snowman19

36 here in Sloatsburg, down a degree from 37 an hour ago. This should be about as low as we get for this one. This mid-level warmth has already punched in, not expecting much more than rain from this one, maybe a few sleet pellets at the start, but this is going to be mainly rain for us

Agree. This is an 84 and north event. I’d honestly want to be north of 84 for this one

Problem is the 10:1 ratio snowmaps, first off, those ratios are not happening, they will be much lower, second, they count sleet as snow. The boundary layer is going to suck. Highs are approaching 40 degrees that day even up here in Rockland County

Not saying it doesn’t look good for storms, if you want cold, it’s ugly, real ugly. @MJO812 for the 100th time, ugly for getting arctic cold

That is a very ugly PAC. EPO floodgates wide open

Yea, +3 in January can snow. I’m really at a loss to explain where the twitterologists are getting this super cold arctic pattern from. Is it possibly a snow pattern in January if we can pop a +PNA? Yea. Arctic, “polar vortex” death pattern? Not even close, there’s no cross-polar flow. Wishcasting galore right now

The new NAM solution doesn’t make sense, it’s absolutely torching the mid-levels and still printing out snow. You ain’t snowing with mid-level warmth like that. I’ll sell that run

It may even be just slightly after mid-month but I agree with you guys. We definitely need a favorable PAC side, period, or we will have issues. Then the question becomes do we go into a classic canonical La Niña February as the tropical convective forcing moves to the maritime continent? We’ll have a better idea around mid-month, I think

How exactly will it definitely improve the PAC? And how does it not matter at all if all the cold ends up on the other side of the pole?

If you think Monday is a snowstorm setup, I don’t know what to tell you. In fact, it may actually end up being a cutter

Agree. The GFS has no credibility whatsoever anymore. This is a horrid antecedent airmass and everything would have to literally be 100% perfect, flawless, to get a snowstorm in the metro area. I’ll sell on a snowstorm for Monday

Besides the bad PAC, we have this fact, Don warned that this SSW may end up benefiting Eurasia @donsutherland1 @bluewave...

Good post. Horrible PAC side with the block trapping the garbage. Not the results you want to see. I don’t care what Eric Webb says, he’s the same guy who arrogantly forecasted massive, historic -EPO blocking for this month back in November, which obviously has been a monumental bust.

Agree 100%. It would need to be the definition of thread the needle for the metro area to get snow. The airmass is putrid, the wave spacing isn’t that great and yea, the PAC sucks

The last storm it sure didn’t. It overdid the confluence/cold and suppressed the storm so severely that it had areas which got 40+ inches of snow barely getting 4 inches. One of the most epic busts of all time. It also totally missed the mid-level warm nose over the metro area

He’s extremely arrogant and condescending. Back in November he was hyping a “huge”, “historic” -EPO coming for December. He actually had an attitude towards anyone who questioned it. That turned into an epic fail. Not surprisingly that he’s back on the hype train for January. Everything is historic, huge and epic to him, and don’t you dare question him.....

The GFS is very likely too cold as usual, i.e. the last storm. The fact that it’s colder than all other guidance is a red flag. It’s bias at play again

Looks like the EPS wants no part of it at all so far

What is it showing? Just saw a tweet saying it was showing a miss, nothing. Not around my computer right now

The NAO block is too far south, it’s linking up with the WAR, so it does us no good

Horrible setup. That’s going to be a complete non event

A cooler rain for the metro area

You are going to have to go way north of the metro area to get wintry with this one. Like interior central and northern New England north

^This. I think some people forget that weather moves west to east in the Northern Hemisphere sometimes. If the PAC absolutely sucks, you are f-ed (excuse my language). I don’t care what the Atlantic and arctic are doing. The PAC trumps the NAO and AO. All -NAO and -AO does when the PAC sucks, is trap PAC garbage air under the block. That, and the fact that the depicted -NAO block is way too far south and is hooking itself up with the WAR is another problem in itself. As far as the “SSW” and “SPV split” hype going on right now on social media, please spare us. We’ve seen this movie before and we know how it ends. It’s the same cast of weenie characters hyping the same SSW’s and SPV splits winter after winter, after winter, with no understanding of how they actually work or happen

Yep and it’s real warm for our neck of the woods in the metro area too...upper 50’s