Jump to content

snowman19

Daily Post Limited Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    8,716

  • Joined

 Content Type 

Everything posted by snowman19

  1. snowman19
    It has less than half an inch of snow total: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=neus&pkg=asnowd&runtime=2020010606&fh=84 And the NAM did not come west, this is bad info: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus&region=neus&pkg=asnowd&runtime=2020010606&fh=84
  2. snowman19
    The extreme warmth back in March, 2012 was unreal. I remember having to put on my air conditioner a couple days after St. Patrick’s Day, temps were well into the 80’s
  3. snowman19
    The models have been shockingly horrible so far this winter, the NAM most recently with the two outlier runs in a row, the Euro has been exceptionally awful
  4. snowman19
    It’s becoming clear that any large scale long wave pattern change is going to have to wait until early-mid February
  5. snowman19
    Rendering the PDO and AMO meaningless, so only ENSO counts? Lol Wow, that is earth shattering if true and also proves a completely changed climate
  6. snowman19
    Bluewave, Out of curiosity, which other winters (12/1-now) in NYC had the same or close to the same amount of snow to this point and how did those winters turn out? Snowfall wise?
  7. snowman19
    One of the years mentioned that “snapped back” in February and March was 1993, however, just keep in mind that back then you didn’t have SSTs of 90+ degrees over a large area north of Australia with heavy convection firing over it like we do now. It seems to be a positive feedback loop developing with a standing wave in that region
  8. snowman19
    The EPS is a ridiculously warm pattern starting after 1/10. Overdone? Maybe, but even if overdone wow
  9. snowman19
    The only model showing a snow event in the metro area is the Euro. All the new 12Z model runs NAM, GFS, CMC, UKMET, ICON are strictly all rain events, once again. The GEFS just went way north into far upstate NY with any accumulating snow
  10. snowman19
    The Euro is all by itself, in a world all to its own. No other model shows anything even close to what it does. GFS, ICON, NAM, CMC, UKMET, all nothing, like not even a trace. That should be a huge red flag
  11. snowman19
    For what? It’s an all rain event
  12. snowman19
    That heatwave is creating a positive feedback loop with the SSTs there, warming them up even more, the convection just releases even more heat (latent heat) and keeps it going. Going to be hard to break at this point
  13. snowman19
    If that actually happens (phase 4/5, then COD and back to 4/5 late month), that would cook the rest of this month and into at least the beginning of February...
  14. snowman19
    The period from 1/10 on looks exceptionally mild. In fact the new GFS which is normally cold biased in the longer range has temps going into the 60’s in the metro next weekend, 1/11, 1/12.....
  15. snowman19
    Great job of seeing the warm January from a distance. The period of 1/10-1/16, at least, looks to be way, way warmer than normal
  16. snowman19
    Yea, how JB actually thinks 1/6-1/12 is a great pattern for east coast snowstorms is beyond mystifying. Twilight Zone right there, I’m expecting Rod Serling to come out any minute smoking his cigarette
  17. snowman19
    Kiss of death
  18. snowman19
    Not to worry, I’m sure we’ll go into deep winter once the calendar flips to March. Same repeating pattern progression over and over again
  19. snowman19
    I do too but if I’m a betting man, March is colder than normal and most likely so is April. For whatever reason and I do believe climate change is playing some role, the -AO/-NAO shows up like clockwork around mid to late March and locks in. You can set your watch to it
  20. snowman19
    The other tendency is for -NAO/-AO blocks to form in mid to late March and lock in through the end of April
  21. snowman19
    I’m also willing to bet that March is a freezer. It’s become a yearly tradition. May be climate change related in the Pacific tropical forcing, with the wavelengths shortening at that time but there is a huge tendency for both November and March to be cold/very cold months the last several years
  22. snowman19
    The GFS long range phantom cold and blocking bias is glaring, like really bad and has been for several years
  23. snowman19
    Over the last few years, regardless of ENSO state, there is been a strong tendency for both November and March to be colder to much colder than normal on the east coast, maybe just coincidence?
  24. snowman19
    Actually no one thought March was going to end up below normal in late February last year, since your memory is good enough for you to remember specific dates of my posts (which is quite frightening, creepy, weird stalker status), I’m sure you remember every model at that time showing raging zonal flow/RNA for March. It didn’t change until early March....
  25. snowman19
    So far, Isotherm’s winter forecast has been the most accurate....
×
×
  • Create New...