snowman19
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Everything posted by snowman19
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The antecedent airmass isn’t all that very cold, we’re not talking unmodified arctic air. It all depends on a strong 50/50 low staying in place, acting as a block to lock the confluence and cold high in place. Otherwise the high just moves east, return flow, goodbye cold and it just cuts into the lakes as a rainstorm, a la this coming weekend
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The 1-2 inch snowmaps which count sleet as snow only showing that much are a dead giveaway. You are not getting 10:1 ratios, more like 8:1 or most likely lower, when you factor that in, plus the boundary layer temps which are going to suck, you are getting less than an inch. You were well in the 50’s all day today, even far NW of the city, wet roads, wet ground, going to be a lot of disappointments tomorrow...
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https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hrrr®ion=neus&pkg=asnowd&runtime=2019121018&fh=16 New Hi Res GFS is barely anything either
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That’s the only way to get Tues/Wed to work next week in this pattern, the 50/50 low needs to be strong and hold. If not, next week turns into a repeat of this upcoming weekend
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The last 5 runs of the op Euro and EPS have gotten drier and drier
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Yea pretty much only Snow88 and NYCWeatherNow thought this weekend was going to be a snowstorm
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Using 10:1 ratio snowmaps for Wednesday is ludicrous. The ratios are going to be lower than that, Bluewave explained in detail why before, to say they won’t be is wishcasting. Plus those maps count sleet as snow
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This is far from a “crushing” NAM run: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus®ion=neus&pkg=asnowd&runtime=2019120812&fh=84
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Exactly! And you aren’t going to have 10:1 ratios, they are going to be lower than that
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Once again, stop using the 10:1 ratio snowmaps, grossly, horribly inaccurate. Remember the last storm when people kept posting that the city was getting 6 inches of snow and it got one inch? That was thanks to using the 10:1 ratio maps. Here is the accurate one, compare: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=neus&pkg=asnowd&runtime=2019120806&fh=90
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Over the last 15 years, I wonder how many anafronts have actually produced?
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Central Park saw a whopping 1.5 inches of snow out of it
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https://mobile.twitter.com/WXRISKCOM/status/1202484903415291904
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You beat me to it, so far the HRRR seems to be the most accurate. It did very well with yesterday’s non event on the front end
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Here’s the more accurate depiction of what the 0Z NAM shows; 12 K: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus®ion=neus&pkg=asnowd&runtime=2019120200&fh=36 3K: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nam3km®ion=neus&pkg=asnowd&runtime=2019120200&fh=36
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You aren’t going to have 10:1 ratios tomorrow, they are so inaccurate, it’s not even funny
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Those 0Z 10:1 12K and 3K NAM snowmaps are very, very badly overdone, not even close, like not even in the ball park. Go to the positive snow depth change maps and compare. The difference is astounding
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New NAM total for storm: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus®ion=neus&pkg=asnowd&runtime=2019113012&fh=84
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There is a lot of sleet counted as snow in that
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It will depend on how far north the secondary gets going. The models minus only the NAM are moving it further north and west since last night
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There is going to be a lull after the initial WAA mixed precip to rain Sunday afternoon
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November 2018 had a much colder and drier airmass in place to start, there was also extremely strong lifting and dynamics in the DGZ
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I would be shocked if there isn’t a north movement with this storm on the models between now and Saturday’s runs. These secondary coastal transfers always tend to do that as you get close
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People are using the grossly inaccurate 10:1 ratio “snow” maps that count sleet as snow. They aren’t even close to reality, it happened all last winter
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It got warmer all the way into the Hudson Valley
