snowman19

If this is correct, then mid-late December turns mild. I believe December, 1988 (also a strong La Niña) had a +PNA run from 12/1 - 12/15 before it flipped. The late November strengthening period for this Niña has begun in earnest, the easterlies are really ripping right now and are projected to continue to do so well into December. Regions 3.4 and 4 are about to see another big SST drop from the upwelling. This is going to really limit how far MJO waves can propagate before they get sheared apart by the very strong easterlies and run into the colder waters....which is why MJO phases 3-6 are favored this winter

Yes. This La Niña is going to be right up there with the strong Ninas of 73-74, 88-89, 98-99

I speak only to the ENSO forecast, which the models have done an absolutely outstanding job on. They have been insisting on a strong La Niña since August, when everyone and their mother were doubting it

@bluewave Here comes the big Niña strengthening period for the end of November and December that the models have been insisting on since early September, they have actually done a great job. A solidly strong La Niña is all but assured now for the 20-21 winter:

There is no cold air, look at the EPO, it’s positive as hell, there is a massive AK vortex in place, flooding PAC maritime air into Canada. The +PNA isn’t going to help with that look. Stop listening to JB, the first half of December looks cruddy. Maybe interior northern New England gets something and that’s even a stretch

Lol JB is hyped so it’s sure to happen. The 1st half of December looks horrible for snow except maybe for northern New England

By far the worst model out there, embarrassing. Utter garbage

I don’t believe any model showing a -NAO in the long-range, especially the GFS. How many times over the last several years have we seen these phantom -NAO’s pop up in the long range modeling, only to completely disappear as we move forward in time? People keep falling for it. Until proven otherwise, it’s a mirage

Looks like a rather intense period of La Niña strengthening coming up. Easterlies are going to be ripping, regions 3.4 and 4 still very cold and dropping. This is going to limit how far east any MJO wave can make it, the cold waters and very strong easterlies are going to shear it apart

People see a +PNA and start yelling “it’s going to be cold in the east!!” No, not when Canada is torched because the +EPO floodgates are open. December, 2011 was +PNA and a torch. We are also going to have +NAO and +AO

Here is the new EPS through December 4th, no cold air or high latitude blocking to be found. If this is correct, December is in HUGE trouble:

People actually still listen to that fraud lol

So how bad are the new Euro weeklies actually? All I see on twitter is crying about how God awful they are, but no graphics. Some folks like to exaggerate

Lol the long range operational GFS hahaha

@ORH_wxman Do you think that is what is causing this:

From HM:

From HM earlier:

Good stuff. Here is a good tweet by HM from earlier:

@frd Just to add to your post, evidence is certainly mounting for a +NAM this winter, here is the thread Griteater made today:

@bluewave @Allsnow @donsutherland1 Good thread by Griteater, but a VERY bad sign:

Wouldn’t it be totally unprecedented for the +QBO not to continue to downwell into the bottom of the stratosphere? As far as I know, every positive and negative event on record has downwelled into the lower stratosphere

Yea, the Euro weeklies are very ugly through the end of December and there’s no reason to doubt them at this point in time, I think there’s reason to be optimistic about January though

It’s starting to look like at least early-mid December at the least may very well be a lost cause, possibly the whole month depending on how bad off we are to start it. A full scale pattern change isn’t just going to happen overnight. I’m starting to think this is going to end up being a January, one month winter for the metro as Isotherm and a couple of others have suggested. Very likely that February is a complete torch, March isn’t looking all that promising either

An AO/NAO disconnect isn’t going to help us with a PAC that looks like what the models are depicting in the long range now. You need both a very deeply negative AO and west-based -NAO to compensate for that disaster

Does anyone know what happened to Crankywxguy? He just called it quits for good on Twitter. It came out of nowhere. I hope it’s not something health related. He was definitely one of the better ones on social media, sad to see him go so suddenly