snowman19
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Everything posted by snowman19
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Once again, as has been the case for the last several years, it’s going to all depend on the Pacific. If that’s crap we are screwed even with a -NAO
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Given how this has gone since late August would anyone actually be surprised if the late next week possibility turns into nothing more than showers? And you know it’s been real bad when we are looking forward to .2-.4 of rain Sun/Mon
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The new EURO is showers, 0.2 - 0.3 total QPF for the next 10 days from the Mid-Atlantic through the Northeast
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That big GOA cold pool too
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One thing is for sure, with the -PMM (cold water off Baja), it supports a very muted STJ this winter and a very reduced chance of KU’s marching up the coast
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2020 is not an analog IMO due to the solar minimum which in very large part helped drive the high latitude blocking
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If the end of November pattern on the long range ensembles is correct, that’s a Bering Sea vortex, total lights out ++EPO pattern. That’s exactly what happened back in late November, 2011. It’s even worse than an Alaskan vortex
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As strong a signal as you will ever see (rest of this month)
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As strong a signal as you will ever see for the rest of this month @Bluewave
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The ensembles (GEFS GEPS EPS) are a general 0.2 - 0.4 total QPF Sun/Mon which will seem like a deluge
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I’m confident in either a central-based cold-neutral (ONI) or very weak La Niña
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@40/70 Benchmark This is going to become even more of a classic central-based Niña
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Blowvember - and not named for wind potential
snowman19 replied to Go Kart Mozart's topic in New England
EPS is not enthused at all, with a general 0.2-0.4 total QPF from the Mid-Atlantic through the northeast by Wednesday, which makes me view the GFS with extreme skepticism https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=epsens&p=qpf_acc-mean-imp&rh=2024110500&fh=204&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1 -
Hard sell on the SPV weakening. The Euro was awful with doing this last year early on in November/December. And there’s a massive trough in Eurasia exactly where you would want a ridge, which is going to allow the SPV to strengthen as much as it wants
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@Gawx Even more confidence in my guess of a hostile NAO this winter. And any word on the October QBO number? Edit: @GaWx Assuming a Dec/Jan peak, I wonder if we meet or eclipse the WQBO record (at 30mb) of +15??
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That’s a real good question. It’s clear that by mid-month the SE ridge/WAR is going to pop, then it becomes a question of how strong, which is going to depend on the trough in the west. The +AMO and New Foundland warm pool by itself is supportive of SE ridge/WAR. If the -PNA really dumps into the west then it’s probably more of the same on the east coast (dry) with a stronger downstream ridge @SnoSki14 @Allsnow And the GFS has begun a full scale cave to the drier Euro suite for Sun/Mon. Watch it turn into nothing more than a few passing showers. “When in drought, forecast drought”
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Not sure about THE warmest November, but I can absolutely see this being in the top 5 based on what the ensembles are showing right through Thanksgiving
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Agree. Showers on Sunday/Monday are not going to undo the damage that has been done since August 20th
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Warm Niña falls doesn’t have as strong of a signal as precip. The correlation to winter is stronger with dryness/wetness. Dry falls, in particular very dry falls have a correlation to below normal snowfall
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If the ensembles are correct this pattern lasts right through Thanksgiving. This is a very stable, feedback pattern we are in and have been in
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Fall dryness/wetness has a much better correlation to the winter pattern than does temperatures @donsutherland1
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I think more than the warmth (which has been going on for years now), the big story since August is the record dry pattern. We have clearly gone into a dry feedback loop and once they are in place, they are VERY hard to break
