Jump to content

snowman19

Daily Post Limited Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    8,716

  • Joined

 Content Type 

Everything posted by snowman19

  1. snowman19
    Deep winter should show up in March as per usual for the last several winters lol March has become the new January
  2. snowman19
    Tomorrow, Thurs, Fri, Sat are going to be brutally cold. Legit arctic outbreak
  3. snowman19
    Yea I’m going to go with loss of power/heat on that lol
  4. snowman19
    Well, if the 10:1 ratio maps are showing that little, it means virtually no snow and all ice. But you go ahead and root for an ice storm. I hope you loose power for days on end through the cold snap after and your pipes all burst :-)
  5. snowman19
    Ditto for the HRDPS, under an inch. The 12K and 3K NAM are barely 2 inches up here. HRDPS: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hrdps&region=neus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2019121618&fh=42 12K: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus&region=neus&pkg=asnowd&runtime=2019121618&fh=42 3K: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nam3km&region=neus&pkg=asnowd&runtime=2019121618&fh=42
  6. snowman19
    The new RGEM just went way north on the snow accumulations, even the 10:1 ratio map shows barely an inch even up in Rockland County. The RGEM is normally too cold. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=rgem&region=neus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2019121618&fh=40
  7. snowman19
    People need to look at the sounding on the NAM, that’s definitely not snow north and west of the city, there is a very pronounced mid-level warm nose. Verbatim, that’s a nasty ice storm NW of NYC if correct
  8. snowman19
    Yea that initial WAA moisture slug just dies. The frontogen forcing completely collapses as it approaches the area tomorrow. The new RGEM shows it really well, it barely has an inch of snow in my neck of the woods now
  9. snowman19
    This. Those 10:1 ratio maps are way, way overdone. Showing sleet as snow. In reality it’s barely an inch of snow up here and less than an inch for city
  10. snowman19
    Just yesterday morning, Joe Bastardi was hyping tomorrow into Tuesday as a 3-6 inch event with amounts up to 8 inches in NYC. Now, it’s a 1-2 inches of snow and sleet event even up here in Rockland, less than an inch for NYC
  11. snowman19
    WWA for Rockland, 1-2 inches of snow and sleet, followed by freezing rain/ice accumulation
  12. snowman19
    Either the GFS/GEFS is going to score a rare coup or it’s going to bust horribly. The Euro/EPS, CMC/GEPS and UKMET are in agreement with a completely different solution with that low in the Great Lakes
  13. snowman19
    The NAM wants nothing to do with it. It’s now showing half an inch of snow total, even up here. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus&region=neus&pkg=asnowd&runtime=2019121512&fh=81
  14. snowman19
    Yea, the 10:1 ratio snowmaps aren’t going to work for this one either. There’s a lot of sleet in there getting counted as snow and the ratios are lower than 10:1 again. This isn’t a deep arctic airmass in place Monday and the models always underestimate the mid-level WAA/warm nose until the last minute
  15. snowman19
    You did it for me
  16. snowman19
    The Euro is showing an extremely ugly PAC developing, wow
  17. snowman19
    Yes, the type of -NAO and the strength matters, a weak or even moderate -NAO or an east-based -NAO does you no good at all when the PAC is total garbage. When the PAC is real bad, you need a strong/very strong Greenland blocked, west-based negative NAO. You also need a strong/very strong -AO to go along with it or you’re going to have big, big problems
  18. snowman19
    A +PNA ridge doesn’t help you with a very strong PAC jet crashing into it, it gets blown apart as fast as it forms, see last winter. If that’s going to be the case again, the Atlantic and arctic sides need to cooperate and compensate for what’s happening on the Pacific side with very strong blocks (west-based -NAO Greenland block and -AO) or you’re dead in the water again since our weather comes in from the west
  19. snowman19
    Yep. That was the problem last winter. Everytime a +PNA ridge formed, the raging fast PAC jet slammed into it and knocked it right down. When the PAC side sucks, in the absence of a very strong Atlantic/west-based -NAO “Greenland block” (and you’d also want a strong arctic -AO/-NAM along with it as well), the PAC rules the day, since our weather moves west to east. The PAC will always overrule the Atlantic and arctic in the absence of a very strong block/blocks
  20. snowman19
    He’s trying to say the Euro is trending towards the op GFS at day 10 if you could believe it. And he wonders why he’s called a weenie....
  21. snowman19
    Because the GFS is so accurate at Day 10. It flip flops like pancakes at IHOP. By far the most horrible model out there
  22. snowman19
    Imagine if the GFS was actually a good model? Lol Snow88 will believe the op GFS though, “It showed it for many runs” lol
  23. snowman19
    How was your white rain this morning? Lol
  24. snowman19
    The antecedent airmass isn’t all that very cold, we’re not talking unmodified arctic air. It all depends on a strong 50/50 low staying in place, acting as a block to lock the confluence and cold high in place. Otherwise the high just moves east, return flow, goodbye cold and it just cuts into the lakes as a rainstorm, a la this coming weekend
  25. snowman19
    The 1-2 inch snowmaps which count sleet as snow only showing that much are a dead giveaway. You are not getting 10:1 ratios, more like 8:1 or most likely lower, when you factor that in, plus the boundary layer temps which are going to suck, you are getting less than an inch. You were well in the 50’s all day today, even far NW of the city, wet roads, wet ground, going to be a lot of disappointments tomorrow...
×
×
  • Create New...