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snowman19

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  1. snowman19
    You and I have the same views here. I had been thinking March went cold and possibly snowy...I’ve since changed my view for the same reasons. I just don’t think it does the magical March flip this time, I think we go out 2012 style this year
  2. snowman19
    Per Eric Fisher, what the Euro shows is not snow, p-type algorithm issues: https://twitter.com/ericfisher/status/1223691070904639488?s=20
  3. snowman19
    No surprise, but the Euro looks nothing at all like the GFS and has wave 3 as a lakes cutter. The GFS is in a world all onto its own, huge outlier
  4. snowman19
    3 different waves yes, but absolutely nothing at all like what the GFS shows with over a foot of snow. Then the UKMET goes to a huge torch
  5. snowman19
    The operation GFS is the only one showing this, the GFS cold bias at it again. ICON, CMC, UKMET were rain, Euro up next...
  6. snowman19
    A cold rain for the NYC metro, enjoy!!
  7. snowman19
    You’ve been saying the models look good in the long range since the beginning of December
  8. snowman19
    Assuming February is another solidly warmer than normal month with below average snow, there has only been one instance in weather history, where Dec, Jan and Feb were all warmer than normal with below average snow, then went on to have a cold and snowy March, 06-07, In all the other cases, March was another warmer than normal month with below average snow
  9. snowman19
    It’s trending worse because NAO and AO blocking are non existent, neither is +PNA
  10. snowman19
    Agree with you here, that look by mid-February and beyond isn’t just above normal, it looks way above normal. This winter has been Deja Vu 2011-2012, it’s uncanny
  11. snowman19
    Just looked after I saw your post and if they are correct, wow, say goodnight and goodbye winter 19-20
  12. snowman19
    The forecasts that had the SPV weakening in February have all backed down and are again showing a strong vortex and cold stratosphere again. It’s nearing the time to pull the plug
  13. snowman19
    Every model, Euro UKMET GFS ICON CMC NAM is now dry for the weekend, they’ve even lost what little QPF they were showing yesterday
  14. snowman19
    It looks like a major RNA pattern coming up by mid-February. If that’s the case, the can is kicked until the end of the month or early March. At that point you can hear the clock ticking. After 3/15 it’s pretty much game over minus some anomalous freak snow event south of New England
  15. snowman19
    It’s over Johnny
  16. snowman19
    Yawn....
  17. snowman19
    Rain
  18. snowman19
    It looks -PNA/RNA going into mid-February. It’s becoming clear that a meaningful change in the longwave pattern for us is going to wait until the end of February and March, which I think is going to happen. While there can obviously still be cold and snow at that point, the clock will be ticking, met winter ends 3/1, Equinox, 3/19. Once you get to 3/15, sustaining winter south of New England becomes increasingly difficult; at that point, you are fighting against climo, sun angle and length of day....
  19. snowman19
    Yea it looks like we go -PNA/RNA for awhile
  20. snowman19
    The “snowiest” model (GFS) has backed down to a non event now at 6z. ICON, CMC, UKMET, Euro want nothing to do with the weekend and for good reason
  21. snowman19
    The Euro is even further OTS than the CMC, like next to no precip at all this weekend
  22. snowman19
    @bluewave Pointed this out yesterday, you have a raging fast, record PAC jet circling almost the entire globe, blasting right into the west coast. Any +PNA that tries to form can’t sustain itself, that strong jet just crashes right into it and knocks it down as fast as it pops up
  23. snowman19
    All southern stream and a low in the Great Lakes
  24. snowman19
    This! The setup is really horrible. No -NAO, no -AO, no 50/50 low, +EPO, +WPO, a positively tilted trough, and a marginal, weak +PNA that isn’t really poleward. When you combine this with the fact that there is a very putrid Pacific airmass over us with no arctic high locked in over SE Canada to funnel the cold down, good luck getting a snowstorm in the metro area this weekend
  25. snowman19
    Lmaooo exactly. There is absolutely no comparison whatsoever to Boxing Day, zero lol. You had an extreme -NAO and -AO and deep arctic air with a banana high in place, strong 50/50 low, among other things, nothing is similar to this weekend
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