snowman19

The only one I saw who suggested that the PDO might flip positive was JB back in the spring and early summer when he was having his 14-15 analog for this winter orgies

November definitely looks like it’s going to be a warmer and drier than normal month

@40/70 Benchmark @Typhoon Tip Here is a 2021 study on arctic sea ice loss and QBO effects. Per the study: “The stratospheric polar vortex in the northern hemisphere weakens in response to Arctic sea-ice loss during QBO easterly but strengthens in response to Arctic sea-ice loss during QBO westerly. The polar vortex state is not found to be as strongly modulated by ENSO as the QBO. During El Niño with QBO westerly however, there is an observed change in seasonality of the tropospheric response to sea-ice loss compared to the neutral ENSO state” https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2021AGUFM.A15I1771W/abstract

Yes, I think it definitely affects the NAO too. No argument there. I think it’s more of a potentiating factor on the AO when other +AO factors are present. This year, I have to agree with @Typhoon Tip that we very likely see a dominant +AO given the -ENSO/solar/+QBO/low arctic sea ice states

I remember reading an article a few years ago musing that the record low arctic sea ice was one of the contributing factors leading to the propensity of +AO/NAM. I can absolutely buy that. There was another theory running around the first year sea ice went very low that it was going to lead to well above normal/record snowfall in the arctic (increased evaporation/moisture) and cause a -AO winter. That was obviously a miserable failure and lead to a bunch of busted winter forecasts

Because I copied the wrong link. My mistake

Speaking of the polar domain, this is just ridiculous. Arctic sea ice. Even if someone is an AGW skeptic, they have to acknowledge that something we’ve never seen before is happening over the last 10 years:

Ever since met fall started, we have deviated 180 degrees from that year

Again, seasonal model, FWIW. That said, Canada can be way above normal at their latitude from Dec-Mar and still snow

Copernicus C3S FWIW:

@40/70 Benchmark Very good call on this being a CP La Niña months ago. You never bought into this being an EP event at any point in time

He is already doing his yearly wash, rinse, repeat ‘cold and snowy east coast from Thanksgiving through New Year’s Day’ hype. I have no doubt whatsoever that he will be predicting below average temps and above average snow for the east coast, December - March by the end of November. It’s the time of year where he peddles likes, follows, retweets and subscription money from his I-95 weenie base

Agree. Warmest waters still in MJO 4-6. That’s where the atmosphere is going to want to put the strongest and most persistent convection. And besides the marine heatwave there and in the North PAC around Japan, the heatwave around New Foundland in the Atlantic just refuses to budge

@Gawx And just looking at the anomalies, we should definitely see the +QBO continue to strengthen more this month…

It’s almost as unbelievable as you being a useless, clueless troll who contributes nothing!!

As of right now, I am very skeptical of a cold/snowy February. That would be very atypical of a canonical La Niña. 20-21 was a recent exception, but that was also caused by strong -AO/-NAO blocking, due in very large part to the solar minimum, IMO. At least for NYC, if December is warm, pray for a greater than 3” of snow total for the month. As @bluewave showed, there has been an extremely strong correlation over the last 30 years between total December snowfall and the snowfall for the rest of the season when you have a La Niña in place

Signals growing for warmer to much warmer than normal November in the east…possibly much drier than normal too, which would just really be a continuation of the anamalous dry pattern we’ve seen since late August:

Credit where credit is due….even for him. I remember another good call of his back at the end of January, 2011, he said all of the high latitude blocking was about to completely break down in early February and declared that winter was about to end. The weenies wanted to throw rocks at him and were ripping him apart at the time. He turned out to be exactly right

@Bluewave On a side note, you were correct about the Atlantic going right back into a +AMO look and that New Foundland marine heatwave is relentless

Unfortunately the MEI may not update for awhile but I assume it’s deep into Niña mode

IMO the North Pacific pseudo +PDO is what directly lead to the -EPO blocking and +TNH that winter

As far as snow, it was one of the worst in 30 years for the NYC metro area. Epically bad. November had nothing. December had 2 minor events both washed away by rain. January had a trace. February had a minor event early that month, washed away by very heavy rain, 2/22 had 6 inches of wet, slushy snow, which was the biggest event of the entire winter, then a very minor event the last day of the month and that was it, winter was over. Nothing in March. Nothing in April. 97-98, 01-02, 07-08, 11-12, 19-20, 22-23….the 6 worst winters since 1994

There has been some suggestion of 13-14 being a good analog….we are now completely and totally different in the North Pacific. It’s not even remotely close. By this time in 2013 it had already tipped its hand into a pseudo +PDO alignment. We are moving further and further away from that year: Here is the 15 day change, note the strong cooling in the GOA, Bering Sea and the across the eastern part of the Aleutian chain. It makes me very seriously doubt we see a -EPO winter: