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snowman19

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Everything posted by snowman19

  1. snowman19
    It moved up by quite a bit. We go RNA, trough dumped into the west by 1/21 now
  2. snowman19
    What are your thoughts on the 1/16 - 1/19 period? IMO, I’m thoroughly unimpressed, I doubt we see anything more than FROPA. The setup stinks, the airmass stinks, not sure what some like about it honestly. I think we are in for a mostly boring 9 days coming up
  3. snowman19
    I think the real wild card will be March. Niña March’s can go either way, some turn cold, some stay warm. February tends to be the torch month in a Niña due to the tropical forcing. Plus you have the very short wavelengths in March, which lead to some crazy outcomes at times
  4. snowman19
    Agreed. The -PNA/Aleutian ridge pattern starts emerging on 1/22 and is fully in place come 1/25, it’s definitely in the believable range now and sped up by over a week
  5. snowman19
    The GEFS has now joined the EPS and the GEPS in showing a big Aleutian ridge, -PNA/RNA by 1/25. Unanimous agreement. It would appear that the long awaited canonical La Niña response is on the way
  6. snowman19
    The -PMM is rapidly strengthening right now. This should lead to the weakening of the STJ and a more Niña like response in the atmosphere. Also, the PDO is getting more deeply negative
  7. snowman19
    The -EPO bias has been very severe for years now with all models, in particular the GEFS. The GEFS will insist on -EPO blocking run after run and won’t let it go until the last second, meanwhile the EPS and GEPS already figured out it wasn’t happening 10 runs earlier and dropped it. It’s been the GEFS’s MO for several winters in a row now, they’ve all been pretty horrible with that bias
  8. snowman19
    2014 had a severely negative EPO and a severely positive PDO, neither of which we are going to have. It also did not have a solidly moderate La Niña like we have now. It also featured an extremely positive NAO and AO
  9. snowman19
    Yep, it’s actually moving up the Niña pattern flip earlier instead of keeping it way out in the long range and not moving it forward in time. Now, it wants to pump an Aleutian ridge and dump a full latitude trough into the west (-PNA/RNA) by 1/24. The advertised late month pattern flip to canonical La Niña seems like it’s going to be real
  10. snowman19
    As expected, the -EPO has disappeared and the +PNA is getting weaker and weaker as we move forward in time, the raging PAC jet keeps crashing into any +PNA ridge that tries to develop and knocks it right back down. I guess the PAC side is just not going to cooperate through 1/19
  11. snowman19
    The GEPS looks just as bleak as the other 2 models right through 1/19
  12. snowman19
    Another modeled -EPO fail incoming. The beat goes on....hit the repeat button
  13. snowman19
    It’s not a wishcast. It’s actually happening. In fact it’s now a west-based La Niña. The coldest anomalies are in region 4, and region 4 continues to drop. There is no rapid weakening, the trade winds are screaming, we’re in the midst of a huge burst and the SOI is positive as hell. That rapid weakening forecast is going to be dead wrong, the CFS nailed this
  14. snowman19
    More importantly, the Niña is not rapidly weakening at all like some were saying the Euro showed. In fact, region 4 is still dropping. The Euro is going to be wrong.
  15. snowman19
    This is why it holds weight that the models are showing a canonical Niña look at the end of this month and into February: Nino region 4 is over -1.0C....can’t remember when it’s been this cold:
  16. snowman19
    It’s not only weakening the +PNA it’s lost the -EPO, which isn’t a shock, it’s been doing that for years now
  17. snowman19
    Agreed. It is not a good look for us through at least 1/16. The window for us to score is definitely narrowing, I’d say the time to watch is 1/17 - 1/28....by 1/28, the models want to go canonical La Niña; Aleutian ridge, -PNA/+EPO and they start to quickly lose the -AO/-NAO couplet, both are going positive in the closing days of this month. Far out obviously, but right now it doesn’t look pretty going into the beginning of February
  18. snowman19
    Agree. It’s probably going to be post 1/16 for any real snow threats
  19. snowman19
    We need to score in the next 3 weeks IMO. Think we have a good shot too, especially after 1/16 or so. I think the pattern becomes hostile at the tail end of this month and February
  20. snowman19
    Isotherm thinks the shift to canonical Niña at the end of this month and February is real. It would fit Niña climo
  21. snowman19
    I was waiting for the CMC to have one of its classic overamped rogue runs....there it is lol
  22. snowman19
    That would fit the classic La Niña “playbook” perfectly. Usually the canonical Niña pattern establishes itself at the end of January/beginning of February as the tropical convective forcing moves to the Maritime Continent
  23. snowman19
    Exactly. If something is going to happen, more than likely it’s post 1/16 or so
  24. snowman19
    It looks like they want to pop a big Aleutian ridge at the end of this month. Whether or not that actually happens is the big question since we are talking almost 4 weeks away....
  25. snowman19
    The op Euro has been garbage so far this winter, not only too amped, but has been flip flopping like crazy
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