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snowman19

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Everything posted by snowman19

  1. snowman19
    Plenty of time for what? You live in the NYC metro area lol. In 2 weeks, it’s March then you have until 3/15 to do something then nothing but a very anomalous event will get it done. We’ve been hearing “good signs” “pattern flip” “ blocking” “ridge In the west” “-AO/-NAO” “-EPO” “on the long range models” since the beginning of December
  2. snowman19
    The GFS/GEFS has looked “great”, cold/snowy in the long range since the end of November....
  3. snowman19
    If John Homenuk (Earthlight) is correct and he has some very convincing evidence, we maintain a strongly positive AO, NAO and a strong SPV right into the beginning of March. His main analog is 1990, which had a warmer than normal March with below normal snow. The NAM evolution this month has been almost identical to 2/90:
  4. snowman19
    It looks like this same pattern goes right into early March, at least, it isn’t just going to magically flip on 3/1
  5. snowman19
    @Allsnow @bluewave A +4 sigma NAM index on the last week of February....I think we’re cooked into early March and at that point, you really only have the first 15 days to make something happen: https://twitter.com/SimonLeeWx/status/1227541123155005441?s=20
  6. snowman19
    It’s still a very warm pattern, just at that latitude and at this time of the winter, way above normal still means snow for them
  7. snowman19
    This tweet from John Homenuk (Earthlight) says it all, extremely strong stratospheric polar vortex the next 2+ weeks; as we turn the calendar to March, ++AO ++NAO -PNA/RNA +EPO. I think the fat lady is about to sing.....
  8. snowman19
    I’ll believe it when it’s within 5 days, Boy Who Cried Wolf lol
  9. snowman19
    The GFS is embarrassingly awful. Your tax dollars hard at work. And as far as Thursday trending to an all rain event....surprise surprise, you were able to see that coming from a mile away, just follow the pattern since the beginning of December. We’ve seen this movie before, wash, rinse, repeat....
  10. snowman19
    If we get to the end of next week and are not seeing actual, verifiable signs of a true major pattern change, not just fantasy day 15 model runs, I think it’s over. We will be heading into the final days of February at that point and once you get to 3/15, it’s over for the most part, minus some very anomalous event
  11. snowman19
    You are going to have to be north of I-84 to see snow of any significance at all
  12. snowman19
    The GFS’s severe cold bias is laughable. Pathetic model. It’s just finally getting a clue now, it should have that storm figured out sometime Friday afternoon.....
  13. snowman19
    The GFS is such an extreme outlier for Thursday right now it’s not even funny. No other model (Euro/EPS, UKMET, ICON,CMC,NAM) look anything like it
  14. snowman19
    The GFS isn’t caving from being the worst model out there. Its severe cold bias is well known now
  15. snowman19
    Yep nor does the ICON. It’s the GFS vs the world
  16. snowman19
    Euro/EPS and UKMET want nothing to do with Thursday
  17. snowman19
    No it should not have been. There is no cold high. It’s not a problem with thermals it’s a problem with cold air
  18. snowman19
    The EPO floodgates are going to be wide open. One of the ugliest EPS runs this entire winter
  19. snowman19
    Shocking, troughing back into AK after 2/16 and the EPO floodgates open up. Say goodbye to any cold that was left in Canada. Looks like the models are also strengthening the SPV again. This may be all she wrote for winter coming up....
  20. snowman19
    It has less than an inch of snow, total. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem&region=neus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2020020812&fh=180
  21. snowman19
    More fantasy snows from the Garbage Forecasting System. I don’t know what’s worse, that model or the CMC
  22. snowman19
    Garbage airmass, no blocking. And that’s the severely cold-biased op GFS showing that, not to worry, that’ll verify as an all rain event for our entire forum by Thursday
  23. snowman19
    Ugly is being nice. If that’s correct, no high latitude blocking at all, we go zonal and semizonal flow at the end of this month and all of Canada gets flooded with Pacific maritime air
  24. snowman19
    I wish I had a dollar for everytime the models have pumped a fantasy -EPO ridge in the long range since the end of November
  25. snowman19
    EPS looks like garbage again as far as the eye can see. If anyone is expecting a full scale pattern flip at the end of this month, it had better hurry
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