snowman19

I think this ends up another record dry month and the drought continues unabated

I mentioned it before, but I think the risk is that my forecast of +2 - +4 this winter busts too low given the very rapid acceleration of AGW over the last 10 years

If anything, I think the risk is that my forecast of +2 - + 4 this winter busts too cold given the rapid acceleration of AGW over the last 10 years

My Winter Outlook Here is my winter guess/forecast. Not going into huge detail to bore everyone but here goes. This is for Dec-Mar: Oscillations (average) Dec-Mar: NAO: Positive AO: Positive PNA: Negative/RNA EPO: Positive WPO: Neutral PDO: Strongly negative AMO: Positive, w/continued New Foundland warm pool IOD: Negative, has taken on a decided negative signature the past month ENSO: (ONI) Central-based Weak La Niña/cold-neutral; RONI and MEI will likely be lower QBO: Strongly positive Solar: Very High, continued high number of sunspots, radio flux and geomag activity MJO/Tropical Forcing: Favoring phases 4-6, Eastern Indian Ocean and Maritime Continent forcing. Very strong standing wave/OLR/-VP in that area the entire month of October, pattern feedback loop Temps Dec-Mar average (NYC metro area): +2 - +4 Snowfall Dec-Mar average (NYC metro area): Below normal; *Hardest to predict given that one storm could skew the entire season* Main analog: 2001-2002 Reasoning: Record drought/low soil moisture, pattern persistence since August 20th. Very dry falls correspond to below normal winter snowfall. I believe this continues throughout November. Actually is a way better correlation than fall temps PDO/EPO: Is and has been record negative (-3), Persistent GOA/Bering Sea cold pools favor +EPO PNA: -ENSO, -IOD; favors Indian Ocean and Maritime Continent forcing (MJO 4-6) NAO/AO: High solar; high geomag activity, high sunspots, +QBO, -ENSO, +AMO w/New Foundland warm pool. AO: SPV projected to get very strong and very cold this month, fits with the above (solar, QBO, ENSO relationship). As far as the “SAI”, which I don’t follow for its very glaring failures in the past, but for those who do, Siberian snowcover buildup completely fell apart the last 2 weeks of October and is now perfectly normal. Not saying it’s completely irrelevant, but I don’t buy into it WPO: Marine heatwave east of Japan strongly favoring an Aleutian High/ridge regime, which I believe will be a flat ridge as opposed to a poleward one the majority of the time AMO: After briefly taking on a negative look late this summer, has gone right back to a positive signature. Atlantic SST profile has completely lacked any semblance of a “tripole” at any point since June; favors +NAO and beefed up SE ridge/WAR this winter, as does tropical forcing QBO: Already eclipsed +12 in September, anomalies showing continued strengthening in October. Strongest on record (30mb) is +15, we may approach or even surpass that record when it peaks this winter; thinking the peak comes Dec/Jan Arctic Sea Ice: Record low. I believe this will potentiate the +AO, +NAO. A recent study (2021) found that low arctic sea ice in combination with +QBO (especially in a Niña) results in a strong SPV/+AO Volcanism: Cumulative VEI 5 eruptions of tropical volcano Ruang, which reached the stratosphere back in April. Although this will clearly NOT have the effect of a Pinatubo, it *may* possibly help to magnify the other factors mentioned influencing the AO/NAM Atlantic ACE: Although ACE picked up to normal in October after being much below normal, it is still well below the 200+ number which has shown some correlation to the NAO in the past. So really no big signal either way on that. A non factor this time around Good luck to everyone else with your winter outlooks

There may be a brief, transient period with the tropical forcing? But overall? No

