phase 8 without any resistance?

There are certain hobbyists and even a few professional mets not just hyping, but actually guaranteeing historic cold and historic snows for the east coast in January, saying it’s definitely going to happen. “Buckle up!!” over and over again. It’s out of control right now. If it doesn’t work out for whatever reason, they are going to permanently damage their reputation and credibility for years to come. They will be regarded as The Boy Who Cried Wolf. People who follow wxtwitter don’t forget and they don’t forgive. If I was a pro met, it would not be a game I’d play with my reputation and credibility…..

At least cutters and inland runners won’t be a concern with that blocking. I agree, that we either see a hit or suppressed. All wave spacing and baroclinic zone placement dependent