snowman19

The EPS was definitely huggy

No 50/50 low, No -NAO block, it can easily amp and cut, nothing to stop it

Best of luck getting snow anywhere south of New England next weekend. There is no cold air, you kinda need that to snow....

We’ve really been spoiled for the last 20 years. 2000-2019 when all added up and averaged out had way more anomalous cold and snowy winters than the previous 20 year cycle (1979-1999), which by and large were duds minus a few. It seems to go in 20 year cycles for the most part; the 1959-1979 winters were way more anomalous for cold and snow than the winters which followed.....

Until it’s under 10 days, and even then, I view these new model runs with extreme skepticism. The models have been making the pattern look great, very cold and snowy, blocking in the long range for several runs in a row, keep it there, never move it forward in time, then they lose it completely. This has been going on literally since the first week of December. It honestly reminds of 2011-2012 when the models showed a great pattern in the long range that never materialized from December right through March. AK vortexes normally are not in a hurry to just disappear without a fight. I’ll believe it when I see it. I still don’t think we see a true full scale change, if there is to be one, until the end of February....

Extremely marginal PAC airmass in place and that’s putting it nicely, no arctic high in SE Canada, +EPO, no strong 50/50 low, no -NAO block to stop it from becoming an inland runner/lakes cutter should it amp up....what could possibly go wrong??

The ridge out west is meaningless. It’s still a crud, garbage pac maritime airmass trapped over us. Same pattern next weekend. The Euro has been doing this ALL winter, it’s been absolutely horrible

This! It’s what some people don’t understand, all the +PNA is doing is trapping PAC air, even if a -NAO block were to form, it would just trap the crap PAC air coming in from the west at that time under the block. It’s a putrid maritime airmass

Agreed. I just don’t think that vortex simply goes away overnight. It’s almost always a process. If a real change is to actually come, I think it’s the end of February or even the beginning of March

If the models are correct, it even turns to rain in the Catskills Saturday

I think if there is to be a change it’s post 2/15, more like late/end of February. Vortex over AK setups just don’t flip overnight, they always stay longer than expected, then you have to seed Canada with cold again and scour out the PAC maritime air....that’s takes some time. Come March, with the wavelength change, IO forcing is actually cold, not warm anymore, so if we have IO forcing at that point, I’d expect a cold March, yet again

The EPS actually went north with the upper level low since the last run, a bad sign even for southern New England

Met winter ends on 3/1, which is what I said, extend it to the Equinox and you get 19 more days after (3/19)....

Why doesn’t he just throw in the towel right now instead of waiting until February like he wants to do? Once we’re into February, you have less than a month left of met winter (3/1). At that point it’s not even really a prediction anymore

It looks like the rest of this month and the first 14 days of February (at the very least) are toast. I should have stuck with my initial guess of 2/15 or beyond for a true change. Now, I’m honestly thinking more like late February, if it ever even happens in February. You don’t just snap out of a vortex over Alaska look overnight. The one thing I’m sure about is come early to mid March a massive -NAO block will develop and last right through the end of April. It never fails.....

The UKMET wants nothing to do with snow in the metro area for the weekend either, just like the ICON, GFS, CMC

Bingo! Kind of hard to snow when you don’t have any cold air. Doesn’t matter what the track is. This honestly looks like a late March/April storm

Bad fail for the GFS and CMC. The pattern looks exceedingly ugly going into early February, after next weekend looks to start the real ugliness, (post 1/26) not that this week looks good either....

It sounds like March outside this morning. Just woke up to all the birds singing outside my house. It’s like everything is 7 weeks too early right now, on Friday afternoon I saw a groundhog out running around

2 inches up by me. Finished up the way it always was for days now.....a 1-3 inch event

I don’t pay attention to the GFS this close in, I like the mesos, the NAM and HRRR have actually done pretty good this winter, the RGEM, Euro have done very poorly as has the CMC. I think the UKMET has performed better so far, it was way too cold last winter though

Of course as soon as Upton bumps up expected totals, the NAM backs off: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus&region=neus&pkg=asnowd&runtime=2020011718&fh=48

An AK vortex would be the kiss of death for February, it doesn’t get any uglier than an AK vortex

Agree with you here. This was always a 1-3 inch event, at best, as you can see the models are correcting warmer with less snow as we get closer, theme of this winter so far, expect this correction to continue through tomorrow. Would not surprise me one bit if NYC sees less than an inch and the N & W suburbs see 1-2 inches at best before a changeover. This setup was very, very marginal from day one

Nothing has changed whatsoever, it’s still 1-3 inches at best, 1” or less near the city: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus&region=neus&pkg=asnowd&runtime=2020011518&fh=84