Here is my winter guess/forecast. Not going into huge detail to bore everyone but here goes. This is for Dec-Mar: Oscillations (average) Dec-Mar: NAO: Positive AO: Positive PNA: Negative/RNA EPO: Positive WPO: Neutral PDO: Strongly negative AMO: Positive, w/continued New Foundland warm pool IOD: Negative, has taken on a decided negative signature the past month ENSO: (ONI) Central-based Weak La Niña/cold-neutral; RONI and MEI will likely be lower QBO: Strongly positive Solar: Very High, continued high number of sunspots, radio flux and geomag activity MJO/Tropical Forcing: Favoring phases 4-6, Eastern Indian Ocean and Maritime Continent forcing. Very strong standing wave/OLR/-VP in that area the entire month of October, pattern feedback loop Temps Dec-Mar average (NYC metro area): +2 - +4 Snowfall Dec-Mar average (NYC metro area): Below normal; *Hardest to predict given that one storm could skew the entire season* Main analog: 2001-2002 Reasoning: Record drought/low soil moisture, pattern persistence since August 20th. Very dry falls correspond to below normal winter snowfall. I believe this continues throughout November. Actually is a way better correlation than fall temps PDO/EPO: Is and has been record negative (-3), Persistent GOA/Bering Sea cold pools favor +EPO PNA: -ENSO, -IOD; favors Indian Ocean and Maritime Continent forcing (MJO 4-6) NAO/AO: High solar; high geomag activity, high sunspots, +QBO, -ENSO, +AMO w/New Foundland warm pool. AO: SPV projected to get very strong and very cold this month, fits with the above (solar, QBO, ENSO relationship). As far as the “SAI”, which I don’t follow for its very glaring failures in the past, but for those who do, Siberian snowcover buildup completely fell apart the last 2 weeks of October and is now perfectly normal. Not saying it’s completely irrelevant, but I don’t buy into it WPO: Marine heatwave east of Japan strongly favoring an Aleutian High/ridge regime, which I believe will be a flat ridge as opposed to a poleward one the majority of the time AMO: After briefly taking on a negative look late this summer, has gone right back to a positive signature. Atlantic SST profile has completely lacked any semblance of a “tripole” at any point since June; favors +NAO and beefed up SE ridge/WAR this winter, as does tropical forcing QBO: Already eclipsed +12 in September, anomalies showing continued strengthening in October. Strongest on record (30mb) is +15, we may approach or even surpass that record when it peaks this winter; thinking the peak comes Dec/Jan Arctic Sea Ice: Record low. I believe this will potentiate the +AO, +NAO. A recent study (2021) found that low arctic sea ice in combination with +QBO (especially in a Niña) results in a strong SPV/+AO Volcanism: Cumulative VEI 5 eruptions of tropical volcano Ruang, which reached the stratosphere back in April. Although this will clearly NOT have the effect of a Pinatubo, it *may* possibly help to magnify the other factors mentioned influencing the AO/NAM Atlantic ACE: Although ACE picked up to normal in October after being much below normal, it is still well below the 200+ number which has shown some correlation to the NAO in the past. So really no big signal either way on that. A non factor this time around Good luck to everyone else with your winter outlooks

If the new EPS is correct we go into a torch-a-rama pattern come mid-month. Massive -PNA trough into the west, +NAO, +AO, +EPO and the SE ridge goes bonkers

100%. Based on the D-F 500mb, the Cansips would be a torch winter

@bluewave Ensembles now digging a massive -PNA out west come mid-month

The red flag was that the CFSV2 got warmer and warmer with November in the final days of October. The end of the month is when the CFS actually becomes accurate in sniffing out the following month. My guess is that the east coast drought continues and November ends up a well above normal month (temps)…..possibly a top 10 above normal November…. @michsnowfreak Yes it was very consistent with a warm November but got warmer and warmer in the final week leading up to today, which gives me even more confidence that this month is possibly going to torch

As the old saying goes “When in drought, predict drought…..”

The stratospheric polar vortex is going to massively strengthen during November

We are about to see massive strengthening of the stratospheric polar vortex during November

You ain’t kidding. November is starting to look like a dry as a bone torch-a-rama @Bluewave

Tomorrow will be the latest in the season I can ever remember having to use my A/C. The earliest was just after St. Patrick’s Day, 2012 when it hit 90 degrees

The ensembles look like a torch and a continuation of the drought for November

@GaWx Just looking at the anomalies, the QBO is clearly still strengthening. Last month’s number was +12 and I believe the strongest westerly/positive QBO on record at 30mb was over +15. Wondering if we may rival or top that?

Just saw 2 raindrops. Now the sun is back out

November is starting to look like a huge torch month, not only torch, very dry/drought continuing

November is starting to look more and more like a torch and not only a torch, continued very dry/drought as well. Also on a side note, just eyeballing the QBO anomalies, it’s definitely still strengthening positive

We are completely blowing the 01-02 drought out of the water